NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

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wx98
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#821 Postby wx98 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:22 pm

Looks like the plane is heading in for another pass soon. NE to SW. We’ll see if the intensification is continuing (it likely is).
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#822 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:26 pm

Image

Oh noooooo

Edit: Also how in heck did it get a annular structure?
Last edited by Keldeo1997 on Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#823 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:29 pm


Holy crap I have never seen anything like this before :eek:
Super thick eyewall with no banding

Removed image since it was the same, whoops
Last edited by Iceresistance on Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:39 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#824 Postby edu2703 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:31 pm



This is a WPAC-level monster
Last edited by edu2703 on Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#825 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:31 pm

I'm thinking it finds a pressure around 955 this pass.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#826 Postby zzzh » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:32 pm

Both microwave and radar indicate there is a thin rainband just outside of the eyewall (you can see the 2 layers). This kind of structure reminds me of Irma.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#827 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:41 pm

:double:

Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#828 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:41 pm


Absolutely no EWRC anywhere near occurring
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#829 Postby Woofde » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:43 pm

Teban54 wrote::double:

Image
Absolutely stunning how fast the eye popped and symmetrization occured.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#830 Postby Tekken_Guy » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:44 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Melissa single-handedly making the Caribbean from a graveyard this season to featuring potentially the most intense storm worldwide for the year.


It doesn’t look like it will top Ragasa at this point.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#831 Postby Woofde » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:49 pm

Tekken_Guy wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Melissa single-handedly making the Caribbean from a graveyard this season to featuring potentially the most intense storm worldwide for the year.


It doesn’t look like it will top Ragasa at this point.
It could be close, Melissa has plenty of time still and the SSTs are nonlimiting. However the environment isn't perfect and Jamaica is close enough to maybe put a wrinkle on the inflow. I wouldn't confidently bet either way.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#832 Postby sasha_B » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:50 pm

Tekken_Guy wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Melissa single-handedly making the Caribbean from a graveyard this season to featuring potentially the most intense storm worldwide for the year.


It doesn’t look like it will top Ragasa at this point.


Ragasa's official peak was 140 kts / 905 hPa (though admittedly in post-season analysis that intensity may be increased based on buoy obs.). Melissa is forecast to at least match Ragasa's wind speed, and matching its central pressure isn't at all outside the realm of possibility (several GDM ensemble members show such a scenario). We've got a storm with a nearly perfect structure, no signs of an imminent EWRC, and 36 hours before landfall...I wouldn't count her out yet.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#833 Postby Travorum » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:50 pm

Down to 959.2mb extrap pressure, and 114kt FL winds blend with 104kt SFMR to support 105kts.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#834 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:50 pm

Image

959 extap
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#835 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 11:54 pm

Travorum wrote:Down to 959.2mb extrap pressure, and 114kt FL winds blend with 104kt SFMR to support 105kts.

AF301's previous pass had 966.1 mb extrap, and the dropsonade supported ~967 mb. That's roughly a drop of 7 mb in 2.3 hours (3 mb/hr).
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#836 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 26, 2025 12:02 am

Instantaneous winds, but wow

Image
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png

Eye drop is 959 with 7 knots btw
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#837 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 26, 2025 12:03 am

Iceresistance wrote:Instantaneous winds, but wow

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png

Eye drop is 959 with 7 knots btw


That drop supports 958 mb - a drop of 9 mb in about 1 1/2 hours.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#838 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Oct 26, 2025 12:04 am

 https://x.com/WXappraiser/status/1982308179158647172

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#839 Postby Fancy1002 » Sun Oct 26, 2025 12:07 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Instantaneous winds, but wow

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png

Eye drop is 959 with 7 knots btw


That drop supports 958 mb - a drop of 9 mb in about 1 1/2 hours.

I’m about to head to bed, I really hope that drop rate doesn’t continue for the next seven hours. She’s trying to make her name in the history books.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#840 Postby Teban54 » Sun Oct 26, 2025 12:10 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Instantaneous winds, but wow

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png

Eye drop is 959 with 7 knots btw


That drop supports 958 mb - a drop of 9 mb in about 1 1/2 hours.

Did I miss something? The most recent eye pass that I could find from either aircraft was at 2:28z, which was 2 1/2 hours ago, not 1 1/2.
Last edited by Teban54 on Sun Oct 26, 2025 12:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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