NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

Were both planes passing through the eye at the same time?

AF passed through about ~20 minutes after NOAA

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone know where Josh is riding out the storm? Any other chasers decide to go to Jamaica?

[Beef Stew]

Kermit heading in to sample the NE quadrant now

[dizzyfish]

Does anyone know where Josh is riding out the storm? Any other chasers decide to go to Jamaica?

His base is in Mandeville but he is talking about staying at Treasure Beach as the storm comes in.

[ATDoel]

912.9 Extrap
158 FL
167 SFMR

So let me get this straight, 167 knot SFMR but they can't use it because of calibration reasons. Dropsonde finds 159 knot wind at the surface but they can't use it because it might be a gust. Why use equipment when you can't even use the data it provides? Are they only looking at flight level winds and using a standard wind reduction? That seems a bit absurd considering it's 2025.... haven't we been using this method since the 60s?

[Kazmit]

NE pass coming up… let’s see if she’s still strengthening.

[jlauderdal]

Does anyone know where Josh is riding out the storm? Any other chasers decide to go to Jamaica?

Treasure Beach, St. Elizabeth...SW coast. Lets see what happens after the turn, these big systems like to pull to the right, will see. Good thing about Jamaica is that you can get 30 ft above sea level quickly, if needed.

[Sunnydays]

There are some great radio stations that stream live from Jamaica that will stream right up until they lose signal. I remember many of us listening during past hurricanes that passed over the island. This is my fav...but there are a few others.
https://edge105.com/listen-edge-105fm-live/

[jlauderdal]

There are some great radio stations that stream live from Jamaica that will stream right up until they lose signal. I remember many of us listening during past hurricanes that passed over the island. This is my fav...but there are a few others.
https://edge105.com/listen-edge-105fm-live/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2vqjPCLt2M

[Teban54]

Updating this list to include Melissa:

Edit: This was written before the most recent Best Track update to 75 kts.
Edit 2 (10/27/2025): Added Melissa to the list now that it's a Cat 5.

Now that Melissa is officially a hurricane at 2pm ET, I got curious and looked at rates of intensification for Cat 5s, starting from the last time step they remained at 70 kts or lower. (For example, Erin 2025 spent 12 hours at 65 kt, which wasn't counted.)

I'm using "70 kt or lower" as the threshold for "minimum Cat 1", both because some storms jump from TS to this intensity (skipping 65 kt), and because low-end and high-end Cat 1s often display different organizational progress for further intensification.

TL;DR: A top-tier intensification rate (like Wilma, Milton and Erin) can bring Melissa to Cat 5 in the next 18-24 hours. But it's still very plausible to get a Cat 5, even without pinhole eyes, with a "normal" rate of 1.5-2 days. With almost 3 days before landfall, there's more than enough time.

Storms that intensified from 70- kt (low Cat 1) to 140+ kt (Cat 5) within 48 hours

• Wilma 2005: 18 hours, 65 -> 150 kt (12z 10/18/05 to 06z 10/19/05)
• Erin 2025: 18 hours 20 minutes, 65 -> 140 kt (21z 8/15/25 to 15:20z 8/16/25)
• Felix 2007: 24 hours, 65 -> 150 kt (00z 9/2/07 to 00z 9/3/07)
• Milton 2024: 24 hours, 70 -> 150 kt (18z 10/6/24 to 18z 10/7/24)
• Matthew 2016: 24 hours, 70 -> 145 kt (00z 9/30/16 to 00z 10/1/16) - debated
• Andrew 1992: 30 hours, 65 -> 145 kt (06z 8/22/92 to 12z 8/23/92)
• Maria 2017: 30 hours, 65 -> 145 kt (18z 9/17/17 to 00z 9/19/17)
• Edith 1971: 30 hours, 65 -> 140 kt (12z 9/8/71 to 18z 9/9/71)
• Lee 2023: 30 hours, 70 -> 145 kt (00z 9/7/23 to 06z 9/8/23)
• Rita 2005: 30 hours, 70 -> 145 kt (12z 9/20/05 to 18z 9/21/05)
• "Labor Day" 1935: 36 hours, 65 -> 160 kt (12z 9/1/35 to 00z 9/3/35) - data issue, likely took much less time in reality
• Camille 1969: 36 hours, 65 -> 150 kt (06z 8/15/69 to 18z 8/16/69) - with intermediate weakening
• Humberto 2025: 36 hours, 65 -> 140 kt (09z 9/26/25 to 21z 9/27/25)
• Melissa 2025: 39 hours, 65 -> 140 kt (18z 10/25/25 to 09z 10/27/25)
• Janet 1955: 41 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (00z 9/26/55 to 17z 9/27/55)
• "Tampico" 1933: 42 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (06z 9/19/33 to 00z 9/21/33)
• Allen 1980: 42 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (06z 8/3/80 to 00z 8/5/80)
• Hugo 1989: 42 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (00z 9/14/89 to 18z 9/15/89)
• Dean 2007: 48 hours, 70 -> 145 kt (06z 8/16/07 to 06z 8/18/07)
• Ian 2022: 48 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (12z 9/26/22 to 12z 9/28/22) - with intermediate weakening
• Beryl 2024: 48 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (00z 6/30/24 to 00z 7/2/24) - with intermediate weakening
• Anita 1977: 48 hours, 70 -> 140 kt (00z 8/31/77 to 00z 9/2/77)

Uses advisory times for 2025, and TCR for others (ignoring intermediate times unless in the TCR).

[Beef Stew]

Should be getting our center fix from NOAA any minute now. AF is headed back in as well from the SW.

[mrbagyo]

909.9 Extrap
154 - FL

[Travorum]

909.9mb extrap for a deepening of 2.5mb at a rate of 2mb/hr since last pass (at least by extrap).

[mrbagyo]

Can it get lower than Ragasa's official 905 hpa? (though it has a unofficial 900.3hPa buoy reading and a still undisclosed reading from Calayan synop).

[Beef Stew]

Interestingly enough, the FL winds in the NE are more or less the same as the NW. I guess she is just moving at a crawl, though.

[Beef Stew]

AF is about to make its SW to NE pass. Let’s see if we get any differences in the data.

[Teban54]

AF is about to make its SW to NE pass. Let’s see if we get any differences in the data.

Two 153 kt FL readings in the SW quad. Extrap is 910.9 mb so far.

[GCANE]

Hot tower shooting on the eastern periphery.
Hopefully a sign of a developing EWRC.
Watching recon's eye drops if the core is drying out.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hot tower shooting on the eastern periphery.
Hopefully a sign of a developing EWRC.
Watching recon's eye drops if the core is drying out.

Idk, it has plenty of time to recover from an EWRC. I am not eager for one

[Blown Away]

Melissa is supposed to be going N at 78.1W and continues moving WNW. This should move the landfall point farther W on Jamaica.