NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[HurricaneBelle]

Guessing she's moving just enough to avoid upwelling

[hurricaneCW]

Guessing she's moving just enough to avoid upwelling

Yes but the depth of warm water in the region extends very far down. Even a near stall wouldn't cause a lot of upwelling

[ATDoel]

Guessing she's moving just enough to avoid upwelling

The warm water here extends to tremendous depths, it would need to sit in the same spot for a long time to cause any upwelling.

[Keldeo1997]

932.4 Extap

Edit: with 30kt winds so might be in the 920s

[MarioProtVI]

Only 129 kt FL.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Only 129 kt FL.

Strongest winds are likely in the NE quad.

[NDG]

She's going for Cat 5 tonight!

[Beef Stew]

Melissa has an absurdly perfect satellite presentation for a sub category 5 storm (at least as of now).

[CrazyC83]

If we had SFMR on that plane, we might have had a better idea. There's nothing to suggest an intensity higher than 125 kt, although the pressure looks to be about 931 mb as it likely missed the eye.

[Travorum]

There's a bit of a secondary wind maximum showing up, its more pronounced on the E side:

[ljmac75]

Eye dropsonde is 937 with 41 kt winds (~933) which would be a continuation of the 2 mb/hr deepening rate we've seen.

[Travorum]

A big burst of convection is coming up in the W eyewall:

[Hurrilurker]

Melissa has an absurdly perfect satellite presentation for a sub category 5 storm (at least as of now).

Yeah I'm honestly surprised the pressure isn't lower with that presentation.

[Travorum]

Eyewall diameter is reported as 15nm now

F. CLOSED
G. C15

[InfernoFlameCat]

Eyewall diameter is reported as 15nm now

F. CLOSED
G. C15

Looks like a successful eyewall meld

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow that is a hell of a tower that just fired off in the western eyewall. So much for an asymmetrical cdo.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Eyewall diameter is reported as 15nm now

F. CLOSED
G. C15

Looks like a successful eyewall meld

...and it happened pretty quickly too

[sasha_B]

With the new convection over the apparently weak western eyewall, and the eyewall merge apparently successful, I'm wondering if we'll get to see the satellite presentation improve even further tonight. ADT was giving instantaneous T#s of 7.5-7.7 quite frequently towards the end of Melissa's initial ERI, but I think we'd need to see much colder cloud tops in the CDO for that to happen again.

[Teban54]

Besides the continued mismatch between satellite-based estimates and true intensity, it remains bizarre how Melissa's continued pressure drops aren't translating to wind speed (as of now).

But if we assume that it just completed an eyewall meld, especially given the larger eye and the new, impressive hot tower to the west... Perhaps the wind will catch up very soon?

[Beef Stew]

Have to think that with that newest burst of convection on the western eye wall and the lack of a pronounced double wind maxima, Melissa is almost inevitably due to strengthen at some point and have her windspeeds and MSLP come closer to matching her structure.