NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[GCANE]

VDM from Kermit

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 11:21:48Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.35N 77.95W
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 916mb (27.05 inHg)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 37° at 155kts (From the NE at 178.4mph)
Flight Level = 750mb nominal

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

912.9 Extrap
158 FL
167 SFMR

Wild SFMR - was it flagged?

[kevin]

Dropsonde supports 912 - 913 mb. Slightly lower RH at altitude, but the surface RH is still high at 93%.

[BobHarlem]

https://i.postimg.cc/HnWrBLbh/goes19-ir ... 270905.gif

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 16.4N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.3N 78.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.5N 77.3W 115 KT 130 MPH...NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA
48H 29/0600Z 20.1N 76.0W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER SE CUBA
60H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR SE BAHAMAS
72H 30/0600Z 24.7N 72.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 32.3N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 01/0600Z 41.4N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Melissa is not predicted to go farther W than 78.1, she still looks solid WNW. I believe if she tracks farther W now that will result in a farther W landfall on Jamaica.

Interpolated curve between the points (12 hours is a huge gap this close) it could still get to about 78.2 it's still about right, I think it winds up near Treasure beach.

[Beef Stew]

I’m guessing the NHC is probably waiting for data from the NE quadrant before making the bump to 145kts.

[GCANE]

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=TglK1XSbSig

[kevin]

We're now entering all-time territory. Here are all the sub-920 hurricanes in the Atlantic. Melissa is now at #15 on the all-time Atlantic list in terms of pressure.

Edit: updated to include category 4 hurricanes.

880s
882 - Wilma (2005)
888 - Gilbert (1988)

890s
892 - Labor Day (1935)
895 - Rita (2005)
895 - Milton (2024)
899 - Allen (1980)

900s
900 - Camille (1969)
902 - Katrina (2005)
905 - Mitch (1998)
905 - Dean (2007)
908 - Maria (2017)

910s
910 - Cuba (1924)
910 - Ivan (2004)
910 - Dorian (2019)
913 - Melissa (2025)
914 - Janet (1955)
914 - Hattie (1961)
914 - Irma (2017)
915 - Cuba (1932)
915 - Isabel (2003)
915 - Erin (2025)
916 - Opal (1995)
917 - Iota (2020)
918 - Great Atlantic (1944)
918 - Hugo (1989)
919 - Esther (1961)
919 - Gloria (1985)
919 - Michael (2018)

[tolakram]

saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-0-100-1&checked=usint-map&colorbar=undefined

[kevin]

Dropsonde for posterity, 159 kt at the surface.

[Beef Stew]

We're now entering all-time territory. Here are all the sub-920 hurricanes in the Atlantic. Melissa is now at #15 on the all-time Atlantic list in terms of pressure.

880s
882 - Wilma (2005)
888 - Gilbert (1988)

890s
892 - Labor Day (1935)
895 - Rita (2005)
895 - Milton (2024)
899 - Allen (1980)

900s
900 - Camille (1969)
902 - Katrina (2005)
905 - Mitch (1998)
905 - Dean (2007)
908 - Maria (2017)

910s
910 - Cuba (1924)
910 - Ivan (2004)
910 - Dorian (2019)
913 - Melissa (2025)
914 - Janet (1955)
914 - Hattie (1961)
914 - Irma (2017)
915 - Cuba (1932)
915 - Isabel (2003)
915 - Erin (2025)
918 - Great Atlantic (1944)
918 - Hugo (1989)
919 - Esther (1961)
919 - Michael (2018)

Great post- but, for what it’s worth, while they weren’t category 5’s, Gloria, Opal, and Iota (still a category 5 in my heart) were all sub-920 as well.

[kevin]

We're now entering all-time territory. Here are all the sub-920 hurricanes in the Atlantic. Melissa is now at #15 on the all-time Atlantic list in terms of pressure.

880s
882 - Wilma (2005)
888 - Gilbert (1988)

890s
892 - Labor Day (1935)
895 - Rita (2005)
895 - Milton (2024)
899 - Allen (1980)

900s
900 - Camille (1969)
902 - Katrina (2005)
905 - Mitch (1998)
905 - Dean (2007)
908 - Maria (2017)

910s
910 - Cuba (1924)
910 - Ivan (2004)
910 - Dorian (2019)
913 - Melissa (2025)
914 - Janet (1955)
914 - Hattie (1961)
914 - Irma (2017)
915 - Cuba (1932)
915 - Isabel (2003)
915 - Erin (2025)
918 - Great Atlantic (1944)
918 - Hugo (1989)
919 - Esther (1961)
919 - Michael (2018)

Great post- but, for what it’s worth, while they weren’t category 5’s, Gloria, Opal, and Iota (still a category 5 in my heart) were all sub-920 as well.

I thought I also checked the cat 4 hurricanes, but apparently I missed a few. Thanks, I'll update the list now.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Were both planes passing through the eye at the same time?

[Beef Stew]

Were both planes passing through the eye at the same time?

AF passed through about ~20 minutes after NOAA

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone know where Josh is riding out the storm? Any other chasers decide to go to Jamaica?

[Beef Stew]

Kermit heading in to sample the NE quadrant now

[dizzyfish]

Does anyone know where Josh is riding out the storm? Any other chasers decide to go to Jamaica?

His base is in Mandeville but he is talking about staying at Treasure Beach as the storm comes in.

[ATDoel]

912.9 Extrap
158 FL
167 SFMR

So let me get this straight, 167 knot SFMR but they can't use it because of calibration reasons. Dropsonde finds 159 knot wind at the surface but they can't use it because it might be a gust. Why use equipment when you can't even use the data it provides? Are they only looking at flight level winds and using a standard wind reduction? That seems a bit absurd considering it's 2025.... haven't we been using this method since the 60s?

[Kazmit]

NE pass coming up… let’s see if she’s still strengthening.

[jlauderdal]

Does anyone know where Josh is riding out the storm? Any other chasers decide to go to Jamaica?

Treasure Beach, St. Elizabeth...SW coast. Lets see what happens after the turn, these big systems like to pull to the right, will see. Good thing about Jamaica is that you can get 30 ft above sea level quickly, if needed.

[Sunnydays]

There are some great radio stations that stream live from Jamaica that will stream right up until they lose signal. I remember many of us listening during past hurricanes that passed over the island. This is my fav...but there are a few others.
https://edge105.com/listen-edge-105fm-live/