NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[WaveBreaking]

The moat comes and the moat goes,
What's up with that?

https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

The most looks really narrow on short range radar, and it’s only been narrowing since it showed up. I guess Melissa is going for an eyewall meld instead of a full-on replacement.

[Hurricane2022]

The moat comes and the moat goes,
What's up with that?

https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

Eyewall meld may be occurring soon?

[eastcoastFL]

Drop 17 was just off the Jamaican coast and it's already showing 46kt winds and we're 24+ hours from landfall.

[GCANE]

The moat comes and the moat goes,
What's up with that?

https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

The most looks really narrow on short range radar, and it’s only been narrowing since it showed up. I guess Melissa is going for an eyewall meld instead of a full p-on replacement.

https://i.imgur.com/mpNKLiS.jpeg

BINGO

[BobHarlem]

Jamaica radar loops
Short range:

Long range:

[zzzh]

I see the double wind max on SE side

[USTropics]

The moat comes and the moat goes,
What's up with that?

https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

I'm thinking this is partly radar attenuation now. I haven't used this product in quite a while, but the jump between filling/nonfilling every so often leads me to believe its either attenuation or some issue with the plotting algorithm. If we get some TDR in one of these recon missions we'll have a better idea if that's what it is. This was a pass from GCOM-W1 a little over an hour ago (2:01PM ET):


This was radar imagery at 2:07PM ET:


Given recon reports on the eyewall, I'm assuming contraction for the time being + ramp up and eventual EWRC tonight.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Really can look into the eye now. Stadium effect with a warming eye. This may only be a few hours from going C5.

[GCANE]

New feeder band much closer to the eye.
Shooting straight west to Nicaragua.
Can see the eye rapidly contracting on IR.
Sone eyewall lightning,

https://weathernerds.org/satellite/?ini ... itgefs=Off

[Teban54]

Really can look into the eye now. Stadium effect with a warming eye. This may only be a few hours from going C5.

https://i.imgur.com/uLiCy6R.jpeg

It's a race between Melissa's true intensity catching up with its satellite presentation, vs. EWRC (if at all). Unlike Eta, the other (in)famous case of satellite estimates running too high, Melissa now actually has a warm, clear eye.

Note that Melissa's appearance is still improving, with the recent return of -80C cloud tops in the SE quad of the CDO. The blobs to the SE are now mostly gone or transformed to banding.

[aspen]

AF307 is headed home. When is the next flight scheduled to depart?

[zzzh]

The dropsonde profile is pretty strong. The wind in northern eyewall is so violent that the sonde actually landed on the west side, the weakest side (that's why you only see 99kt)

[Teban54]

AF307 is headed home. When is the next flight scheduled to depart?

Per cyclonicwx (which can show schedules of all upcoming recon flights in reader-friendly formats), here's the next NOAA flight:

Depart time: 26/2000Z (6 minutes from now)

Entry time: 26/2200Z

Fix time: 26/2330Z

Exit time: 27/0200Z

[Sciencerocks]

Very well defined. Probably going to strengthen into the 930's in the next 6-9 hours....

[StormWeather]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5861/HVKxO3.gif

Very well defined. Probably going to strengthen into the 930's in the next 6-9 hours....

Recon already had an extrapolated pressure of 939.9 mb, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen.

[tolakram]

saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-0-100-1&checked=usint-map&colorbar=undefined

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

AF307 is headed home. When is the next flight scheduled to depart?

Per cyclonicwx (which can show schedules of all upcoming recon flights in reader-friendly formats), here's the next NOAA flight:

Depart time: 26/2000Z (6 minutes from now)

Entry time: 26/2200Z

Fix time: 26/2330Z

Exit time: 27/0200Z

Thanks, I didn’t know cyclonicwx had that section for upcoming flights.

[Kingarabian]

Wow insane looking system. Prayers for those in its way.

[aspen]

I’d go with something around 125 kt/935 mbar for 5pm. The slightly increasing SFMR/FL winds from the last two passes may support upping the winds at least 5 kt from last advisory, and the pressure is dropping at a decent clip too. It definitely has that Cat 5 look — solid -70C donut with a stadium effect and 15C or so eye — but I doubt it’ll actually be one at 5. I’m hesitant to think it’s over 130 kt at the moment given how its satellite presentation has fooled us today.

Probably looking at a Cat 5 for tonight’s flight if I had to guess, although another level-off is absolutely possible.