NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[WaveBreaking]

[michelinj]

I do think some eyewall replacement cycle is starting or occurring. The last few frames on imagery just show the CDO not as smooth as before. It would also fit in with the last eye drop just being a fraction drier. Whether it's another merger or a full cycle I'm not sure. Recon a while ago didn't show any double wind maxima so if so then it's come on rather quickly. Radar doesn't have much of a moat either so perhaps more merger than replacement.

If an EWRC of sorts is happening then could be a crucial few hours for Jamaica. Have seen it before where a little dry air or shear at just the wrong time when a storm is vulnerable mid-EWRC and it can really weaken a system. On the other hand a successful cycle and the wind field will expand, bringing some pretty populated areas within reach of stronger winds, and with ample time to strengthen further.

So not saying an EWRC is definitely happening, but certainly a change of some kind on IR imagery atm.

[Travorum]

A GOES-19 mesoscale sector that just got switched from looking at the US Northeast to Hurricane Melissa.

Why did they move the one that was there? That seems crazy in the middle of this major event. I was on the other one and it suddenly jumped to the East Coast.

I'm not sure tbh. Never found out how they decide where a meso sector should be. I think NOAA workers can request a meso sector to image a specific place.

I looked back at the OSPO alerts, it seems like it was just a cascading effect that only resolved now. Back when the NHC originally requested the mesoscale sector the SPC had requested a mesocale sector half an hour before, so they got assigned sector 1 and the NHC got sector 2. This is the first time since then that sector 1 was unassigned, so they put sector 2 back in its default position and assigned sector 1 to the NHC.

You can see OSPO alerts for both GOES satellites here, they show mesoscale schedules, outages, and assignments for the other instruments:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/messages/2025/2025-10-include.html

[InfernoFlameCat]

I do think some eyewall replacement cycle is starting or occurring. The last few frames on imagery just show the CDO not as smooth as before. It would also fit in with the last eye drop just being a fraction drier. Whether it's another merger or a full cycle I'm not sure. Recon a while ago didn't show any double wind maxima so if so then it's come on rather quickly. Radar doesn't have much of a moat either so perhaps more merger
If an EWRC of sorts is happening then could be a crucial few hours for Jamaica. Have seen it before where a little dry air or shear at just the wrong time when a storm is vulnerable mid-EWRC and it can really weaken a system. On the other hand a successful cycle and the wind field will expand, bringing some pretty populated areas within reach of stronger winds, and with ample time to strengthen further.

So not saying an EWRC is definitely happening, but certainly a change of some kind on IR imagery atm.

Unfortunately radar shows no such thing

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/RodrickoCowan/status/1982623131207631092

[WaveBreaking]

[Teban54]

The IR (especially its last few frames) do almost look like an EWRC, although that can sometimes be deceiving.

[Nimbus]

With every video coming from Jamaica & many people deciding not to evacuate to a shelter, I'm getting more afraid we're looking at a disaster in the making. The strongest hurricane to ever make landfall on the island was Gilbert at 115 kt. There is a good chance that Melissa will make landfall at 140 - 160 kt. On top of that an estimated 25+ inches of rain will fall on a large portion of the island.

I hope it's because there's still a decent amount of time to get to a shelter and they likely don't have far to go. Staying in a shelter for 2 days sounds horrible. Also it isn't like the states where you can hop on the interstate and drive a couple hundred miles away from a storm, so they're pretty stuck in the local area.

The topography of Kingston makes it safer to shelter in place.
There are many areas within a few blocks of the bay that are above 100 feet that have good drainage and never flood.
Its areas like the airport that are susceptible to surge.
As long as the core winds keep moving west then north, shelter in place is probably going to work in Kingston.

[aspen]

The IR (especially its last few frames) do almost look like an EWRC, although that can sometimes be deceiving.

https://i.imgur.com/4HGlter.gif

I think it’s probably another meld. Radar does still show some concentric outer bands, and the 12z HAFS models predict a meld/very brief EWRC before it unfortunately strengthens again into landfall.

