NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[WaveBreaking]

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/ohOD6Sl.gif

2025 probably has the highest average eye quality on record. Every single MH this season was an eye candy to look at.

[eastcoastFL]

The thunderstorms on the northern side of the storm continue to build in to the north on radar at a pretty impressive rate. Once she makes her turn the Jamaican coast is going to be under a relentless attack for quite some time.

[Blown Away]

Melissa is like a predator that has cornered prey and slowly circling around waiting to pounce on Jamaica…

[aspen]

The eye is starting to become a little asymmetrical again, perhaps another bit of dry air got in.

[Sciencerocks]

[USTropics]

The eye is starting to become a little asymmetrical again, perhaps another bit of dry air got in.

Again, this is mainly mid-level features we are looking at given distance, but I'm seeing a distinct moat developing on radar now (basically an inner eyewall -> moat/weak gradient -> outer eyewall forming):


This is normally a precursor to a full-on EWRC.

[WaveBreaking]

Is Jamaica's met website broken for anyone else too? I was trying to see radar but barely anything's loaded.

[USTropics]

Is Jamaica's met website broken for anyone else too? I was trying to see radar but barely anything's loaded.

It's definitely chugging (understandably). Brian McNoldy has his radar loops here:

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/


What you can do here - https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

As long as you can get to the radar loop, go all the way to the last step (even if an image doesn't appear). Right click -> copy image address -> paste that in a different tab/window. That should load the latest available image.

[WaveBreaking]

Is Jamaica's met website broken for anyone else too? I was trying to see radar but barely anything's loaded.

It's definitely chugging (understandably). Brian McNoldy has his radar loops here:

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/melissa25/Melissa_25Oct25_jamaica_480.gif

What you can do here - https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

As long as you can get to the radar loop, go all the way to the last step. Right click -> copy image address -> paste that in a different tab/window. That should load the latest available image.

Thanks! The site's definitely not used to all the traffic it's getting atm.

[BobHarlem]

Is Jamaica's met website broken for anyone else too? I was trying to see radar but barely anything's loaded.

This mirror works well and doesnt have any gaps

https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?960

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like an ERC is underway, will probably have a rather large eye after midnight

[Travorum]

If the AF plane's pressure extrap is accurate (medium if) Melissa might have deepened a bit since NOAA left, the last HDOB line reported 953.6mb still with 97kts FL wind and 105kt SFMR. Wait for the dropsonde to be sure. This was also in the weaker SE quad so winds might be up a bit.

Edit: 946.9mb in the eye, so maybe a few mb depending on how the extrap is calibrated relative to NOAA. There was a 114kt SFMR reading heading out of the eye, but only 111kt flight level winds. That's certainly not going to justify anything over 110kts.

[WaveBreaking]

Recon found 122 kt FL winds in the SE eyewall.

[cycloneye]

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 946.9mb at 16:45z

[BobHarlem]

Long duration radar loop

[cycloneye]

Dropsonde is at 949 mbs.

[Teban54]

Note that there's no double wind maxima on this eye pass, even though it doesn't strictly preclude the onset of an EWRC.

Edit: I may have spoken too soon, as the next set of data showed a small wind maximum albeit far removed from the eyewall.

[sasha_B]

Much like Rafael last year, if it weren't for recon observations, this could be treated as a much stronger storm. Subjective and objective satellite estimates (final T-numbers, not instantaneous!) have reached 7.0, and raw numbers have for the most part been hovering between 7.1 and 7.5 for upwards of 12 hours. Probably a number of factors inducing this upward bias in Dvorak intensity estimates.

[cycloneye]

Eye is closed and is smaller.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132025
A. 26/16:45:00Z
B. 16.38 deg N 076.82 deg W
C. 700 mb 2680 m
D. 949 mb
E. 360 deg 26 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C8
H. 105 kt
I. 107 deg 8 nm 16:42:30Z
J. 211 deg 122 kt
K. 110 deg 9 nm 16:42:00Z
L. 114 kt
M. 276 deg 5 nm 16:47:00Z
N. 005 deg 111 kt
O. 282 deg 6 nm 16:47:30Z
P. 9 C / 3063 m
Q. 20 C / 3044 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF307 1613A MELISSA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 122 KT 110 / 9 NM 16:42:00Z
;