NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[GCANE]

Not only the Caribbean is feeding this but the EPAC as well

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 251500.png

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HUGE hot tower just went off. We saw something similar right before Milton rapidly intensified.

[Beef Stew]

Would be shocked if she’s not a hurricane now. I feel like before too long Melissa is going to one of those hurricanes that ‘skips’ category 3.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1982122887264997637

[GCANE]

Usually when a strong RI occurs a EWRC quickly ensues right after.
Wonder if one will be underway before Jamaica.
Praying that it does.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Usually when a strong RI occurs a EWRC quickly ensues right after.
Wonder if one will be underway before Jamaica.
Praying that it does.

Not always. Laura never had an EWRC, and several other intense hurricanes have not had one. It will depend on the structure of the eye once it forms.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Last frames on satellite definitely are showing more of a Western motion
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[Beef Stew]

Usually when a strong RI occurs a EWRC quickly ensues right after.
Wonder if one will be underway before Jamaica.
Praying that it does.

Not always. Laura never had an EWRC, and several other intense hurricanes have not had one. It will depend on the structure of the eye once it forms.

Not to mention, Melissa still has 48+ hours over water… she could potentially even complete multiple cycles by then.

[GCANE]

Tower is tightening up the eyewall
Likely a pinhole in 24 hrs.

https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

[TheHurricaneGod]

I think that's 3 sustained hot towers going at once, near the center. There she goes

[cheezyWXguy]

Yep, this should be go time

[GCANE]

He is good.
Hope he finds a safe place when the going gets rough.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1982103189685244193

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JamaicaObserver/status/1982109709982150875

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m not sold on the contraction to pinhole eye though, that eye looks about average sized. Good news is that probably means a Milton or Wilma-level explosion isn’t as likely, but bad news is a larger core won’t collapse as quickly into an ewrc upon reaching peak. Could still undergo one, but would probably stabilize for a while first. Won’t matter much either way though, it’s hard to bet against a cat5 peak at this point so Jamaica better be taking this seriously

[GCANE]

Not going to see an eye for a while.
Cirrus spewing from the hot towers will obscure it.
Probably a high-end Cat 1 within the hour.

[cycloneye]

I’m not sold on the contraction to pinhole eye though, that eye looks about average sized. Good news is that probably means a Milton or Wilma-level explosion isn’t as likely, but bad news is a larger core won’t collapse as quickly into an ewrc upon reaching peak. Could still undergo one, but would probably stabilize for a while first. Won’t matter much either way though, it’s hard to bet against a cat5 peak at this point so Jamaica better be taking this seriously

The worse part is that it will move very slow to prolong the effects for 48 hours or more on the island.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Radar is showing a west movement
https://zoom.earth/places/jamaica/#map=radar

[MHC Tracking]

Usually when a strong RI occurs a EWRC quickly ensues right after.
Wonder if one will be underway before Jamaica.
Praying that it does.

An EWRC would likely exacerbate the situation by broadening the radius of hurricane-force winds and in turn increasing surge

[MHC Tracking]

I’m not sold on the contraction to pinhole eye though, that eye looks about average sized. Good news is that probably means a Milton or Wilma-level explosion isn’t as likely, but bad news is a larger core won’t collapse as quickly into an ewrc upon reaching peak. Could still undergo one, but would probably stabilize for a while first. Won’t matter much either way though, it’s hard to bet against a cat5 peak at this point so Jamaica better be taking this seriously

I'm not "downcasting" but I remain a bit doubtful of a Cat 5 peak. Downsloping from Jamaica has interfered with the development of hurricanes in the past (see: Grace 2021), it feels possible that it does so here as well.

[BobHarlem]

Jamaica radar loop