[michelinj]

I do think some eyewall replacement cycle is starting or occurring. The last few frames on imagery just show the CDO not as smooth as before. It would also fit in with the last eye drop just being a fraction drier. Whether it's another merger or a full cycle I'm not sure. Recon a while ago didn't show any double wind maxima so if so then it's come on rather quickly. Radar doesn't have much of a moat either so perhaps more merger
If an EWRC of sorts is happening then could be a crucial few hours for Jamaica. Have seen it before where a little dry air or shear at just the wrong time when a storm is vulnerable mid-EWRC and it can really weaken a system. On the other hand a successful cycle and the wind field will expand, bringing some pretty populated areas within reach of stronger winds, and with ample time to strengthen further.

So not saying an EWRC is definitely happening, but certainly a change of some kind on IR imagery atm.

Unfortunately radar shows no such thing

Yeah it's difficult to tell, but something different with satellite in the last half hour for sure imo. Some really really cold cloud tops in a perfect ring just away from the eye and some noticeable warming nearest the eye. Could be seeing things though as I've been staring at this imagery all day now!

[Hurricane2022]

The IR (especially its last few frames) do almost look like an EWRC, although that can sometimes be deceiving.

https://i.imgur.com/4HGlter.gif

She still looks pretty much intact so far IMO.

[Woofde]

The IR (especially its last few frames) do almost look like an EWRC, although that can sometimes be deceiving.

https://i.imgur.com/4HGlter.gif

I think it’s probably another meld. Radar does still show some concentric outer bands, and the 12z HAFS models predict a meld/very brief EWRC before it unfortunately strengthens again into landfall.

If 12z HAFS are to be believed this is likely peaking right now, the meld slows it down a touch afterwards. Very easily could be <900mb, 165kts and we will have no recon to catch it until after its peaks. The current IR presentation does make the theory believable.

[CrazyC83]

The IR (especially its last few frames) do almost look like an EWRC, although that can sometimes be deceiving.

https://i.imgur.com/4HGlter.gif

I think it’s probably another meld. Radar does still show some concentric outer bands, and the 12z HAFS models predict a meld/very brief EWRC before it unfortunately strengthens again into landfall.

If 12z HAFS are to be believed this is likely peaking right now, the meld slows it down a touch afterwards. Very easily could be <900mb, 165kts and we will have no recon to catch it until after its peaks. The current IR presentation does make the theory believable.

If it has intensified more, which satellite suggests, I'd go with 155 kt and 900 mb for the advisory.

[Michele B]

Yeah, I think Melissa is still deepening. Just a violent hurricane. 11am NHC discussion said the NOAA aircraft had to bail out earlier because of the extreme turbulence.

I wonder, thinking out loud, when the last time that has happened.

Not the plane turning back, but I seem to recall turbulence was so horrible during a flight into Ian (I think it was Ian) that some of the crew actually got physically sick!

[TallyTracker]

This is truly stunning. The high-end model forecasts are coming to fruition whether Melissa ultimately goes sub-900 or not.

[sasha_B]

It's possible - if not particularly likely - that this current "peak" (if that's what it is) will hold until recon arrives, or at least until just before. It'll be a while yet, but Melissa's structure has shown itself to be remarkably resilient so far.

[Iceresistance]

It's possible - if not particularly likely - that this current "peak" (if that's what it is) will hold until recon arrives, or at least until just before. It'll be a while yet, but Melissa's structure has shown itself to be remarkably resilient so far.

What makes it even more insane is the fact that all the wind shear did was just make the inner eyewall stronger and prevent true EWRCs, just eyewall melds instead

[Michele B]

Needs to pass 905 mb to reach the top 10 most intense Atlantic hurricanes. Hugging the threshold now.

Wouldn't surprise me if this one did it.

[Teban54]

It's possible - if not particularly likely - that this current "peak" (if that's what it is) will hold until recon arrives, or at least until just before. It'll be a while yet, but Melissa's structure has shown itself to be remarkably resilient so far.

What makes it even more insane is the fact that all the wind shear did was just make the inner eyewall stronger and prevent true EWRCs, just eyewall melds instead

Slightly off-topic question: Did something similar happen to Irma? I wasn't tracking storms in 2017, but I recall Irma being one of the most well-known examples of intense storms that never (or rarely) went through a true EWRC in favor of repeated eyewall melds. Was shear a contributing factor there too?

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Poor birds
 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/1982860167860629782

Holy crap I thought the birds made it into the eye. Guess they did not.

It seems the hurricanes don’t just eat warm seawater…