NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

NOAA pass: 162 kt FL to the SSE, 152 kt FL to the NNW, 909.2 mb extrap

AF pass: 156 kt FL to the SE, 902.8 mb extrap

Why the huge difference with their extrap pressures, though? Did NOAA miss the center?

That seems likely.

[CrazyC83]

Is this supposed to still make landfall in Jamaica? the further west it gets the more I think it will miss it and then make landfall in Cuba instead.

Yes, in western Jamaica.

But if it misses Jamaica, that is terrible for Cuba, since it won't weaken nearly as much due to land interaction (if at all).

[Beef Stew]

Quite puzzled by the discrepancy between NOAA and AF here, unless Kermit missed the center.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh wow, 902.8?

Remember when sub-900 mbar storms normally happened every decade, if not longer?

Should Melissa actually make it below 900, 2024-2025 would have the extraordinary distinction of being the first time in recorded history that sub-900 mbar storms happened in back to back years.

[Hurricane2022]

That's a drop of 6-7 mb from the last pass. Should this continue and we may see something like 898-896 mb in the next pass. Another historic and unforgettable night to us, especially for the people of Jamaica and Cuba.

[Teban54]

Quite puzzled by the discrepancy between NOAA and AF here, unless Kermit missed the center.

Let's wait for the AF drop to confirm. NOAA's eye drop is already available (907 mb / 6 kt).

[tolakram]

It hit the ridge, wobbled a bit, now stationary to just a bit of eastward motion IMO.

saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-25-2&checked=latlon-usint-map&colorbar=undefined

[Jr0d]

Wow...we may see a sub 900mb storm overnight. Just incredible.

I just hope recon brought extra dropsondes, I think the AF may have ran out this morning as their were none dropped on their final eye pass.

We may may get a chance to see a higher winds from the dropsondes than this morning's 210kts @917mb pressure altitude(iirc the surface at that drop was 935mb)

[galaxy401]

It hit the ridge, wobbled a bit, now stationary to just a bit of eastward motion IMO.

I wonder if the NNE motion is now starting with Melissa. She is a real monster tonight. Only good news is that if she continues to drift, she'll soon start upwelling cooler water. That's how Dorian started to weaken.

[CrazyC83]

Both dropsondes confirm about 906 mb.

[zzzh]

Quite puzzled by the discrepancy between NOAA and AF here, unless Kermit missed the center.

Let's wait for the AF drop to confirm. NOAA's eye drop is already available (907 mb / 6 kt).

907/4kt so around 906-907

[wx98]

The 902 extrap from AF and the NOAA eye drop of 907 at 6 kts supports the notion that this has resumed intensifying.

[Hurricane2000]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432358847577587866/MELISSA_AF308_2013A_vdm_202510271251.png?ex=6900c3a1&is=68ff7221&hm=7e41ce078a486cc00c47687a437e6e4ae879b3a0c12601c124f161543a58d662&

Vdm has 907mb

extrap pressure

The AF plane never measured any sub-910 extrap pressure, though. Even the NOAA didn't go that low (and I wouldn't expect an AF VDM to use NOAA data).

The original VDM message only said 916 mb, and AF's dropsonade data hasn't been available yet. So I have no idea where the 907 could have plausibly come from.

[IsabelaWeather]

It hit the ridge, wobbled a bit, now stationary to just a bit of eastward motion IMO.

I wonder if the NNE motion is now starting with Melissa. She is a real monster tonight. Only good news is that if she continues to drift, she'll soon start upwelling cooler water. That's how Dorian started to weaken.

There wont be any upwelling that matters, 80* goes down to like 600m or something here.

[Teban54]

Both dropsondes confirm about 906 mb.

While this isn't as crazy as the 902.8, it does show that Melissa is still deepening. Both drops are 3 mb lower than the planes' last pass.

[cycloneye]

Air Force dropsonde at 907 mbs.

[Hurricane2022]

Hurricane Melissa reminds me about Ragasa, Bolaven, Mawar, Hinnamnor, Chanthu, Jova, Goni, Halong, Kong-rey, Yutu, Meranti, Patricia, Haiyan, Nida & etc.... dude this is so crazzyyyy

[dukeblue219]

The 902 extrap from AF and the NOAA eye drop of 907 at 6 kts supports the notion that this has resumed intensifying.

The 902mb extrap is not supported by anything else at the moment including back to back drops from multiple planes. I'm not sure it's worth much.

[eastcoastFL]

Extrap 902.8mb!!!

Also with the trends, you could make an easy case for 155 kt and possibly 160 kt.

Absolutely incredible. How long can she keep this up?

[hurricaneCW]

It hit the ridge, wobbled a bit, now stationary to just a bit of eastward motion IMO.

I wonder if the NNE motion is now starting with Melissa. She is a real monster tonight. Only good news is that if she continues to drift, she'll soon start upwelling cooler water. That's how Dorian started to weaken.

Any stationary movement won't last very long plus depth of warm water is very deep. No upwelling here