NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Travorum]

918.9mb extrap, still deepening and at an increased rate it seems

[CrazyC83]

In addition to the 919 mb pressure, those winds are now on the back side. Need to see the NE quad next pass.

[mrbagyo]

why it appears Teal75 is headed back to the NW?

[chaser1]

I dont think I can stay awake for the next quadrant. See you guys in about 10 millibars

[mrbagyo]

slight deviation on flight path but still headed NE, maybe they want to sample the strongest echo

[Travorum]

152kt FL winds

[CrazyC83]

152kt FL winds

That supports 140 kt for the intensity, especially with the 919 mb pressure (if upheld).

We might see a TCU soon so the NHC can mention it.

[abajan]

I dont think I can stay awake for the next quadrant. See you guys in about 10 millibars

Hilarious, man. We could certainly do with some levity to ease the anxiety in this dire situation facing our friends in Jamaica.

[Teban54]

Center drop 921 mb with 9 kt winds, supports 920 mb (or maybe 919? idk).

[Travorum]

slight deviation on flight path but still headed NE, maybe they want to sample the strongest echo

It looks like this was the case, they turned NW right into the highest FL winds then immediately turned back NE to leave the eyewall.

[Subtrop]

AL, 13, 2025102706, , BEST, 0, 163N, 777W, 135, 924, HU,

[ElectricStorm]

140kts/920mb looks like a good estimate, we'll see if NHC agrees. Also note the eye is less saturated than previous drops and perhaps a faint double wind max starting to show up this pass.

[ElectricStorm]

NE eyewall drop (although seems to be more north and west), keep in mind this is instantaneous so probably a gust but definitely getting these winds mixed down to the surface.

[Jr0d]

We will see what the NHC goes with for pressure, I think it could be sub 920mb now but doubtful they will go that low, without another pass.

Flight level winds of 152kt do support Melissa being upgraded to a Cat 5 however.

Hopefully we get one more eye pass by recon this morning.

[mrbagyo]

Looks like TEAL75 is gearing for another pass. confirmatory pass?

[Jr0d]

Looks like TEAL75 is gearing for another pass. confirmatory pass?

Yes. This time from north to south.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

A disclaimer abut SFMR estimated wind data will now appear in my recon system's archive page for an HDOB in some cases.

So far I went with:

"Disclaimer about estimated surface wind data from the SFMR instrument:
SFMR data is estimated based on the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer instrument. Surface winds are estimated from that instrument. At higher values, any available SFMR surface wind data may be less reliable compared to estimates in storms with lesser winds. Please use SFMR readings with caution if they do not correlate well to the flight level wind. This note is automatically made more prominent in our recon system in some cases. It does not necessarily indicate that the data is inaccurate, but instead that the data should be interpreted with more caution."

For now I have it set to appear when the 30 second flight level wind is 115 knots or greater and the SFMR estimated surface wind is greater than the 30 second flight level wind. I might add it in other places eventually, but for now it's only on an HDOB page.

[ouragans]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1982721926620729542

[Hurrilurker]

Jamaica is going to get slammed but in a sense they're lucky. If this storm was a little more north and sitting over the island for 2-3 days making the slow turn it would be horrendous.

[weeniepatrol]

154 kt FL. Cat 5

917.7 xtrap