NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[kevin]

Raw T# back up to 7.5, CDO at -76C and the eye temp up to its highest value so far of 15.7C. Looks like recon is arriving at the perfect time.

[Beef Stew]

It shouldn’t be too long before we get our first pass.

[mrbagyo]

948.9 extrapolated

[Beef Stew]

I’m guessing she’s somewhere around 940 mb and 125-130 kts.

Edit: 949 extrap

[eastcoastFL]

The wind field is still extremely small with hurricane force wines reaching out just 25 miles from center. The surge and rain is still going to be the biggest issue but at least the worst of the winds will be somewhat isolated.

[otowntiger]

The wind field is still extremely small with hurricane force wines reaching out just 25 miles from center. The surge and rain is still going to be the biggest issue but at least the worst of the winds will be somewhat isolated.

I was noticing that too. This is a very compact storm- similar to Andrew

[TheDreamTraveler]

The wind field is still extremely small with hurricane force wines reaching out just 25 miles from center. The surge and rain is still going to be the biggest issue but at least the worst of the winds will be somewhat isolated.

It still has almost 2 days to expand its wind field before it makes landfall

[cheezyWXguy]

Think that persistent burst on the se side is associated with the temporary slowdown in pressure drops. Maybe a little dry air trying to get into the circulation, though I doubt it would reach the core. Just seems like the expected stair stepping that was pointed out last night.

[Nimbus]

The wind field is still extremely small with hurricane force wines reaching out just 25 miles from center. The surge and rain is still going to be the biggest issue but at least the worst of the winds will be somewhat isolated.

I measure the eye to be about 29 KM across which will provide plenty of ventilation.
No need for an immediate EWRC unless she gets greedy.Trochoidal motion pretty much due west we aren't seeing a SW track shift as some models forecast.

[Teban54]

FWIW, both the FL wind of 114 kt and the dropsonade pressure of 952 mb (extrap 949) are weaker than NHC's 5am EDT estimate (120 kt / 944 mb). Although it's possible that the strongest quadrant hasn't been sampled yet.

[ATDoel]

Interesting, recon finding a weaker storm than anticipated. Since NHC overshot the intensity, (944 vs 952 actual) do they adjust or just leave the official intensity as is?

Pretty remarkable it’s only at 952mb considering the appearance.

[Teban54]

Sunrise.

[GCANE]

The high TPW feed from the Amazon was cutoff about 8 hours.
This may account for it leveling off at this point.
However, EPAC moisture is starting to flow across Nicaragua into the Caribbean.
Likely will tap into that this late afternoon.

[Nimbus]

FWIW, both the FL wind of 114 kt and the dropsonade pressure of 952 mb (extrap 949) are weaker than NHC's 5am EDT estimate (120 kt / 944 mb). Although it's possible that the strongest quadrant hasn't been sampled yet.

Could be due to a little eyewall expansion since 5 AM its close to 29 KM across now..

[USTropics]

Why it appears Kermit's making a UTurn
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ubq.jpg

When we see this descent and stall pattern in the flight path, it typically means they are prepping an instrument (most likely a saildrone here):


You can click on every flight data point with this web-app (https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... ing=cesium), really cool for seeing flight altitude and other parameters!

[Category5Kaiju]

Another Atlantic hurricane season, another "what the hell did I just wake up to" moment.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Wow...I kind of knew I'd wake up to this, but wow

[REDHurricane]

Interesting, recon finding a weaker storm than anticipated. Since NHC overshot the intensity, (944 vs 952 actual) do they adjust or just leave the official intensity as is?

Pretty remarkable it’s only at 952mb considering the appearance.

Looks like a bit of dry air intrusion due to northerly shear as mentioned by Levi in yesterday's Tropical Tidbits video, should get mixed out relatively soon I'm guessing

[USTropics]

Interesting, recon finding a weaker storm than anticipated. Since NHC overshot the intensity, (944 vs 952 actual) do they adjust or just leave the official intensity as is?

Pretty remarkable it’s only at 952mb considering the appearance.

Looks like a bit of dry air intrusion due to northerly shear as mentioned by Levi in yesterday's Tropical Tidbits video, should get mixed out relatively soon I'm guessing

https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMWc0azF4NXB2NGxsY3FmNnFoZDFybDhmc2lnb3lydjkzenp4azYzZSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/kRnmqtGgUDWlc2CQ3d/giphy.gif

There is some eyewall melding occurring right now as well (I wouldn't call it an EWRC). Hard to model or forecast how this evolves today, but imo it will likely prevent Melissa from hitting category 5 intensity today. The HAFS-A captures this for 12z (~ right now, 8AM ET):


We're looking at mostly the mid-level structure here, but here is the full radar loop of Melissa as well:


The hurricane models have backed off on maximum intensity occurring later today with the track shifts south and west over night. This doesn't mean Melissa won't achieve category 5 intensity though, as both HAFS-A and HAFS-B show the best conditions for Melissa will be when she starts to turn north on Tuesday morning and gets in an optimal position to Jamaica's terrain + outflow advection channels:

[Hurricane2022]

Melissa is simply not intensifying right now. Likely at ~110 kt/950 at this moment. I still think this will be a powerful 150+ kt MH, but not today.