NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[galaxy401]

It hit the ridge, wobbled a bit, now stationary to just a bit of eastward motion IMO.

I wonder if the NNE motion is now starting with Melissa. She is a real monster tonight. Only good news is that if she continues to drift, she'll soon start upwelling cooler water. That's how Dorian started to weaken.

[CrazyC83]

Both dropsondes confirm about 906 mb.

[zzzh]

Quite puzzled by the discrepancy between NOAA and AF here, unless Kermit missed the center.

Let's wait for the AF drop to confirm. NOAA's eye drop is already available (907 mb / 6 kt).

907/4kt so around 906-907

[wx98]

The 902 extrap from AF and the NOAA eye drop of 907 at 6 kts supports the notion that this has resumed intensifying.

[Hurricane2000]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432358847577587866/MELISSA_AF308_2013A_vdm_202510271251.png?ex=6900c3a1&is=68ff7221&hm=7e41ce078a486cc00c47687a437e6e4ae879b3a0c12601c124f161543a58d662&

Vdm has 907mb

extrap pressure

The AF plane never measured any sub-910 extrap pressure, though. Even the NOAA didn't go that low (and I wouldn't expect an AF VDM to use NOAA data).

The original VDM message only said 916 mb, and AF's dropsonade data hasn't been available yet. So I have no idea where the 907 could have plausibly come from.

[IsabelaWeather]

It hit the ridge, wobbled a bit, now stationary to just a bit of eastward motion IMO.

I wonder if the NNE motion is now starting with Melissa. She is a real monster tonight. Only good news is that if she continues to drift, she'll soon start upwelling cooler water. That's how Dorian started to weaken.

There wont be any upwelling that matters, 80* goes down to like 600m or something here.

[Teban54]

Both dropsondes confirm about 906 mb.

While this isn't as crazy as the 902.8, it does show that Melissa is still deepening. Both drops are 3 mb lower than the planes' last pass.

[cycloneye]

Air Force dropsonde at 907 mbs.

[Hurricane2022]

Hurricane Melissa reminds me about Ragasa, Bolaven, Mawar, Hinnamnor, Chanthu, Jova, Goni, Halong, Kong-rey, Yutu, Meranti, Patricia, Haiyan, Nida & etc.... dude this is so crazzyyyy

[dukeblue219]

The 902 extrap from AF and the NOAA eye drop of 907 at 6 kts supports the notion that this has resumed intensifying.

The 902mb extrap is not supported by anything else at the moment including back to back drops from multiple planes. I'm not sure it's worth much.

[eastcoastFL]

Extrap 902.8mb!!!

Also with the trends, you could make an easy case for 155 kt and possibly 160 kt.

Absolutely incredible. How long can she keep this up?

[hurricaneCW]

It hit the ridge, wobbled a bit, now stationary to just a bit of eastward motion IMO.

I wonder if the NNE motion is now starting with Melissa. She is a real monster tonight. Only good news is that if she continues to drift, she'll soon start upwelling cooler water. That's how Dorian started to weaken.

Any stationary movement won't last very long plus depth of warm water is very deep. No upwelling here

[ljmac75]

Can we talk about how recon got into the storm and it looked like it had really weakened for like 1 pass? What a storm.

[Jr0d]

It hit the ridge, wobbled a bit, now stationary to just a bit of eastward motion IMO.

I wonder if the NNE motion is now starting with Melissa. She is a real monster tonight. Only good news is that if she continues to drift, she'll soon start upwelling cooler water. That's how Dorian started to weaken.

Unfortunately the warm water column is much deeper with Melissa making upwelling not significant. She will be making that north turn soon besides.

What is crazy is several models suggest Melissa's peak will be after she turns north....

[BobHarlem]

Evening radar loop

[Iceresistance]

I think Melissa killed this dropsonde

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3c0V.png

[wx98]

The 902 extrap from AF and the NOAA eye drop of 907 at 6 kts supports the notion that this has resumed intensifying.

The 902mb extrap is not supported by anything else at the moment including back to back drops from multiple planes. I'm not sure it's worth much.

It is lower than the previous pass. Watching for the trend, not the number…

[michelinj]

Might have to note down the centre fix each pass, without Melissa moving every new pressure measurement will overlap the last on the graphics hahaha

[Keldeo1997]

WV is going nuts again.

[Iceresistance]

Final ADT for Melissa is now 8.2, with Adjusted and Raw ADTs at 8.4 each. This is insanity