NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Blown Away]

107 knot winds at 907mb
65 knots at surface
Drop at max wind band

What’s your prediction for Melissa’s peak surface winds??

Asymmetry due to the shear may induce EWRCs quickly.
Anti-cyclone is barely moving.
I think Cat5 will be a stretch.
May see Cat 4 for a short period just because of the hot water and feed from the EPAC.


What do you think?

175 mph max then down to 140 mph near landfall once the trough starts to influence Melissa N to NE. JMHO

[GCANE]

The northern tower seems to be taking a deep dive into the eye.
May go pinhole quickly.

[Hurricane2022]

The northern tower seems to be taking a deep dive into the eye.
May go pinhole quickly.

Oh boy...Oh boy!!!

[Hurricane2022]

Usain Bolt
 https://x.com/usainbolt/status/1981880511317332232

[StormWeather]

The northern tower seems to be taking a deep dive into the eye.
May go pinhole quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/C715dFA.jpeg
Oh boy...Oh boy!!!

This is reminding me all too well of Milton’s ramp up on this same satellite imagery from last year

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1982236539330412799



One thing to note is that the Eye will be in range of a doppler site for the whole RI phase and maybe a EWRC. Very rare to have that.

[kevin]

The northern tower seems to be taking a deep dive into the eye.
May go pinhole quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/C715dFA.jpeg
Oh boy...Oh boy!!!

Going all out right now, this is the look many of us were expecting (and dreading). This will be a MH very soon.

[Iceresistance]

You do not see this very often, the MLC and LLC are perfectly stacked


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncI.png

[Teban54]

The northern tower seems to be taking a deep dive into the eye.
May go pinhole quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/C715dFA.jpeg
Oh boy...Oh boy!!!

At a bare minimum, the cold CDO is giving Eta flashbacks (even more ominous with the stall potential that both have). God forbid if Melissa clears out the eye more than Eta did...

[Nimbus]

Well, just looked at Twitter/X and saw that the legendary Josh Morgerman has made his decision to chase Melissa in Jamaica. Looks like things are about to get real!

With the airport in the harbor, he's going to need a boat to get home.

The GRF supports 14 to 16 helicopters.
Maybe they will put him to work with his satellite phone?

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1982236539330412799



One thing to note is that the Eye will be in range of a doppler site for the whole RI phase and maybe a EWRC. Very rare to have that.

Hopefully that radar will hold up.

[Nimbus]

 https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1982236539330412799



One thing to note is that the Eye will be in range of a doppler site for the whole RI phase and maybe a EWRC. Very rare to have that.

Hopefully that radar will hold up.

We need an EWRC with a strong digging trough full of dry air after she makes the turn NE.
Hate to see the wind fields expand before then but conditions are a little too perfect for rapid development.

[StormWeather]

You do not see this very often, the MLC and LLC are perfectly stacked

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncI.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncI.png

Omg…just omg.

This thing is literally about to blow its top isn’t it?

[GCANE]

Nice graphics from Eric on TC Vortex Precession due to upshear

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1982232701521289389

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/PlaysSaheb/status/1982235264530411748

[USTropics]

150 frame loop of Melissa throughout the day:

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/xiaoqianWX/status/1982238889201778766

[Sciencerocks]

[syfr]

 https://x.com/xiaoqianWX/status/1982238889201778766

"Strong turbulence in the eyewall appears to be affecting data collection."

And the data collectors, one imagines.

[GCANE]

Looks like when Kermit will be in the eye and look up, it'll see AF301's running lights.