NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Jamaica radar since the eye was visible on both sides on it.
https://i.postimg.cc/fbfhkfVp/Jamaica-Radar-Melissa-7.gif

Looks like the rain is already falling and they have days before landfall. They are going to get catastrophic amounts of rain in Jamaica.

[cheezyWXguy]

Huge burst in the northern eyewall. Let’s see how far it wraps around.

[mrbagyo]

explosive burst of convection on the NorthEast Quadrant.

[chaser1]

Whether it is just "a hair" faster, I tend to perceive a slightly more westerly motion then during last night & this a.m. I would not be one bit surprised to see a bit greater westward track than forecasted. As mentioned in the discussion, the increased vertical improvement would suggest greater influence by the minimal ridging that extends eastward to just north of the storms Longitude. The orientation of that ridge would imply to me that a 4-5 knot motion would not be that unreasonable. Realizing of course that all guidance is well honed in to a Jamaica landfall, I still think a landfall toward the very Western tip of Jamaica is plausible. There would need be a solid 6+ hours of such motion for models to slightly shift though.

[chaser1]

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3n2T.gif
explosive burst of convection on the NorthEast Quadrant.

Far far improved overall structure!

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1982118595036336375

[GCANE]

Had a number of eddies around this since last night from the boundary layer to 500mb.
Looks like they are dissipating.

[GCANE]

Massive, high-helicity tower firing off on the NE eyewall.
That should nail it,

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 251610.gif

[GCANE]

Not only the Caribbean is feeding this but the EPAC as well

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 251500.png

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HUGE hot tower just went off. We saw something similar right before Milton rapidly intensified.

[Beef Stew]

Would be shocked if she’s not a hurricane now. I feel like before too long Melissa is going to one of those hurricanes that ‘skips’ category 3.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1982122887264997637

[GCANE]

Usually when a strong RI occurs a EWRC quickly ensues right after.
Wonder if one will be underway before Jamaica.
Praying that it does.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Usually when a strong RI occurs a EWRC quickly ensues right after.
Wonder if one will be underway before Jamaica.
Praying that it does.

Not always. Laura never had an EWRC, and several other intense hurricanes have not had one. It will depend on the structure of the eye once it forms.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Last frames on satellite definitely are showing more of a Western motion
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[Beef Stew]

Usually when a strong RI occurs a EWRC quickly ensues right after.
Wonder if one will be underway before Jamaica.
Praying that it does.

Not always. Laura never had an EWRC, and several other intense hurricanes have not had one. It will depend on the structure of the eye once it forms.

Not to mention, Melissa still has 48+ hours over water… she could potentially even complete multiple cycles by then.

[GCANE]

Tower is tightening up the eyewall
Likely a pinhole in 24 hrs.

https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

[TheHurricaneGod]

I think that's 3 sustained hot towers going at once, near the center. There she goes

[cheezyWXguy]

Yep, this should be go time

[GCANE]

He is good.
Hope he finds a safe place when the going gets rough.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1982103189685244193