NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 AM Advisory= Up to Category 5

[Hurricane2022]

I think recon may find ~140 kt winds and ~925 mb mslp.
 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1982656134260678930


 https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/1982655896422424787

[Teban54]

FYI, the AF recon schedule has a fix time of 0530z (1:30 am EDT), and an exit time 3 hours later.

[IsabelaWeather]

This is the most impressive cat4 I've ever seen and most amazingly the recon says that is what it is. Can't argue with direct measurement but it is a puzzle of ones mind.

But I will stay up another 3-4 hours to catch at least a pass to see if current satellite trends finally catch up with surface realities.

I am definitely staying up to see what recon finds.

It does seem like low latitude storms are not as strong as the satellite suggests, where as higher lattitude storms can be stronger than the satellite estimates. Maybe that is my recency bias or maybe there is some mechanism like the Coriolis effect being stronger as latitude increases.

That said, I will be amazed if recon does not find a stronger storm if the eyewall holds together until they get a pass. I am thinking we will see the pressure down to the low 920s.

I believe its the height of the tropopause which is why storms like katrina look weak when compared to (generally) WPAC C5s

I also think people are discounting the fact that the atmosphere is cooling now that its well into the night. If it were borderline -80C then the cooling could push it to the new satellite coloring.

[Woofde]

This is the most impressive cat4 I've ever seen and most amazingly the recon says that is what it is. Can't argue with direct measurement but it is a puzzle of ones mind.

But I will stay up another 3-4 hours to catch at least a pass to see if current satellite trends finally catch up with surface realities.

I am definitely staying up to see what recon finds.

It does seem like low latitude storms are not as strong as the satellite suggests, where as higher lattitude storms can be stronger than the satellite estimates. Maybe that is my recency bias or maybe there is some mechanism like the Coriolis effect being stronger as latitude increases.

That said, I will be amazed if recon does not find a stronger storm if the eyewall holds together until they get a pass. I am thinking we will see the pressure down to the low 920s.

It certainly does feel that way with Eta/Iota being very strong examples in recent memory. Wilma would be the counter point I suppose though; it was at a similar lattitude as Melissa is now during it's historic run.

[ElectricStorm]

I'll throw out a guess for recon first pass: 130kts/929mb, appearance suggests stronger but that hasn't happened yet, that could always change of course

[sasha_B]

We've hit adjusted T# 8.3 and CI 7.7 on ADT, which I believe surpasses Milton's peak raw T# of 8.0 (and matches its peak CI of 7.7).

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.7 8.3 8.3

[Jonny]

https://x.com/jnelsonwjcl/status/1982661536012288045

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1982662476874326459


 https://x.com/FlynnJansenWX/status/1982658253810176143

[chaser1]

This is the most impressive cat4 I've ever seen and most amazingly the recon says that is what it is. Can't argue with direct measurement but it is a puzzle of ones mind.

But I will stay up another 3-4 hours to catch at least a pass to see if current satellite trends finally catch up with surface realities.

I am definitely staying up to see what recon finds.

It does seem like low latitude storms are not as strong as the satellite suggests, where as higher lattitude storms can be stronger than the satellite estimates. Maybe that is my recency bias or maybe there is some mechanism like the Coriolis effect being stronger as latitude increases.

That said, I will be amazed if recon does not find a stronger storm if the eyewall holds together until they get a pass. I am thinking we will see the pressure down to the low 920s.

Maybe you're right and an added intensity factor might be tied to latitude?? One correlation that would seem to support that theory may simply be higher surface pressures in the sub-tropic higher latitudes than in the lower more equatorial latitudes. Only thing is, I would think that a much greater pressure gradient would result in a far larger wind field. Not necessarily stronger inner core wind speed

[PavelGaborik10]

We've hit adjusted T# 8.3 and CI 7.7 on ADT, which I believe surpasses Milton's peak raw T# of 8.0 (and matches its peak CI of 7.7).

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.7 8.3 8.3

What was peak Eta?

[sasha_B]

We've hit adjusted T# 8.3 and CI 7.7 on ADT, which I believe surpasses Milton's peak raw T# of 8.0 (and matches its peak CI of 7.7).

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.7 8.3 8.3

What was peak Eta?

8.4 raw / 7.5 adj. / 7.3 final (not at the same fix time; these were the highest values overall for each field).

[Travorum]

We've hit adjusted T# 8.3 and CI 7.7 on ADT, which I believe surpasses Milton's peak raw T# of 8.0 (and matches its peak CI of 7.7).

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.7 8.3 8.3

What was peak Eta?

I just was looking at the ADT archive wondering the same thing; Eta's Dvorak estimates peaked at a Raw T# of 8.4 and a CI# of 7.3 (916.5mb/149kts), these were not at the same time.

[Teban54]

In addition to the obvious cooling, the CDO has also greatly expanded:

[WaveBreaking]

There's another moat on Jamaica's radar.

https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?960

[LarryWx]

There are 3 Atlantic basin hurricanes on record on this date or later that were cat 5 and they had these lowest pressures/highest sustained winds:

-Mitch of 1998: Oct 26-28; 905 mb/180 mph; but landfall was way down at 80 mph on Honduras. The extreme rainfall though was what made it so deadly.

-Hattie of 1961: Oct 31; 914 mb/165 mph; it weakened slightly at landfall in Belize to 915 mb/150 mph (cat 4)

-Cuba hurricane of 1932: Nov 5-8; 915 mb/175 mph; but it weakened some before hitting land as it was 150/cat 4 on landfall

The latest on record cat 5 landfall was on Cuba on Oct 19 (in 1924) near its peak intensity of 165 mph. So, IF this were to hit Jamaica as a cat 5, it would become the latest on record to landfall as a cat 5 by 9 days.

[chaser1]

FYI, the AF recon schedule has a fix time of 0530z (1:30 am EDT), and an exit time 3 hours later.

Perfect, just enough time to hit the bathroom then grab a glass of wine

[wx98]

I’m surprised no one has mentioned its forward speed(or lack of) as one of the factors why the wind speed is relatively low. A hurricanes stronger side is the side with a positive movement vector, the movement of the storm adds to the windspeed. If Melissa was moving 15 MPH, it would likely be a cat 5.

I had the same thought myself…

[chaser1]

A few things that struck me while revewing a couple different satellite enhancements. One that Teban already mentioned is that the central core has definately expanded some. The other is that it seems apparent that the eye diameter has contracted a bit more. The 3rd is more subtle but also less definitive. Looking at earlier today's satellite loops, Melissa's eye appeared to present the classic "stadium effect". During the last couple of hours not only has the eye appeared to slightly contract further, but the depth of the coldest tops seemed less staggered; That is, appearing uniformly less distant outside & immediatly around the eye, and seemingly "more vertical" (less of a stadium effect). Not sure if I am explaining it well enough to make sense.

[Travorum]

Does Melissa have the highest CI# in Atlantic ADT history? Melissa's CI# just hit 7.8 with the most recent analysis, and the closest I could find in the Atlantic archives going back to ADT's implementation was Milton at a CI# of 7.7.

[Teban54]

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