NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 135 kt for the intensity. Very little weight on the SFMR, but the FL winds and pressure drop support a higher intensity.

[MarioProtVI]

With such a huge discrepancy in FL and SFMR winds, as well as continued skepticism of SFMR at higher ends... Will the 159 kt SFMR be thrown out completely?

I think maybe not completely disregarded but maybe weighted less; between the CI# 8.1 ADT, the T7.5 subjective fix that will probably come through at 06z, the FL winds, and the SFMR measurement, there's probably enough support for at least 140kts.

NHC has thrown out SFMRs beginning last year in high end hurricanes because of its faulty issues so they’re only going by the FL->surface reduction method. It doesn’t matter if satellite estimates think it’s a 5, recon weighs much more over that, and recon supports at most 135 kt. Basically this is just Eta 2.0.

[ElectricStorm]

I also agree with 135kts being a good estimate, and with no double wind max this is well on its way to 140kts+ very soon unless something drastically changes.

[mrbagyo]

With such a huge discrepancy in FL and SFMR winds, as well as continued skepticism of SFMR at higher ends... Will the 159 kt SFMR be thrown out completely?

I think maybe not completely disregarded but maybe weighted less; between the CI# 8.1 ADT, the T7.5 subjective fix that will probably come through at 06z, the FL winds, and the SFMR measurement, there's probably enough support for at least 140kts.

NHC has thrown out SFMRs beginning last year in high end hurricanes because of its faulty issues so they’re only going by the FL->surface reduction method. It doesn’t matter if satellite estimates think it’s a 5, recon weighs much more over that, and recon supports at most 135 kt. Basically this is just Eta 2.0.

They badly need to recalibrate the algorithm for the ADT.

[CrazyC83]

I also agree with 135kts being a good estimate, and with no double wind max this is well on its way to 140kts+ very soon unless something drastically changes.

Pressure is likely around 922 mb from what I could see.

[Fancy1002]

I'd go with 135 kt for the intensity. Very little weight on the SFMR, but the FL winds and pressure drop support a higher intensity.

So would it be correct to assume that it will be category five by morning, as long as there aren’t any additional surprises like an Eyewall replacement cycle.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 135 kt for the intensity. Very little weight on the SFMR, but the FL winds and pressure drop support a higher intensity.

So would it be correct to assume that it will be category five by morning, as long as there aren’t any additional surprises like an Eyewall replacement cycle.

Most likely. The pressure seems to be falling again at a good rate.

[WaveBreaking]

Eye’s been having some noticeable trochoidal oscillation recently

[cheezyWXguy]

I also agree with 135kts being a good estimate, and with no double wind max this is well on its way to 140kts+ very soon unless something drastically changes.

Since the northern quadrant hasn’t been sampled yet, there’s a chance it already does have 140kt winds.

[mrbagyo]

-90 cloudtops are exploding on the eastern sector of the CDO.
could this be a precursor to EWRC?

[CrazyC83]

-90 cloudtops are exploding on the eastern sector of the CDO.
could this be a precursor to EWRC?

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3Qu3.gif

Doubtful. It appeared to go through a pseudo-EWRC today and I don't think it has anything concentric?

[CrazyC83]

In general, the SFMR should have little weight around 130 kt and up, and thrown out completely around 150 kt and up. I'd want to see a flight-level wind of at least 150 kt before going cat 5, or a dropsonde suggesting such.

[WaveBreaking]

Latest dropsonde shows RH is still high in the eye, so if there is any EWRC trying to start, then it probably won’t happen anytime soon.

[Teban54]

The last frame has the eye entirely filled with thunderstorms...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The last frame has the eye entirely filled with thunderstorms...

https://i.imgur.com/tvw7XOs.gif

Those are lightning flashes. (It means it's really strengthening basically)

[chaser1]

The last frame has the eye entirely filled with thunderstorms...

https://i.imgur.com/tvw7XOs.gif

Those are lightning flashes. (It means it's really strengthening basically)

That or, a dozen small ships and all of the drunk-off-their-ass passengers caught in the eye and throwing a Rave.

[CrazyC83]

The last frame has the eye entirely filled with thunderstorms...

https://i.imgur.com/tvw7XOs.gif

Those are lightning flashes. (It means it's really strengthening basically)

That or, a dozen small ships and all of the drunk-off-their-ass passengers caught in the eye and throwing a Rave.

Like the SS Phemius in the 1932 hurricane? (The one that measured 915 mb outside the eye in brutal winds and survived to tell about it)

[chaser1]

Those are lightning flashes. (It means it's really strengthening basically)

That or, a dozen small ships and all of the drunk-off-their-ass passengers caught in the eye and throwing a Rave.

Like the SS Phemius in the 1932 hurricane? (The one that measured 915 mb outside the eye in brutal winds and survived to tell about it)

Are you serious? I never heard of that event.

[chaser1]

There simply are NO amount of exotic mushrooms that could shake that level of PTSD which those folks developed following an experience like that

[abajan]

6z Best Track:

AL, 13, 2025102706, , BEST, 0, 163N, 777W, 130, 924, HU...