NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

It looks like Melissa is not trying to fire an entire semicircle of new VHTs in the W eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/lmPb0bf.gif

If the eye can wrap around those cloud tops, look out.

[KirbyDude25]

It looks like Melissa is not trying to fire an entire semicircle of new VHTs in the W eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/lmPb0bf.gif

Did you mean to type "now"? Regardless, it actually took a bit for me to spot the VHT semicircle because the entire CDO is so cold. Definitely taking off now (though we'll have to wait until the next pass to see just how fast)

[WaveBreaking]

It looks like Melissa is not trying to fire an entire semicircle of new VHTs in the W eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/lmPb0bf.gif

Did you mean to type "now"? Regardless, it actually took a bit for me to spot the VHT semicircle because the entire CDO is so cold. Definitely taking off now (though we'll have to wait until the next pass to see just how fast)

Yeah I meant to type now. Autocorrect got me.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/xiaoqianWX/status/1982221620241396041

[ljmac75]

Don't forget right now the NOAA plane is flying around the 750 mbar level, not 700 so the reduction to surface is gonna be around .85 or so. Max wind they got was 97 kt so 80-85 kt surface.

[GCANE]

There does seem to be a moat on radar.
Watching this if it persists and waiting to see what recon reports.

[HurricaneBelle]

Well, just looked at Twitter/X and saw that the legendary Josh Morgerman has made his decision to chase Melissa in Jamaica. Looks like things are about to get real!

With the airport in the harbor, he's going to need a boat to get home.

[Blown Away]

I’m concerned about Jamaica man!

[zzzh]

Dropsonde supports 971mb.

[GCANE]

107 knot winds at 907mb
65 knots at surface
Drop at max wind band

[Iceresistance]

Oh my goodness, lord have mercy

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nQv.png

[Blown Away]

107 knot winds at 907mb
65 knots at surface
Drop at max wind band

What’s your prediction for Melissa’s peak surface winds??

[zzzh]

F. CLOSED
G. C25

[cycloneye]

Eye is closed

URNT12 KWBC 252314
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132025
A. 25/22:47:22Z
B. 16.47 deg N 075.66 deg W
C. NA
D. 972 mb
E. 205 deg 10 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. NA
I. NA
J. 046 deg 97 kt
K. 318 deg 20 nm 22:42:05Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 233 deg 90 kt
O. 136 deg 15 nm 22:57:17Z
P. 15 C / 2442 m
Q. 22 C / 2442 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / .2 nm
U. NOAA2 1313A MELISSA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 97 KT 318 / 20 NM 22:42:05Z

[zzzh]

[GCANE]

Closed circular eye 25 nm wide

[zzzh]

Notice that both NOAA and AF report double wind maxima in the SE.

[GCANE]

107 knot winds at 907mb
65 knots at surface
Drop at max wind band

What’s your prediction for Melissa’s peak surface winds??

Asymmetry due to the shear may induce EWRCs quickly.
Anti-cyclone is barely moving.
I think Cat5 will be a stretch.
May see Cat 4 for a short period just because of the hot water and feed from the EPAC.


What do you think?

[ronjon]

She's definitely sliding SW now. Melissa becoming vertically stacked and being pushed now by the mid-level ridge to its north.

[aspen]

Notice that both NOAA and AF report double wind maxima in the SE.

There’s a bit of a double wind maxima on the NW side too.

Looks like there are some close outer bands on the radar pic you posted that could explain both. They seem close enough to the main eyewall to probably just merge with it. That, or the HAFS models’ scenarios of infinite EWRCs and an inability to fully clear an eye will verify.