NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

The northeasterly flow over Jamaica’s mountains is already inducing rain. 3-4 more days or torrential rains followed by intense winds is nearly the worst case storm I can imagine. I’m thinking my 115 - 125 kts estimate of peak intensity in the poll is going to be very underdone.

[KirbyDude25]

Not sure what NOAA2 is doing. They’re zig zagging across the southern coast of Jamaica. Perhaps they’ve been called for search and rescue?

Edit, nvm, looks like they’re heading in now.

They were deploying a drone (both of today's NOAA flights with TDR did this)

[blp]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1982212411605090325

Yes and seems to be moving faster. Hopefull gets far enough west to limit impact on Jamaica even after NE turn.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The eye will bounce around significantly as the storm explosively intensifies.

[WaveBreaking]

The current set of VHTs is so tall that sunlight is still hitting them.

[Hurricane2022]

ERI may have started now. Recon already reporting 87 kt FL. The eye should appear soon.

[CrazyC83]

ERI may have started now. Recon already reporting 87 kt FL. The eye should appear soon.

That's in the back side of the storm too, although the slow motion likely reduces the differences between the quads. That would on its own support the current 80 kt intensity - and they haven't reached the eyewall yet.

[sasha_B]

ERI may have started now. Recon already reporting 87 kt FL. The eye should appear soon.

I'll wait for an extreme pressure drop between passes or visual cues like vigorous lightning surrounding the eyewall / eye clearing out on satellite imagery before I say "ERI", but that's mincing words....little doubt at this point that Melissa is intensifying fast. Just a question of how fast.

[Travorum]

So far 97kts FL winds and 970.8mb extrap, supports 85 and almost 90kts.

[BobHarlem]

Jamaica Radar Loop

[zzzh]

750mb FL 97kt. This supports 85kt

[Hurricane2022]

970.9 extrap.

[WaveBreaking]

972mb 970.8/20kt in the eye and a peak FL wind of 97kt in the NW eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

972mb/20kt in the eye and a peak FL wind of 97kt in the NW eyewall.

At least 85 kt so far.

[aspen]

I’d go with 90kt/972mb. I think we may have a major by 11pm at this rate

[Category5Kaiju]

Well, just looked at Twitter/X and saw that the legendary Josh Morgerman has made his decision to chase Melissa in Jamaica. Looks like things are about to get real!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Agree with 90 knots, potentially 95 knots pending what next few passes show

[Hurricane2022]

Jamaica Radar Loop
https://i.postimg.cc/4NfCxt5H/Jamaica-Radar-Melissa-recent-1.gif

The eye seems to be contracting considerably. What a historic and catastrophic weekend for Jamaica.

[Teban54]

So far 97kts FL winds and 970.8mb extrap, supports 85/90kts.

The last recon flights that ended at 13z were measuring 983-985 mb. This is a minimum pressure drop of 1.2 mb/hr (maybe more depending on interpretation). Even though far from extreme, it's still impressive considering Melissa seemingly ingesting some dry air in the afternoon, and that the previous recon was still finding an open eyewall intermittently.

[WaveBreaking]

It looks like Melissa is now trying to fire an entire semicircle of new VHTs in the W eyewall.