NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

this thing refuses to cooperate with the official track, just keeps lugging west

That may help Eastern parts of Jamaica a little
But won’t change the big picture
The trough’s is there and she’s about to turn

[tolakram]

saved image just before sunset.

[Fancy1002]

Am I seeing things, or is it starting to move slightly west southwest in the last couple frames??

[tolakram]

Am I seeing things, or is it starting to move slightly west southwest in the last couple frames??

Yea, I see it too, but it could be just that new convective burst making it wobble or appear to wobble.

[Woofde]

source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Still continuing west... turns like these are notoriously hard to forecast. When it finally decides to cut North could significantly change who receives the worst of the impacts. It's gotta be hard watching and waiting for this living in Jamaica.

[tolakram]

source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

https://i.imgur.com/wZqap69.gif

Still continuing west... turns like these are notoriously hard to forecast. When it finally decides to cut North could significantly change who receives the worst of the impacts. It's gotta be hard watching and waiting for this living in Jamaica.

Yea, and it still might hit that next forecast point, but I would expect it to stop westward movement soon.

[Beef Stew]

Am I seeing things, or is it starting to move slightly west southwest in the last couple frames??

It looks that way, but I suspect it’s still more so the result of trochoidal motion leading to stair-stepping rather than a dramatic shift. That being said, I try not to wobble-watch until right before landfall but Melissa does seem hellbent on staying on the western edge of the forecast.

[SteveM]

Am I seeing things, or is it starting to move slightly west southwest in the last couple frames??

Trochoidal movement, I think, so not indicative of a general trend in that direction. That said, it does seem a little more W than expected.

[Woofde]

Any guesses for intensity when recon hits the core?

[hurricaneCW]

Am I seeing things, or is it starting to move slightly west southwest in the last couple frames??

That's a harbinger of a N to NNE movement soon.

[Steve H.]

Well here on the east central coast of Florida, I’ve been waiting for this “cold” front to make passage. Overall it’s associated with a deep east coast trough that is expected to dig in. The longer it takes, the longer the storm will continue to creep westward in my opinion.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is a very dramatic western shift... I wonder if any inner core dynamics are actually driving it.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

This is definitely one of the more p*ssed off looking hurricanes I've seen in the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/JFxYQC8.png

Or maybe she’s happy given that she’s at peak performance. It’s we that are the unhappy ones.

(My personal personification headcanon: the reason a hurricane is so destructive is not because it is hostile to us, but because we’re essentially passing through their digestive tract or something)

[Travorum]

It's filled in a bit it seems, 910.1mb extrap. Interested to see the dropsonde

[aspen]

Getting very close to a full pink ring on Tropcial Tidbits IR imagery. I have to wonder if the burst that caused it was due to an EWRC/meld or not. NOAA will be penetrating the side of the eyewall that burst originated from, so we should get some answers in moments.

Edit: no double wind maxima, but lower FL winds and ~910mb extrap

[mrbagyo]

910.1 - Extrapolated
146 - Flight Level

[PavelGaborik10]

She peaked earlier.

[cainjamin]

910 pressure with 43 knot winds, could still be around 906 based on that.

[Fancy1002]

Apparently the plane had to dodge a meso, so the pressure is likely lower cause they probably missed the eye

[michelinj]

I do think some eyewall replacement cycle is starting or occurring. The last few frames on imagery just show the CDO not as smooth as before. It would also fit in with the last eye drop just being a fraction drier. Whether it's another merger or a full cycle I'm not sure. Recon a while ago didn't show any double wind maxima so if so then it's come on rather quickly. Radar doesn't have much of a moat either so perhaps more merger than replacement.

If an EWRC of sorts is happening then could be a crucial few hours for Jamaica. Have seen it before where a little dry air or shear at just the wrong time when a storm is vulnerable mid-EWRC and it can really weaken a system. On the other hand a successful cycle and the wind field will expand, bringing some pretty populated areas within reach of stronger winds, and with ample time to strengthen further.

So not saying an EWRC is definitely happening, but certainly a change of some kind on IR imagery atm.

I think we did indeed see an EWRC earlier. Perhaps it’s completed as no double wind maxima on recon. Next few passes will probably show that. If it’s strengthening then EWRC done and on the mend. If it’s stable or weaker then perhaps she’s still sorting some stuff out under the hood