NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[floridasun]

anyone have backup jamica radar site their site down?

[Travorum]

anyone have backup jamica radar site their site down?

Here's an alternate source, but it hasn't been able to update for an hour and a half.

https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?960

[aspen]

You know that the CDO is violent when the pink/CDG colors just start blinking rather than rotating... But it looks like Melissa is still making an attempt at wrapping it around.

https://i.imgur.com/B8jx8ve.gif

I pointed this out earlier but look at how the CDO transitions to a near-perfect circle about halfway through, after being slightly oblate at the start of the loop. It’s somehow getting even better than it already was.

CDO is definitely cooler and rounder, but the eye has been dropping in temp over the past few frames + becoming a little more unstable. At the same time, it appears to have contracted. Hard to say whether which factor is overpowering here.

I think it’s an EWRC or another meld. Starring to look like it on the IR meso floater.

[Ubuntwo]

I pointed this out earlier but look at how the CDO transitions to a near-perfect circle about halfway through, after being slightly oblate at the start of the loop. It’s somehow getting even better than it already was.

CDO is definitely cooler and rounder, but the eye has been dropping in temp over the past few frames + becoming a little more unstable. At the same time, it appears to have contracted. Hard to say whether which factor is overpowering here.

Could both the bolded parts have to do with sunset and the cooling tropopause?

https://i.imgur.com/YtbptXO.gif

Could be the case for the CDO, but you can see the formerly clear eye has developed more low clouds on vis. These seem to be tied to increasing mesovort activity - which is a bit of an odd development for a storm already at 150kt.

[Teban54]

You can watch rotating hot towers on 1-min meso floaters the same way you'd typically see them in intensifying hurricanes on 10-min satellite loops.

[StormPyrate]

this thing refuses to cooperate with the official track, just keeps lugging west

[Beef Stew]

I think Milton may be the only other Atlantic hurricane that I can recall seeing that looked this good on satellite (Eta too, but that was an oddity). It’s hard to put in to words just how impressive Melissa looks. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a sub 900 mb storm now or shortly ago, but then again she’s looked that way for much of the past day.

[SteveM]

Might just be me, but she's looking a little less impressive on the last couple of IR frames. EWRC incoming or ?

[kronotsky]

I wonder if the asymmetry and (ever-so-slight, almost unnoticeable) cooling in the eye is simply related to the fact that a very intense band of convection has just wrapped around the eye. That seems like a sign of strengthening, no?

[tolakram]

source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

[Nimbus]

CDO is definitely cooler and rounder, but the eye has been dropping in temp over the past few frames + becoming a little more unstable. At the same time, it appears to have contracted. Hard to say whether which factor is overpowering here.

Could both the bolded parts have to do with sunset and the cooling tropopause?

https://i.imgur.com/YtbptXO.gif

Could be the case for the CDO, but you can see the formerly clear eye has developed more low clouds on vis. These seem to be tied to increasing mesovort activity - which is a bit of an odd development for a storm already at 150kt.

I've seen some mesovortex activity come and go all day but only two or three in the low clouds.
Something to do with the low level inflow characteristics humidity/temperature?

[Woofde]

I wonder if the asymmetry and (ever-so-slight, almost unnoticeable) cooling in the eye is simply related to the fact that a very intense band of convection has just wrapped around the eye. That seems like a sign of strengthening, no?

It certainly could be yeah. The burst that began at 21:50:30Z on the meso imagery and subsequently ripped around the eye was very intense. It remains to be seen, there has been more wobbling of the eye recently, but that can also be a sign of intensification. We'll know better shortly.

[AtlanticWind]

this thing refuses to cooperate with the official track, just keeps lugging west

That may help Eastern parts of Jamaica a little
But won’t change the big picture
The trough’s is there and she’s about to turn

[tolakram]

saved image just before sunset.

[Fancy1002]

Am I seeing things, or is it starting to move slightly west southwest in the last couple frames??

[tolakram]

Am I seeing things, or is it starting to move slightly west southwest in the last couple frames??

Yea, I see it too, but it could be just that new convective burst making it wobble or appear to wobble.

[Woofde]

source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Still continuing west... turns like these are notoriously hard to forecast. When it finally decides to cut North could significantly change who receives the worst of the impacts. It's gotta be hard watching and waiting for this living in Jamaica.

[tolakram]

source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

https://i.imgur.com/wZqap69.gif

Still continuing west... turns like these are notoriously hard to forecast. When it finally decides to cut North could significantly change who receives the worst of the impacts. It's gotta be hard watching and waiting for this living in Jamaica.

Yea, and it still might hit that next forecast point, but I would expect it to stop westward movement soon.

[Beef Stew]

Am I seeing things, or is it starting to move slightly west southwest in the last couple frames??

It looks that way, but I suspect it’s still more so the result of trochoidal motion leading to stair-stepping rather than a dramatic shift. That being said, I try not to wobble-watch until right before landfall but Melissa does seem hellbent on staying on the western edge of the forecast.

[SteveM]

Am I seeing things, or is it starting to move slightly west southwest in the last couple frames??

Trochoidal movement, I think, so not indicative of a general trend in that direction. That said, it does seem a little more W than expected.