NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Travorum]

Down to 959.2mb extrap pressure, and 114kt FL winds blend with 104kt SFMR to support 105kts.

[Keldeo1997]

959 extap

[Teban54]

Down to 959.2mb extrap pressure, and 114kt FL winds blend with 104kt SFMR to support 105kts.

AF301's previous pass had 966.1 mb extrap, and the dropsonade supported ~967 mb. That's roughly a drop of 7 mb in 2.3 hours (3 mb/hr).

[Iceresistance]

Instantaneous winds, but wow


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png

Eye drop is 959 with 7 knots btw

[CrazyC83]

Instantaneous winds, but wow

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png

Eye drop is 959 with 7 knots btw

That drop supports 958 mb - a drop of 9 mb in about 1 1/2 hours.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/WXappraiser/status/1982308179158647172

[Fancy1002]

Instantaneous winds, but wow

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png

Eye drop is 959 with 7 knots btw

That drop supports 958 mb - a drop of 9 mb in about 1 1/2 hours.

I’m about to head to bed, I really hope that drop rate doesn’t continue for the next seven hours. She’s trying to make her name in the history books.

[Teban54]

Instantaneous winds, but wow

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nV7.png

Eye drop is 959 with 7 knots btw

That drop supports 958 mb - a drop of 9 mb in about 1 1/2 hours.

Did I miss something? The most recent eye pass that I could find from either aircraft was at 2:28z, which was 2 1/2 hours ago, not 1 1/2.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/WXappraiser/status/1982308179158647172

I almost wonder if such a thick eyewall will allow Melissa to just spend the next 36 hours before landfall without an EWRC at all.

[HurricaneRyan]

this is gonna be like Ian and I'll wake up to a Cat 4/5

[WaveBreaking]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1431861979290800250/IMG_5367.jpeg?ex=68fef4e2&is=68fda362&hm=3b70e929e0ffcf966f74923b7d20b31cc6553698efb3073802b70ebacc79c3b8&

Oh noooooo

Edit: Also how in heck did it get an annular structure?

That structure reminds me of Cyclone Winston at its peak.

[Teban54]

Too bad recon left just before Melissa looked like this.

[WaveBreaking]

I feel like I’m gonna wake up to a monster in the morning.

[sasha_B]

Neither Erin nor Humberto had a raw ADT fix of more than 7.1 at any point, and Ragasa's never got higher than 7.2; Melissa has now had seven in a row at 7.2 or higher. Granted, constraints are there for a reason, this obviously isn't a Category 5 yet, and cold cloud tops in the CDO can lead to exaggerated Dvorak values - but I still think it speaks to just how impressive the storm's overall appearance is.

[Iceresistance]

Is this a full 360 gravity wave? (Image is dated by 15-20 minutes)


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3naQ.png

[mrbagyo]

Amazing gravity wave.
Kinda reminds me of hunga tonga's shock wave

[FireRat]

Amazing gravity wave.
Kinda reminds me of hunga tonga's shock wave
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3naC.gif

Melissa literally BOMBED

[WaveBreaking]

Is this a full 360 gravity wave? (Image is dated by 15-20 minutes)

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3naQ.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3naQ.png

Eyewall’s been spewing out gravity waves for a while now. That really big one came from when a large VHT wrapped around the eye.

[WaveBreaking]

Just to show how quickly things went from 0 to 100 (GIF spans from 10/21 to 10/26)

Going to bed now. Hope everyone stays safe in Jamaica.

[Iceresistance]

The eye temperature just hit the positives