NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Teban54]

[Travorum]

Still tons of lightning in the core:

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/kxZTFDZ.gif

Hmm, a reflection of the mountainous down-slope dryer air being drawn into the northern quad?

[Hurricane2022]

I'm still awake because of this reconnaissance mission. Tomorrow is going to be a terribly bad day at work. But at least I'll get to see them find Melissa very stable and cheerful at her 125 kt/930 mb.

[chaser1]

Has got to be sub 920. Have we determined if Air Force is still enroute?

[sasha_B]

ADT CI 8.0 over the Atlantic. Remember when people were wondering if TS Melissa would dissipate before making Cat 1?

[Travorum]

I'm still awake because of this reconnaissance mission. Tomorrow is going to be a terribly bad day at work. But at least I'll get to see them find Melissa very stable and cheerful at her 125 kt/930 mb.

This is the best looking mid-range Category 4 that ADT is convinced is a record setting 170kts that I've ever seen.

BTW ADT just hit a CI# of 8.0, might not see that again in the atlantic in my lifetime.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 OCT 2025 Time : 051021 UTC
Lat : 16:16:48 N Lon : 77:35:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 888.9mb/170.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.0 8.2 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +18.8C Cloud Region Temp : -79.0C

[bob rulz]

Surely this has strengthened since the last pass, I'd be shocked if it was still a "mid-range cat 4".

[cheezyWXguy]

Did recon make another turn again or is TT glitching out with the new data set? The plane was heading nw into the storm but the plane icon is facing due east at the end.

[Hurricane2022]

Welp that was a hard hit on the plane it seems


I sincerely hope everything is okay with the crew

[Hurricane2022]

From an earlier flight
 https://x.com/ATLAreaWx/status/1982681489545515059

[Teban54]

I'm still awake because of this reconnaissance mission. Tomorrow is going to be a terribly bad day at work. But at least I'll get to see them find Melissa very stable and cheerful at her 125 kt/930 mb.

This is the best looking mid-range Category 4 that ADT is convinced is a record setting 170kts that I've ever seen.

BTW ADT just hit a CI# of 8.0, might not see that again in the atlantic in my lifetime.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 OCT 2025 Time : 051021 UTC
Lat : 16:16:48 N Lon : 77:35:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 888.9mb/170.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.0 8.2 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +18.8C Cloud Region Temp : -79.0C

If, as a hypothetical, Melissa is at 125 kts right now... The difference of 45 kt would be as if ADT says a Cat 3 when it's in fact a high-end TS.

[Hurricane2022]

The plane still on the way! 65 kt FL so far!

[Keldeo1997]

Here we go....

[chaser1]

Does the graph imply they were smacked by a vicious downturn? I think I previously read that the flight came out of its initial leg so to come in at a lower altitude, but I dont know if that is factual.

[Hurricane2022]

Officially T8.0 for Melissa. What an incredible night, folks.
 https://x.com/DustinLwX/status/1982684729272086782

[WaveBreaking]

I’m guessing 135kt/920s. Even though Melissa is one of the best looking hurricanes I’ve ever seen, its intensity has been lagging behind its appearance all day. Maybe I’ll be wrong tho.

[Hurricane2022]

The next update should show the recon already in the eye.

[chaser1]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432243866714505267/MELISSA_AF301_1813A_full.png?ex=6900588b&is=68ff070b&hm=ea7976e085010971e5a36b87a6dc0b1bc277f47332064c697134300389174014&

Here we go....

Hopefully the pilot saved 1/2 of his Calzone for later

[Travorum]

148kt SFMR!