NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Tekken_Guy]

Can Melissa make a real play for strongest of the season? Or even sub-900?

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Melissa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAO4n3wryfE

[BobHarlem]

It appears that the southerly jog has stopped, and wobbling the other direction now.

[Sciencerocks]

Can Melissa make a real play for strongest of the season? Or even sub-900?

If the wind can catch up to appearance. I think it is possible. We'll probably wake up at 8am est to its peak! Haf-a and b suggest that this thing may become 150-155 knots tomarrow and up to landfall on Jamaica. We will see.

[Fancy1002]

The northwest section of the storm seems to continuously be the weakest or most unstable, I wonder why that is?

[Teban54]

Can Melissa make a real play for strongest of the season? Or even sub-900?

Goalposts, Atlantic and worldwide in 2025:

• Humberto: 140 kt, 924 mb
• Errol (Australian region, JTWC): 140 kt, 919 mb
• Erin: 140 kt, 915 mb
• Ragasa (JTWC): 145 kt, 910 mb
• Ragasa (JMA): 905 mb (10-min wind 110 kt)

For the strongest of the Atlantic season, Melissa just needs to get to 145 kt (beyond "minimum Cat 5") to top Erin in wind speed. Pressure lower than 915 mb will be harder, but HAFS-A and HAFS-B do show this happening -- if not now, there's an arguably better chance just before Jamaica landfall.

Sub-905 to surpass Ragasa can be a stretch, though Melissa still has a fair chance to succeed.

[Woofde]

This is a good time for a reminder that Eta 2020 had similarly high Raw T (8.3?), but recon only found 130 kt / 922 mb.

A few differences from Melissa, however:

• Eta's eye never cleared out nearly as much (which led to the hypothesis that eye temperature was a more reliable indicator, especially when compared to Goni a few days before). But Melissa's eye is now among the warmest and smoothest in this basin.
• Technically, Eta's Final T never rose to a level that would significantly exceed its actual intensity, due to constraints. But Melissa had been at Final T 7.0+ for a day now, and may even have time to catch up before the next recon arrives. It's much more direct evidence that ADT can and do run too high (as are all other satellite estimates).
• Eta's recon coverage was spotty all day due to equipment problems, leading to high expectations before the said flight finally made it into the storm. Melissa's recon has been excellent, and we already know ADT's mismatch all day.

Regardless, with Melissa already at 933 mb before the recent developments, it's very likely to exceed Eta's intensity at the minimum.

If its taking on this appearance at 930mb, how would it look at 890mb? Would we need to use a different scale? These late season systems are fascinating.

[Sciencerocks]

This is a good time for a reminder that Eta 2020 had similarly high Raw T (8.3?), but recon only found 130 kt / 922 mb.

A few differences from Melissa, however:

• Eta's eye never cleared out nearly as much (which led to the hypothesis that eye temperature was a more reliable indicator, especially when compared to Goni a few days before). But Melissa's eye is now among the warmest and smoothest in this basin.
• Technically, Eta's Final T never rose to a level that would significantly exceed its actual intensity, due to constraints. But Melissa had been at Final T 7.0+ for a day now, and may even have time to catch up before the next recon arrives. It's much more direct evidence that ADT can and do run too high (as are all other satellite estimates).
• Eta's recon coverage was spotty all day due to equipment problems, leading to high expectations before the said flight finally made it into the storm. Melissa's recon has been excellent, and we already know ADT's mismatch all day.

Regardless, with Melissa already at 933 mb before the recent developments, it's very likely to exceed Eta's intensity at the minimum.

If its taking on this appearance at 930mb, how would it look at 890mb? Would we need to use a different scale? These late season systems are fascinating.

Sometimes it takes time for the wind to catch up with the appearance. This impressive satellite structure with the lightening within the eye wall suggest that the wind will be forced closer to the surface.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1982653620777824436

[chaser1]

Working all afternoon & evening with hardly a chance to catch up with the days recon data, Discussion updates and satellite analysis has been torturous, but from what I'm seeing might be perfect timing to sit back and watch. I know a number of you guys have already expressed this but..... right here - right now, there is no way that Melissa is not a Cat 5. Where's the Air Force plane? I'll eat my underwear if I'm wrong

[BobHarlem]

Jamaica radar loop update. Back to a North of due west jog here.

[Jr0d]

This is the most impressive cat4 I've ever seen and most amazingly the recon says that is what it is. Can't argue with direct measurement but it is a puzzle of ones mind.

But I will stay up another 3-4 hours to catch at least a pass to see if current satellite trends finally catch up with surface realities.

I am definitely staying up to see what recon finds.

It does seem like low latitude storms are not as strong as the satellite suggests, where as higher lattitude storms can be stronger than the satellite estimates. Maybe that is my recency bias or maybe there is some mechanism like the Coriolis effect being stronger as latitude increases.

That said, I will be amazed if recon does not find a stronger storm if the eyewall holds together until they get a pass. I am thinking we will see the pressure down to the low 920s.

[Hurricane2022]

I think recon may find ~140 kt winds and ~925 mb mslp.
 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1982656134260678930


 https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/1982655896422424787

[Teban54]

FYI, the AF recon schedule has a fix time of 0530z (1:30 am EDT), and an exit time 3 hours later.

[IsabelaWeather]

This is the most impressive cat4 I've ever seen and most amazingly the recon says that is what it is. Can't argue with direct measurement but it is a puzzle of ones mind.

But I will stay up another 3-4 hours to catch at least a pass to see if current satellite trends finally catch up with surface realities.

I am definitely staying up to see what recon finds.

It does seem like low latitude storms are not as strong as the satellite suggests, where as higher lattitude storms can be stronger than the satellite estimates. Maybe that is my recency bias or maybe there is some mechanism like the Coriolis effect being stronger as latitude increases.

That said, I will be amazed if recon does not find a stronger storm if the eyewall holds together until they get a pass. I am thinking we will see the pressure down to the low 920s.

I believe its the height of the tropopause which is why storms like katrina look weak when compared to (generally) WPAC C5s

I also think people are discounting the fact that the atmosphere is cooling now that its well into the night. If it were borderline -80C then the cooling could push it to the new satellite coloring.

[Woofde]

This is the most impressive cat4 I've ever seen and most amazingly the recon says that is what it is. Can't argue with direct measurement but it is a puzzle of ones mind.

But I will stay up another 3-4 hours to catch at least a pass to see if current satellite trends finally catch up with surface realities.

I am definitely staying up to see what recon finds.

It does seem like low latitude storms are not as strong as the satellite suggests, where as higher lattitude storms can be stronger than the satellite estimates. Maybe that is my recency bias or maybe there is some mechanism like the Coriolis effect being stronger as latitude increases.

That said, I will be amazed if recon does not find a stronger storm if the eyewall holds together until they get a pass. I am thinking we will see the pressure down to the low 920s.

It certainly does feel that way with Eta/Iota being very strong examples in recent memory. Wilma would be the counter point I suppose though; it was at a similar lattitude as Melissa is now during it's historic run.

[ElectricStorm]

I'll throw out a guess for recon first pass: 130kts/929mb, appearance suggests stronger but that hasn't happened yet, that could always change of course

[sasha_B]

We've hit adjusted T# 8.3 and CI 7.7 on ADT, which I believe surpasses Milton's peak raw T# of 8.0 (and matches its peak CI of 7.7).

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.7 8.3 8.3

[Jonny]

https://x.com/jnelsonwjcl/status/1982661536012288045

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1982662476874326459


 https://x.com/FlynnJansenWX/status/1982658253810176143