NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[GCANE]

About 12nm west of forecast track

[Blown Away]

Melissa definitely WSW of the track.

[BobHarlem]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/sgPtRP8N/Melissa.jpg [/url]
Melissa is supposed to be going N at 78.1W and continues moving WNW. This should move the landfall point farther W on Jamaica.

11pm forecast had it getting to 78.2W. I wish the forecast points were at 6 hour intervals instead of 12 to align better with advisories -- it always gets folks thinking there's a track shift, when there actually wasn't (as is the case here). But it's not really off unless it gets beyond 78.2W.

[GCANE]

Seeing the feeder band creating a number of hot towers as it impinges on the main circulation.
Wonder if this will create a new eyewall.

[Stormgodess]

Does anyone know where Josh is riding out the storm? Any other chasers decide to go to Jamaica?

Not chasers but United Cajun Navy has a crew staged in Kingston for search/rescue/recovery. Not sure how large a group though because they still have a large crew in Alaska

Thats mindblowing.... and really cool too .
I had no clue they as an organization were that large or that organized.

The guys that organized around the Aug 2016 Floods then went on to work Harvey in TX. Seemed to have really gotten their stuff together. They spent months and months in North Carolina too.

[chaser1]

I just looked, and there are 202 guests on this thread...wow

Perhaps Bing [BOT] & Google [BOT] brought all their [BOT] friends

[BobHarlem]

Not chasers but United Cajun Navy has a crew staged in Kingston for search/rescue/recovery. Not sure how large a group though because they still have a large crew in Alaska

Thats mindblowing.... and really cool too .
I had no clue they as an organization were that large or that organized.

The guys that organized around the Aug 2016 Floods then went on to work Harvey in TX. Seemed to have really gotten their stuff together. They spent months and months in North Carolina too.

Beyond Josh, Jeff Piotrowski is there that I know of. Bryce Shelton and Paige Berdomas. Josh is Mandeville at the Golf View Hotel, but only as a home base he'll wind up wherever the eye goes (Probably close to Treasure Beach) This is an incredibly dangerous one for outsiders to go to because of the mountains, so I suspect this one may wind up with folks stuck for extended periods of time.

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/sgPtRP8N/Melissa.jpg [/url]
Melissa is supposed to be going N at 78.1W and continues moving WNW. This should move the landfall point farther W on Jamaica.

11pm forecast had it getting to 78.2W. I wish the forecast points were at 6 hour intervals to align better with advisories. But it's not really off unless it gets beyond 78.2W.

5am had N turn at 78.1W, not a big difference, but that core is not huge, so 10-20 miles here or there will make a difference at landfall for someone.

[Beef Stew]

Not quite sure where 907 is coming from in the VDM, but we’ll see what the NHC goes with in a little over an hour.

[GCANE]

Longitude is just about at the west end of Jamaica with it wobbling to the SW.
I don't know.

[kevin]

210 kt instantaneous wind at 907 mb in the NE eyewall. Not sure if I've ever seen a 200+ kt reading on a dropsonde, even at altitude.

[Zonacane]

EDIT; haven’t had enough caffeine yet, don’t mind me.

[Beef Stew]

210 kt instantaneous wind at 907 mb in the NE eyewall. Not sure if I've ever seen a 200+ kt reading on a dropsonde, even at altitude.

https://i.imgur.com/efYzoRe.png

Insane reading- I can’t remember seeing anything that high either off the top of my head. Dorian or Milton maybe? I know the NHC is usually quite hesitant about using dropsondes to upgrade wind speed, but I’d have to think that these readings (even with the reduction from instantaneous winds) plus the consistent 155+ FL winds in most quadrants of Melissa are enough to justify at least 145 kts at this point. Depending on the weight given to dropsondes and SFMR, an argument could be made for 150, but I’d be shocked if they went that high.

[zzzh]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432358847577587866/MELISSA_AF308_2013A_vdm_202510271251.png?ex=6900c3a1&is=68ff7221&hm=7e41ce078a486cc00c47687a437e6e4ae879b3a0c12601c124f161543a58d662&

Vdm has 907mb

extrap pressure

The AF plane never measured any sub-910 extrap pressure, though. Even the NOAA didn't go that low (and I wouldn't expect an AF VDM to use NOAA data).

The original VDM message only said 916 mb, and AF's dropsonade data hasn't been available yet. So I have no idea where the 907 could have plausibly come from.

here is the full VDM:

URNT12 KNHC 271316
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132025
A. 27/12:51:50Z
B. 16.30 deg N 078.09 deg W
C. 700 mb 2353 m
D. EXTRAP 907 mb
E. NA
F. CLOSED
G. C10
H. 154 kt
I. 249 deg 4 nm 12:48:00Z
J. 320 deg 153 kt
K. 249 deg 4 nm 12:48:00Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. NA
O. NA
P. 7 C / 3042 m
Q. 25 C / 3035 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0 nm
U. AF308 2013A MELISSA OB 10
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
MAX FL WIND 158 KT 008 / 6 NM 11:35:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[Extratropical94]

210 kt instantaneous wind at 907 mb in the NE eyewall. Not sure if I've ever seen a 200+ kt reading on a dropsonde, even at altitude.

https://i.imgur.com/efYzoRe.png

I believe Beryl last year had a drop with a quadruple pennant, can't remember though if it was >200kts or "just" 198/199. Definitely not 210.

Edit:

According to the tropicalatlantic.com archives, it was 198. https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde

Highest in Milton was 189. https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... duct=sonde

[MarioProtVI]

This season is really odd with now THREE C5s, and everything else not named Erin, Humberto, Gabrielle and Imelda ended up underwhelming, yet were likely to end with above-average ACE. Very weird.

Also that dropsonde is insane and I think is the highest gust (210 kt) measured in a TC in a dropsonde besting out Megi by 1 kt..

[Category5Kaiju]

This season is really odd with now THREE C5s, and everything else not named Erin, Humberto, Gabrielle and Imelda ended up underwhelming, yet were likely to end with above-average ACE. Very weird.

Also that dropsonde is insane and I think is the highest gust (210 kt) measured in a TC in a dropsonde besting out Megi by 1 kt..

Very 1999 or 2007-like in that sense. The overall conditions/storm strength behavior this year were very binary. Storms that didn't have optimal conditions to strengthen greatly struggled, and storms that did massively overperformed.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Isabel in 2003 had one at like 200kts if I'm remembering correctly. Was a record at the time.

Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[tulum07]

If it does not start the turn NW/N this AM, it is not making landfall in Jamaica.

[Chris90]

A dropsonde in Katrina measured a 234kt gust 53mb above the surface, so Melissa doesn't have the record yet, but she's upper echelon for sure.