zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Lf0OfaD.png
Dropsonde supports 971mb.
Practically no shear reaching the core and the moisture shows no dry air at all.
Scary
NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Practically no shear reaching the core and the moisture shows no dry air at all.
Scary
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Also, appears to be just one eyewall tower.
Usually see two towers at opposite sides of the eye for a TC to really take off.
Usually see two towers at opposite sides of the eye for a TC to really take off.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Also, appears to be just one eyewall tower.
Usually see two towers at opposite sides of the eye for a TC to really take off.
Alex is saying he sees two towers
https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1982225900478357792
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Iceresistance
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:GCANE wrote:Also, appears to be just one eyewall tower.
Usually see two towers at opposite sides of the eye for a TC to really take off.
Alex is saying he sees two towers
https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1982225900478357792
I think it's because there's a tower inside the trailing area of the other tower
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nW8.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Pretty clear there are two eyewall towers now on opposite sides of the eye.
Here comes Cat 3.
Here comes Cat 3.
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Iceresistance
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Blown Away
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Blown Away wrote:GCANE wrote:107 knot winds at 907mb
65 knots at surface
Drop at max wind band
What’s your prediction for Melissa’s peak surface winds??
Asymmetry due to the shear may induce EWRCs quickly.
Anti-cyclone is barely moving.
I think Cat5 will be a stretch.
May see Cat 4 for a short period just because of the hot water and feed from the EPAC.
What do you think?
175 mph max then down to 140 mph near landfall once the trough starts to influence Melissa N to NE. JMHO
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
The northern tower seems to be taking a deep dive into the eye.
May go pinhole quickly.
May go pinhole quickly.
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Hurricane2022
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:The northern tower seems to be taking a deep dive into the eye.
May go pinhole quickly.
Oh boy...Oh boy!!!
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
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For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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Hurricane2022
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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ECCE OMNIA NOVA FACIAM (Ap 21,5).
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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ECCE OMNIA NOVA FACIAM (Ap 21,5).
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StormWeather
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane2022 wrote:GCANE wrote:The northern tower seems to be taking a deep dive into the eye.
May go pinhole quickly.
https://i.imgur.com/C715dFA.jpeg
Oh boy...Oh boy!!!
This is reminding me all too well of Milton’s ramp up on this same satellite imagery from last year
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Just an average cyclone tracker
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Keldeo1997
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1982236539330412799
One thing to note is that the Eye will be in range of a doppler site for the whole RI phase and maybe a EWRC. Very rare to have that.
One thing to note is that the Eye will be in range of a doppler site for the whole RI phase and maybe a EWRC. Very rare to have that.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane2022 wrote:GCANE wrote:The northern tower seems to be taking a deep dive into the eye.
May go pinhole quickly.
https://i.imgur.com/C715dFA.jpeg
Oh boy...Oh boy!!!
Going all out right now, this is the look many of us were expecting (and dreading). This will be a MH very soon.
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Iceresistance
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
You do not see this very often, the MLC and LLC are perfectly stacked
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncI.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncI.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane2022 wrote:GCANE wrote:The northern tower seems to be taking a deep dive into the eye.
May go pinhole quickly.
https://i.imgur.com/C715dFA.jpeg
Oh boy...Oh boy!!!
At a bare minimum, the cold CDO is giving Eta flashbacks (even more ominous with the stall potential that both have). God forbid if Melissa clears out the eye more than Eta did...
Last edited by Teban54 on Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
HurricaneBelle wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Well, just looked at Twitter/X and saw that the legendary Josh Morgerman has made his decision to chase Melissa in Jamaica. Looks like things are about to get real!
With the airport in the harbor, he's going to need a boat to get home.
The GRF supports 14 to 16 helicopters.
Maybe they will put him to work with his satellite phone?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Keldeo1997 wrote: https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1982236539330412799
One thing to note is that the Eye will be in range of a doppler site for the whole RI phase and maybe a EWRC. Very rare to have that.
Hopefully that radar will hold up.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Keldeo1997 wrote: https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1982236539330412799
One thing to note is that the Eye will be in range of a doppler site for the whole RI phase and maybe a EWRC. Very rare to have that.
Hopefully that radar will hold up.
We need an EWRC with a strong digging trough full of dry air after she makes the turn NE.
Hate to see the wind fields expand before then but conditions are a little too perfect for rapid development.
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