NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Kazmit]

Eye is starting to pop out on both visible and IR

[TomballEd]

I think Melissa has gotten the dual VHTs, the arrows are direction. The northern VHT is moving fast
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3n30.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3n30.png

Now it looks like there are even 3 hot towers:

https://i.imgur.com/UJ1rnpo.gif

Watching that loop out another 8 minutes I may or may not be seeing the first sign of the dimple that becomes the satellite visible eye.

[StormWeather]

Tbh this storm may be closing in on Category 2 intensity already, but we will see.

[BobHarlem]

https://x.com/cfhc/status/1982175383253 ... ZdlrQ&s=19

 https://x.com/cfhc/status/1982175383253352953

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 80 kt for the advisory, although that is an uncertain estimate and Recon may find something much stronger. We may be playing catchup with special advisories tonight.

[Gladstone]

https://i.imgur.com/jUbxyTc.jpeg

Probably the worst place you could choose for a major airport in a hurricane-prone area.

Remember Sim City? That island is the perfect spot for an airport or power plant.

[aspen]

Tbh this storm may be closing in on Category 2 intensity already, but we will see.

I kinda doubt it. While the eyewall on radar is getting better, actual convection is still a little lacking. Likely a mid to upper end Cat 1, though. Cat 2 will likely be achieved once those rotating hot towers sustain themselves a little more.

[USTropics]

I think Melissa has gotten the dual VHTs, the arrows are direction. The northern VHT is moving fast
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3n30.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3n30.png

Definitely some VHTs induced by the dry air interaction with the moist profile of Melissa's improving inner core:


We have some dry air entrainment as Melissa starts to expand her convective envelope. Meanwhile, we have this moist inner core developing which has high equivalent potential temperature (PT). This creates these localized boundaries where inflow basically hits a wall, and we get enhanced convergence when the dry air hits the moist inflow (environment PT decreases, parcel buoyancy increases), and rapid ascent of warm, moist air takes place (our VHTs).

Each point where the dry air "hits" the moist core can initiate a separate updraft. The red VHT is optimally positioned so it has the largest vertical ascent initially. As teal continues to rotate towards the north, it gets more of those direct localized enhanced convergence effects. This is the response to balance two things: (1) the asymmetric structure that Melissa currently exhibits and (2) as a means to mix out the dry air intrusion before it reaches the inner core and disrupts the eyewall formation cycle.

[zzzh]

NHC calls for a 140kt cat 5 peak!

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1982190667842437507

[Sciencerocks]

[HurricaneAndre2008]

The latest on Hurricane Melissa!!

https://youtu.be/9F41gUjFu1E?si=QzCekCUhbZZZlOk2

[Iceresistance]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1982190667842437507

Is Melissa actually trying to close off a smaller eye??

[WeatherBoy2000]

NHC calls for a 140kt cat 5 peak!

If Melissa does achieve cat 5 intensity, 2025 would become the second Atlantic hurricane season on record to feature more than two cat 5s.

[aspen]

NHC calls for a 140kt cat 5 peak!

If Melissa does achieve cat 5 intensity, 2025 would become the second Atlantic hurricane season on record to feature more than two cat 5s.

And it’ll be the season with the highest proportion of Cat 5s relative to NS total (23%), which is utterly ridiculous.

[Teban54]

Sunset.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/1982194553382727690

[MGC]

I'm afraid this is going to be catastrophic for Jamaica. Not too often a hurricane is forecast to make landfall as a Cat-5, sure hope the forecast is wrong. Melissa is in optimum conditions to intensify and I see little holding the cyclone back.....MGC

[USTropics]

This last VHT into convective updraft burst is likely going to establish the CDO and let the eyewall really build with height now:

[sasha_B]

Really hard to say what recon will find at this point. Likely a strong Cat 1, as estimated on the 21z advisory, but what's more unclear at the moment - at least to my untrained eye - is the *rate* of intensification. We know from the MW imagery this morning that Melissa has the structure for very rapid intensification, and we saw an attempt at closing off an eyewall earlier this afternoon, but it doesn't appear to have been entirely successful. That said, the forecast discussion from the latest advisory suggests that the NHC doesn't think this delay will have much of an impact - if any - on the storm's overall intensification prospects.