NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Nimbus]

Recon is really getting bounced around this run it seems.

I think they must be sampling or timing their entry through the core, its sub 920 now.
The trough looks pathetic and the NHC is calling for landfall in Jamaica as a category 5 hurricane.
Bermuda forecast with 90 mph winds won't be as bad they are built for that.

[GCANE]

Lightning has increased dramatically since last evening in both the eye and feeder band.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My guess is Melissa is around 909mb. We'll see what recon finds here in a minute.

[Beef Stew]

Should be getting the first center pass (NW-SE) from NOAA within the next 30 minutes or so. Any guesses on what they’ll find? My guess is Melissa is probably around 913 mb at this point and quickly approaching the sub 910’s. Winds 140-145 kts.

[Beef Stew]

Center pass data should be coming any minute now

[Beef Stew]

912.4 extrap

[Hypercane_Kyle]

912mb extrapolated, flight level winds 155 knots.

[Kazmit]

My guess of 912 mb was right (trust me, that was my guess even though I didn’t post it).

[Kazmit]

Probably at least 145kts now based on that pass.

[Beef Stew]

Uniform 150+ kt FL winds in all quadrants right now it seems. The next NE to SW pass should find strong enough winds to support 145 if not 150 kts.

[michelinj]

That dropsonde in the NW eyewall is pretty incredible. 159kt at the surface, with 167kt just above. Could well just be a gust that it got but even so.

[mrbagyo]

So this thing is now deeper than Irma huh

[Kazmit]

So this thing is now deeper than Irma huh

It’s incredibly deep for how relatively small of a storm it is. I think the winds still have some catching up to do.

[mrbagyo]

The C130 from Curacao is now entering the eye

[Beef Stew]

Should have a fix from the AF plane any minute now.

[kevin]

Holy sh*t, NOAA2 measured an eye temperature of +28.4C. That has to be the warmest eye I've ever seen during a recon pass and relatively close to the world-record: +34.0C in typhoon Judy, 1979.

[Blown Away]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 16.4N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.3N 78.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.5N 77.3W 115 KT 130 MPH...NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA
48H 29/0600Z 20.1N 76.0W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER SE CUBA
60H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR SE BAHAMAS
72H 30/0600Z 24.7N 72.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 32.3N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 01/0600Z 41.4N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Melissa is not predicted to go farther W than 78.1, she still looks solid WNW. I believe if she tracks farther W now that will result in a farther W landfall on Jamaica.

[kevin]

AF plane, 912.9 mb extrapolated with 10 kt winds nearby. Also measured 158 kt FL winds is good enough imo to support an upgrade to 145 kt.

[mrbagyo]

912.9 Extrap
158 FL
167 SFMR

[dukeblue219]

I see 167kt SFMR on the Air Force plane, but did I read earlier that there was an issue with the SFMR calibration?