NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Woofde]

Apparently the plane had to dodge a meso, so the pressure is likely lower cause they probably missed the eye

Its a weird looking pass thats for sure, flight level winds never went to zero like you would expect. Waiting for an eyedrop to confirm.

[Teban54]

I believe this NOAA plane has TDR, so it would make it easier to see what's under the hood and the progress of an EWRC (if any).

[michelinj]

Latest eye drop showing 114kts at the surface? That feels too low unless I’m missing something. She’s definitely weakened a touch but that seems a little extreme

Edit: Another with 99kts so definitely something not quite right in that eyewall

[hipshot]

Well here on the east central coast of Florida, I’ve been waiting for this “cold” front to make passage. Overall it’s associated with a deep east coast trough that is expected to dig in. The longer it takes, the longer the storm will continue to creep westward in my opinion.

According to Levi, the turn north is going to be caused by a ridge to its east that has won out over the ridge to the west. After that
turn, the trough will begin to pick it up and sling it through Cuba and the Bahamas and on out to Bermuda.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

As the storm crosses the island, I'd expect some wild movements due to the mountains. Thats if it does turn!

[tolakram]

Impressive wobble, this might be a full loop if the SW motion continues.

[Fancy1002]

I could be wrong, but it sounds like they definitely did not hit the Center, and the other plane that’s coming in has better equipment on it so we should take this current stuff with a grain of salt.

[eastcoastFL]

She peaked earlier.

Might be a little too early to say that still

[Keldeo1997]

No double wind max

[aspen]

No Cat 5 FL winds in the SE eyewall. Perhaps Melissa peaked during or shortly after last flight and internal dynamics have triggered slight weakening since? Very odd pass overall.

[kronotsky]

Latest eye drop showing 114kts at the surface? That feels too low unless I’m missing something. She’s definitely weakened a touch but that seems a little extreme

Edit: Another with 99kts so definitely something not quite right in that eyewall

Pressure from both sondes in the 950s at the surface – unless we think that Melissa is a 940.mb storm, it's safe to assume that those drops missed the eyewall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

CDO cooling again. A new deepening phase might be about to begin.

[hipshot]

Latest eye drop showing 114kts at the surface? That feels too low unless I’m missing something. She’s definitely weakened a touch but that seems a little extreme

Edit: Another with 99kts so definitely something not quite right in that eyewall

Pressure from both sondes in the 950s at the surface – unless we think that Melissa is a 940.mb storm, it's safe to assume that those drops missed the eyewall.

When they drop those sondes inside the eye, how do we know where they actually windup. I guess they have a means to transmit their
position but as strong as those winds are, good luck!

[Travorum]

Here's the eye dropsonde, also supports 910mb:

[Beef Stew]

Data from that last pass seems odd all around. While I don’t doubt she’s weakened some since earlier (I personally think she may have peaked, at least initially, approximately ~2 hours after the AF plane left), I’m waiting for another pass before I’m sold on this much of a reduction for FL winds.

[eastcoastFL]

Latest eye drop showing 114kts at the surface? That feels too low unless I’m missing something. She’s definitely weakened a touch but that seems a little extreme

Edit: Another with 99kts so definitely something not quite right in that eyewall

Pressure from both sondes in the 950s at the surface – unless we think that Melissa is a 940.mb storm, it's safe to assume that those drops missed the eyewall.

When they drop those sondes inside the eye, how do we know where they actually windup. I guess they have a means to transmit their
position but as strong as those winds are, good luck!

They dropped one last night in the NE eyewall and it landed on the western side of the storm.

[michelinj]

CDO cooling again. A new deepening phase might be about to begin.

I think it’s just the sunset causing that effect to be honest. I’ll be surprised if she deepens at the moment but can’t say for sure of course

[cheezyWXguy]

Data from that last pass seems odd all around. While I don’t doubt she’s weakened some since earlier (I personally think she may have peaked, at least initially, approximately ~2 hours after the AF plane left), I’m waiting for another pass before I’m sold on this much of a reduction for FL winds.

Agreed, I think the FL measurements seem plausible but these dropsondes all seem…weird? 45% RH on drop 2 in the cdo? No T/Td spread in the eye drop? Odd…

[Beef Stew]

I do think that it’s entirely possible that some of the perturbations we’ve seen on imagery these past few hours are from another eyewall meld, but it’s impossible to say for sure. If we can get a TDR image we’d possibly have a better idea.

[zhukm29]

This is definitely one of the more p*ssed off looking hurricanes I've seen in the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/JFxYQC8.png

Totally understandable since every previous iteration of Melissa has been a shortie that never made it to hurricane strength. I’d be upset too if every iteration of my existence was a letdown/failure of some sort (weakest named storm of 2007 even among multiple other 35kt systems, forgettable subtropical system to cap off the infamous 2013 season, and the one to break the formidable M-named cat 5 streak in 2019)… must be a lot of pent up anger lol

Must have been how Beryl felt also with one of the longest streaks of failing to become a hurricane