NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Teban54]

Eye is contracting again, down to 12nm (from the 15nm on the previous pass just after the presumed eyewall meld):

F. CLOSED
G. C12

[cycloneye]

Let's see if the next overnight mission has winds up and the pressure down. Air Force plane departs at 11:15 PM EDT.

[Ptarmigan]

Is there something with Melissa's eye that makes the NOAA aircraft keep missing it, or is it just a streak of bad luck? This time, extrapolated pressure bottomed out at 934.0 mb with 39 kt FL winds. I don't even know if they did an eye drop at all; current data looks like they have skipped it.

Peak FL winds of 124 kt in both SE and NW quads remain unimpressive relative to the appearance, though not atypical of storms that just went through an EWRC (or similar).

Regardless, Melissa still found a way to look more impressive on IR. Whether that translates to intensification is anyone's guess.

https://i.imgur.com/8My44S5.gif

That is one scary hurricane.

[cheezyWXguy]

I still think the reason why Melissa is exhibiting a bursting cdo is because the eyewall cycle isn’t fully completed yet. The double wind maximum is still there, but it’s not where I think many of you are looking for it in the recon data. Remember from earlier, on Jamaica radar we saw that the outer eyewall is not much larger than the inner, and the moat between them is very narrow. Therefore when looking at the graph of FL winds, you it won’t be at the “base of the mountain” so to speak, it will be at the peak. Note the double peak you see on FL winds at 00:34z and just after 01:34z:

[Hurricane2022]

HELL HOW this is NOT a C5???

[cycloneye]

HELL HOW this is NOT a C5???
https://i.imgur.com/WbtIV0v.png

We will find out in the overnight hours when AF plane makes the passes, but one thing that will help her will be the DMAX period.

[Hurricane2022]

Oh

[cheezyWXguy]

HELL HOW this is NOT a C5???
https://i.imgur.com/WbtIV0v.png

We will find out in the overnight hours when AF plane makes the passes, but one thing that will help her will be the DMAX period.

The ring of -80c cloud tops is now almost fully complete. If this trend continues and there are still no signs of intensification by the time the next recon pass is made, my theory goes out the window. I do think we will see a stronger storm by then though.

[sasha_B]

ADT instantaneous estimate just jumped to T7.8 - that's the highest that's been seen in the Atlantic since Milton. Final ADT CI is now 7.3. Lightning is rotating around the eyewall and the cloud tops in the CDO are rapidly cooling. I concur with the sentiments being expressed by many others here (and, incidentally, mentioned in the NHC's 03z discussion) - Hurricane Melissa's satellite appearance would "suggest a higher intensity than found by the aircraft thus far."

[mrbagyo]

This latest CDO burst expansion appears to be the most symmetrical so far.

[LarryWx]

HELL HOW this is NOT a C5???
https://i.imgur.com/WbtIV0v.png

Hopefully, of course, it never gets to cat 5 as Jamaica can use any little bit of help it can get!

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1982640785553043803

 https://x.com/weatherffolkes/status/1982639783030698217

[eastcoastFL]

HELL HOW this is NOT a C5???
https://i.imgur.com/WbtIV0v.png

As someone who lives about a mile from the Atlantic coast, I could not imagine having that thing sitting right off shore. Unreal, such a beast of a storm just cruising parallel to the Jamaican coast for now as it intensifies.

[Hurricane2022]

Ohh I hate this hurricane so much!! Praying for Jamaica and Cuba!!
 https://x.com/Sekai_WX/status/1982642118754779176

[Fancy1002]

Thank pinky ring is quite menacing.

[Stormgodess]

Let's see if the next overnight mission has winds up and the pressure down. Air Force plane departs at 11:15 PM EDT.

Noob question:

Can we have total confidence in equipment and readings at all times right now? Are the instruments maintained, calibrated, replaced regularly? Does gov shut down or department restructuring affect any of these types of services?

I'm a non academic here, actually I'm a total moron, and if this sort of question is frowned upon, please remove.

But off and on the past few days I've seen mention of equipment issues. I can't pinpoint specific issues because as I said I'm a moron and it was in one ear, right out the other type of thing.

Its a question that has crossed my mind several times over the years but keep forgetting to ask.

[BobHarlem]

Tons of lightning around the eye all of a sudden

[Fancy1002]

I swear it feels like these hurricanes know when to time their bursts of intensity in between recon planes. As soon as the mission finishes, Melissa starts to explode with a perfect pink ring.

[ATDoel]

I’m surprised no one has mentioned its forward speed(or lack of) as one of the factors why the wind speed is relatively low. A hurricanes stronger side is the side with a positive movement vector, the movement of the storm adds to the windspeed. If Melissa was moving 15 MPH, it would likely be a cat 5.

[eastcoastFL]

A lot of deep red wrapping around the northern eyewall now on radar.