NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

Latest dropsonde shows RH is still high in the eye, so if there is any EWRC trying to start, then it probably won’t happen anytime soon.

[Teban54]

The last frame has the eye entirely filled with thunderstorms...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The last frame has the eye entirely filled with thunderstorms...

https://i.imgur.com/tvw7XOs.gif

Those are lightning flashes. (It means it's really strengthening basically)

[chaser1]

The last frame has the eye entirely filled with thunderstorms...

https://i.imgur.com/tvw7XOs.gif

Those are lightning flashes. (It means it's really strengthening basically)

That or, a dozen small ships and all of the drunk-off-their-ass passengers caught in the eye and throwing a Rave.

[CrazyC83]

The last frame has the eye entirely filled with thunderstorms...

https://i.imgur.com/tvw7XOs.gif

Those are lightning flashes. (It means it's really strengthening basically)

That or, a dozen small ships and all of the drunk-off-their-ass passengers caught in the eye and throwing a Rave.

Like the SS Phemius in the 1932 hurricane? (The one that measured 915 mb outside the eye in brutal winds and survived to tell about it)

[chaser1]

Those are lightning flashes. (It means it's really strengthening basically)

That or, a dozen small ships and all of the drunk-off-their-ass passengers caught in the eye and throwing a Rave.

Like the SS Phemius in the 1932 hurricane? (The one that measured 915 mb outside the eye in brutal winds and survived to tell about it)

Are you serious? I never heard of that event.

[chaser1]

There simply are NO amount of exotic mushrooms that could shake that level of PTSD which those folks developed following an experience like that

[abajan]

6z Best Track:

AL, 13, 2025102706, , BEST, 0, 163N, 777W, 130, 924, HU...

[Travorum]

918.9mb extrap, still deepening and at an increased rate it seems

[CrazyC83]

In addition to the 919 mb pressure, those winds are now on the back side. Need to see the NE quad next pass.

[mrbagyo]

why it appears Teal75 is headed back to the NW?

[chaser1]

I dont think I can stay awake for the next quadrant. See you guys in about 10 millibars

[mrbagyo]

slight deviation on flight path but still headed NE, maybe they want to sample the strongest echo

[Travorum]

152kt FL winds

[CrazyC83]

152kt FL winds

That supports 140 kt for the intensity, especially with the 919 mb pressure (if upheld).

We might see a TCU soon so the NHC can mention it.

[abajan]

I dont think I can stay awake for the next quadrant. See you guys in about 10 millibars

Hilarious, man. We could certainly do with some levity to ease the anxiety in this dire situation facing our friends in Jamaica.

[Teban54]

Center drop 921 mb with 9 kt winds, supports 920 mb (or maybe 919? idk).

[Travorum]

slight deviation on flight path but still headed NE, maybe they want to sample the strongest echo

It looks like this was the case, they turned NW right into the highest FL winds then immediately turned back NE to leave the eyewall.

[Subtrop]

AL, 13, 2025102706, , BEST, 0, 163N, 777W, 135, 924, HU,

[ElectricStorm]

140kts/920mb looks like a good estimate, we'll see if NHC agrees. Also note the eye is less saturated than previous drops and perhaps a faint double wind max starting to show up this pass.