NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1982190667842437507

Is Melissa actually trying to close off a smaller eye??

[WeatherBoy2000]

NHC calls for a 140kt cat 5 peak!

If Melissa does achieve cat 5 intensity, 2025 would become the second Atlantic hurricane season on record to feature more than two cat 5s.

[aspen]

NHC calls for a 140kt cat 5 peak!

If Melissa does achieve cat 5 intensity, 2025 would become the second Atlantic hurricane season on record to feature more than two cat 5s.

And it’ll be the season with the highest proportion of Cat 5s relative to NS total (23%), which is utterly ridiculous.

[Teban54]

Sunset.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/1982194553382727690

[MGC]

I'm afraid this is going to be catastrophic for Jamaica. Not too often a hurricane is forecast to make landfall as a Cat-5, sure hope the forecast is wrong. Melissa is in optimum conditions to intensify and I see little holding the cyclone back.....MGC

[USTropics]

This last VHT into convective updraft burst is likely going to establish the CDO and let the eyewall really build with height now:

[sasha_B]

Really hard to say what recon will find at this point. Likely a strong Cat 1, as estimated on the 21z advisory, but what's more unclear at the moment - at least to my untrained eye - is the *rate* of intensification. We know from the MW imagery this morning that Melissa has the structure for very rapid intensification, and we saw an attempt at closing off an eyewall earlier this afternoon, but it doesn't appear to have been entirely successful. That said, the forecast discussion from the latest advisory suggests that the NHC doesn't think this delay will have much of an impact - if any - on the storm's overall intensification prospects.

[galaxy401]

This appears to be an unprecedented hurricane in the making. A monster category 5 that will be crawling towards Jamaica. The closest analogy I can think of is the 1932 Cuba hurricane: Late season, very powerful storm that was crawling the Caribbean. Though that one missed Jamaica.

[Iceresistance]

That VHT has literally left behind a comma, that was one insane VHT


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nnI.png

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hard to think of a way this could come in at a worse angle too... worst of the storm and surge will be piling right into Kingston. 1.19 million people will be under the worst of a Category 5 hurricane that is crawling.

[Blown Away]

Hard to think of a way this could come in at a worse angle too... worst of the storm and surge will be piling right into Kingston. 1.19 million people will be under the worst of a Category 5 hurricane that is crawling.

Terrible, as close as Melissa is now, it’s literally 2-3 days from landfall!

[USTropics]

That VHT has literally left behind a comma, that was one insane VHT

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nnI.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nnI.png

Yea it literally rotated upshear, so much energy was being transported it was creating radial mesoscale-gravity waves. Basically the vertical transport of momentum and heat becomes asymmetric, and these rapid changes radiate outward as concentric ripples/wave-like bands emanating from the storm core we see here as the sun goes down. This definitely has been rapidly intensifying:

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is moving into lower altitude, so it wont be long before we know how much Melissa has strengthened.

[GCANE]

Minimal lightning associated with the hot towers

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone is beginning its move to the CoC

[aspen]

Not sure what NOAA2 is doing. They’re zig zagging across the southern coast of Jamaica. Perhaps they’ve been called for search and rescue?

Edit, nvm, looks like they’re heading in now.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/StormHQwx/status/1982207071488503867

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1982212411605090325

[ScottNAtlanta]

Check out the image at the end (shortwave IR) how it lights up