NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Nimbus]

The wind field is still extremely small with hurricane force wines reaching out just 25 miles from center. The surge and rain is still going to be the biggest issue but at least the worst of the winds will be somewhat isolated.

I measure the eye to be about 29 KM across which will provide plenty of ventilation.
No need for an immediate EWRC unless she gets greedy.Trochoidal motion pretty much due west we aren't seeing a SW track shift as some models forecast.

[Teban54]

FWIW, both the FL wind of 114 kt and the dropsonade pressure of 952 mb (extrap 949) are weaker than NHC's 5am EDT estimate (120 kt / 944 mb). Although it's possible that the strongest quadrant hasn't been sampled yet.

[ATDoel]

Interesting, recon finding a weaker storm than anticipated. Since NHC overshot the intensity, (944 vs 952 actual) do they adjust or just leave the official intensity as is?

Pretty remarkable it’s only at 952mb considering the appearance.

[Teban54]

Sunrise.

[GCANE]

The high TPW feed from the Amazon was cutoff about 8 hours.
This may account for it leveling off at this point.
However, EPAC moisture is starting to flow across Nicaragua into the Caribbean.
Likely will tap into that this late afternoon.

[Nimbus]

FWIW, both the FL wind of 114 kt and the dropsonade pressure of 952 mb (extrap 949) are weaker than NHC's 5am EDT estimate (120 kt / 944 mb). Although it's possible that the strongest quadrant hasn't been sampled yet.

Could be due to a little eyewall expansion since 5 AM its close to 29 KM across now..

[USTropics]

Why it appears Kermit's making a UTurn
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ubq.jpg

When we see this descent and stall pattern in the flight path, it typically means they are prepping an instrument (most likely a saildrone here):


You can click on every flight data point with this web-app (https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... ing=cesium), really cool for seeing flight altitude and other parameters!

[Category5Kaiju]

Another Atlantic hurricane season, another "what the hell did I just wake up to" moment.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Wow...I kind of knew I'd wake up to this, but wow

[REDHurricane]

Interesting, recon finding a weaker storm than anticipated. Since NHC overshot the intensity, (944 vs 952 actual) do they adjust or just leave the official intensity as is?

Pretty remarkable it’s only at 952mb considering the appearance.

Looks like a bit of dry air intrusion due to northerly shear as mentioned by Levi in yesterday's Tropical Tidbits video, should get mixed out relatively soon I'm guessing

[USTropics]

Interesting, recon finding a weaker storm than anticipated. Since NHC overshot the intensity, (944 vs 952 actual) do they adjust or just leave the official intensity as is?

Pretty remarkable it’s only at 952mb considering the appearance.

Looks like a bit of dry air intrusion due to northerly shear as mentioned by Levi in yesterday's Tropical Tidbits video, should get mixed out relatively soon I'm guessing

https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMWc0azF4NXB2NGxsY3FmNnFoZDFybDhmc2lnb3lydjkzenp4azYzZSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/kRnmqtGgUDWlc2CQ3d/giphy.gif

There is some eyewall melding occurring right now as well (I wouldn't call it an EWRC). Hard to model or forecast how this evolves today, but imo it will likely prevent Melissa from hitting category 5 intensity today. The HAFS-A captures this for 12z (~ right now, 8AM ET):


We're looking at mostly the mid-level structure here, but here is the full radar loop of Melissa as well:


The hurricane models have backed off on maximum intensity occurring later today with the track shifts south and west over night. This doesn't mean Melissa won't achieve category 5 intensity though, as both HAFS-A and HAFS-B show the best conditions for Melissa will be when she starts to turn north on Tuesday morning and gets in an optimal position to Jamaica's terrain + outflow advection channels:

[Hurricane2022]

Melissa is simply not intensifying right now. Likely at ~110 kt/950 at this moment. I still think this will be a powerful 150+ kt MH, but not today.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Plane reporting 948 on this last pass

[Sciencerocks]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[hipshot]

Long duration radar loop of Melissa (since eye was discernible on radar) until now.

https://i.postimg.cc/qvKw9sDy/Jamaica-Radar-Melissa-10.gif

There sure seems to be some SW movement from the radar image.

[Subtrop]

TXNT28 KNES 261220
TCSNTL

A. 13L (MELISSA)

B. 26/1200Z

C. 16.4N

D. 76.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T7.0/7.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND
EMBEDDED IN W FOR A DT=7.0 MET=6.0 PT=6.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR
AVERAGE DT OF 6.8 WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING TRADITIONAL DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[tolakram]

Saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-1-50-1&checked=usint-map&colorbar=undefined

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1982427980694736936

[TallyTracker]

Melissa still looks a little smushed (that’s a technical term lol) north to south. Most high-end Cat 4s and 5s look more rounded. I wonder if there is still a little undercutting shear keeping Melissa from fully rounding off. Not enough to prevent continued intensification, but it may keep Melissa from getting a ludicrously low pressure.

EDIT: I just looked the visible loop and it looks less smushed. May be the IR messing with my eyes.