Dropsonde supports 971mb.
NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
107 knot winds at 907mb
65 knots at surface
Drop at max wind band
65 knots at surface
Drop at max wind band
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Iceresistance
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Blown Away
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:107 knot winds at 907mb
65 knots at surface
Drop at max wind band
What’s your prediction for Melissa’s peak surface winds??
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cycloneye
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Eye is closed
URNT12 KWBC 252314
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132025
A. 25/22:47:22Z
B. 16.47 deg N 075.66 deg W
C. NA
D. 972 mb
E. 205 deg 10 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. NA
I. NA
J. 046 deg 97 kt
K. 318 deg 20 nm 22:42:05Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 233 deg 90 kt
O. 136 deg 15 nm 22:57:17Z
P. 15 C / 2442 m
Q. 22 C / 2442 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / .2 nm
U. NOAA2 1313A MELISSA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 97 KT 318 / 20 NM 22:42:05Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132025
A. 25/22:47:22Z
B. 16.47 deg N 075.66 deg W
C. NA
D. 972 mb
E. 205 deg 10 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. NA
I. NA
J. 046 deg 97 kt
K. 318 deg 20 nm 22:42:05Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 233 deg 90 kt
O. 136 deg 15 nm 22:57:17Z
P. 15 C / 2442 m
Q. 22 C / 2442 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / .2 nm
U. NOAA2 1313A MELISSA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 97 KT 318 / 20 NM 22:42:05Z
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Notice that both NOAA and AF report double wind maxima in the SE.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:GCANE wrote:107 knot winds at 907mb
65 knots at surface
Drop at max wind band
What’s your prediction for Melissa’s peak surface winds??
Asymmetry due to the shear may induce EWRCs quickly.
Anti-cyclone is barely moving.
I think Cat5 will be a stretch.
May see Cat 4 for a short period just because of the hot water and feed from the EPAC.
What do you think?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
She's definitely sliding SW now. Melissa becoming vertically stacked and being pushed now by the mid-level ridge to its north.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
zzzh wrote:Notice that both NOAA and AF report double wind maxima in the SE.
There’s a bit of a double wind maxima on the NW side too.
Looks like there are some close outer bands on the radar pic you posted that could explain both. They seem close enough to the main eyewall to probably just merge with it. That, or the HAFS models’ scenarios of infinite EWRCs and an inability to fully clear an eye will verify.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Lf0OfaD.png
Dropsonde supports 971mb.
Practically no shear reaching the core and the moisture shows no dry air at all.
Scary
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Also, appears to be just one eyewall tower.
Usually see two towers at opposite sides of the eye for a TC to really take off.
Usually see two towers at opposite sides of the eye for a TC to really take off.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Also, appears to be just one eyewall tower.
Usually see two towers at opposite sides of the eye for a TC to really take off.
Alex is saying he sees two towers
https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1982225900478357792
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Iceresistance
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:GCANE wrote:Also, appears to be just one eyewall tower.
Usually see two towers at opposite sides of the eye for a TC to really take off.
Alex is saying he sees two towers
https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1982225900478357792
I think it's because there's a tower inside the trailing area of the other tower
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nW8.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Pretty clear there are two eyewall towers now on opposite sides of the eye.
Here comes Cat 3.
Here comes Cat 3.
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Iceresistance
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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