NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

923 Extap

[WaveBreaking]

923.2mbar extrap/140kt FL winds

[Teban54]

FL 140 kt, SFMR 148 kt, extrap pressure 923.2 mb.

Edit: This is the SE quad, for clarification. NW quad has higher winds as seen below.

[Hurricane2022]

923 Extap

Guess now I can "rest in peace"

[Stormgodess]

I wonder how much data refreshing a half dozen pages non-stop uses?

[chaser1]

I'll go with 917.5 mb with 160 mph (winds still slightly catching up to the pressure fall)

[Hurricane2022]

NHC still hasn't issued the intermediate advisory
-----
Edit: nvm

Min pressure: 926 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[ElectricStorm]

First salmon barbs I've seen so far, SE quad is impressive. Let's see if NW quad can surpass it

[Travorum]

Looks like pressure's down to 923.2mb extrap, FL winds 140kts and SFMR 148kts. This is in the SE, there's potentially stronger winds on the way out in the north. The HDOB got cut off but the last entry had 136kt SFMR with 931mb extrap, there's probably stronger winds right at the start of the next HDOB.

Again with the caveat of "if you trust SFMR in high end hurricanes" an even blend is borderline 135/140kts

[PavelGaborik10]

I’m guessing 135kt/920s. Even though Melissa is one of the best looking hurricanes I’ve ever seen, its intensity has been lagging behind its appearance all day. Maybe I’ll be wrong tho.

I'll go with the same winds(135 KTS) but pressure 926.

[chaser1]

I wonder how much data refreshing a half dozen pages non-stop uses?

You and I both LOL, yet somehow we both missed the updated post (above) Well, I still think we'll see 9'teens before this mission ends

[Hurricane2022]

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Additional intensification is forecast today, followed by
fluctuations in intensity before Melissa reaches Jamaica. Melissa
is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall
in Jamaica and southeastern Cuba.

Looks like they issued the advisory before recon reached the eye.
If the plane finds 152+ FL winds in the NW wall, we should see an update coming in 30 min.

[chaser1]

Yeah....... if I'm NHC, I might have just sat back on that brief update pending the NW & NE quadrant sampling - just say'in.

[Travorum]

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Additional intensification is forecast today, followed by
fluctuations in intensity before Melissa reaches Jamaica. Melissa
is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall
in Jamaica and southeastern Cuba.

Looks like they issued the advisory before recon reached the eye.
If the plane finds 152+ FL winds in the NW pass, we should see an update coming in 30 min.

Somehow this always ends up happening with recon—they make their first pass minutes after the NHC advisory time. It happens so often you'd think they scheduled it (maybe that's why recon loitered for 20 minutes )

[ElectricStorm]

144 FL/159 SFMR...

[Teban54]

NW quad: 144 kt FL, 159 kt SFMR

[Hurricane2022]

ADT still climbing
 https://x.com/matteyowwwwww/status/1982688813521764598

[Travorum]

144 FL/159 SFMR...

yeah that'll do it, I guess those winds finally mixed down

[WaveBreaking]

Recon found 144kt FL winds in the NW quad

[Keldeo1997]

No Double wind max