NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1983007060062269768

Google DeepMind has really, really nailed Melissa. It's one of the most difficult forecasts of recent times (if not ever), and it was pretty much the only one that had been consistently right on track and intensity.

NHC's discussions had repeatedly highlighted the GDM ensembles, at times even following their ensemble intensity to the point of issuing forecasts higher than all physics-based models (and yes, that included HAFS-A/B and HWRF at some point). That ended up verifying.

[NDG]

Odd eyewall drop. Winds drop from 140 kt to 122 kt right above the surface, then pick up to 160+ kt by the 919mb level.

Also over 190 kt a few hundred feet above the surface. If that can penetrate down...

While the mountains of Jamaica will disrupt the eyewall, they are also high enough to see some of those 180kt+ winds if Melissa maintains the eyewall until landfall.

Not a good situation and I hope those in Jamaica are taking their final precautions before impact. I am also worried that some of these lesser experienced 'storm chasers' will put themselves in harm way in hopes of getting socual media clout.

I doubt the 2k-2.5k foot tall hills/mountains of western Jamaica will disrupt the eyewall that much compared to the 7k+ mountains in eastern Jamaica.
But I do agree with those hills will experience much higher winds like they did in Puerto Rico during Maria.

[aspen]

As if Melissa couldn’t get any more ludicrous, the eye looks to be warming and the CDG is thickening on Dvorak imagery. I’ll be very surprised if next pass doesn’t yield 898-900mb, or lower.

[HurricaneRyan]

THE M CURSE

https://i.imgur.com/nHVZTh0.gif

LMFAO I love this. Great comedic relief.

[Pelicane]

My god, I step away for like an hour and a half and come back to see the best Haiyan impression I’ve ever seen an Atlantic hurricane do. Melissa may “only” be the 9th most intense, but this has to be the most elite looking hurricane I’ve ever seen in this basin. Even the likes of Wilma, Gilbert, and Milton didn’t stand this tall imo.

I always thought Haiyan was the most insane looking storm I've ever seen on satellite. Melissa is not far behind at the moment.

[CrazyC83]

Crazy how we have two "M" storms from two years in a row making the list. Guess the M curse is a thing

I told ya'll a couple of days ago I was moving the "I" curse to "M"

As I analyzed here earlier today, the M curse is actually more saliant during the most recent active streak (2016-2025) than the I curse. Five M names were retired (or almost certainly will) -- averaging one every other year -- while "only" three I names were:

https://i.imgur.com/m6XcCHa.png

Some more discussions in this comment.

Excellent analysis. It seems the I's have slowed down a bit, but yeah the M's are taking over. This will be a 4th generation name we move onto in 2031...especially in a year that, until late October, looked like we were going to get out of without any retirements (which was itself remarkable with two category 5's).

[galaxy401]

Happy 100 pages! Melissa celebrated by making the top 10 in most intense Atlantic hurricanes.

As some mentioned, the M storms have become very powerful hurricanes as well. The last 10 years has Matthew, Maria, Michael, Milton, and now Melissa.

[USTropics]

Crazy how we have two "M" storms from two years in a row making the list. Guess the M curse is a thing

Weird that despite the “I” curse, there’s no I storms here and 3 M storms.

Strongest of the "I" storms was Ivan at 910 mb, followed by Irma at 914 mb.

I think the I storms are more synonymous with US landfalls. Maria, Melissa, Michelle, and Mitch (and really Matthew) are going to be/were devastating cyclones for the Caribbean/Central America.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1983007060062269768

Google DeepMind has really, really nailed Melissa. It's one of the most difficult forecasts of recent times (if not ever), and it was pretty much the only one that had been consistently right on track and intensity.

NHC's discussions had repeatedly highlighted the GDM ensembles, at times even following their ensemble intensity to the point of issuing forecasts higher than all physics-based models (and yes, that included HAFS-A/B and HWRF at some point). That ended up verifying.

It didn't do well at first before the system was formed/established showing it to head toward Hispaniola but once it had a firm LLC it did the best with the track.

[CrazyC83]

Next pass could at least move Melissa up above Allen, Camille and Katrina at this rate.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I need to go to bed...I'm exhausted, been at this since 4am
edit...well one more pass wont hurt anything

[REDHurricane]

Hurricane models have Melissa strengthening up until landfall -- if that holds true we maaaaaybe could get in the ballpark of Wilma. Maybe.

[psyclone]

Most major hurricanes approach Jamaica from the ESE. With the mountainous island oriented that same direction, hurricanes frequently duck in a game of chicken with the island and miss... Gilbert being a very noteworthy exception. Now we have a hurricane pointed perpendicular at the island....making escape impossible. This is a remarkable event...not just the storm intensity but the direction of attack. this one will stand out on historical maps

[Hurricane2022]

COLD AS HELL

[eastcoastFL]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432562041914130462/Screenshot_2025-10-27_214917.png?ex=690180de&is=69002f5e&hm=a05b8de0c86aa20a3a50242dde972b09ac76d622ec18abc2ba647d545752dc15&=&format=webp&quality=lossless

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432562042484686918/image1.png?ex=690180de&is=69002f5e&hm=2af831500debd242480702edba4cd732588a502362ed794697603cfb5fd551fb&=&format=webp&quality=lossless&width=825&height=702

Hmm there is no Double wind max

Is Jamaica under all that rain?

[Teban54]

As if Melissa couldn’t get any more ludicrous, the eye looks to be warming and the CDG is thickening on Dvorak imagery. I’ll be very surprised if next pass doesn’t yield 898-900mb, or lower.

I find CyclonicWx (by Alex Boreham, aka NotSparta on S2K) to be pretty good at viewing the -80~90 C range with greater detail. What it's showing right now is straight up ridiculous.

[NDG]

Weird how each intense Hurricane is different, it hasn't had an EWRC at all since it became a MH while others barely last a few hours to start their EWRCs.

[Nuno]

Crazy how we have two "M" storms from two years in a row making the list. Guess the M curse is a thing

Weird that despite the “I” curse, there’s no I storms here and 3 M storms.

Strongest of the "I" storms was Ivan at 910 mb, followed by Irma at 914 mb.

Crazy that Irma wasn't lower in her lifespan. Was she just too large?

[HurricaneRyan]

When you realize that this will probably be landfalling tomorrow morning California time.

[CrazyC83]

One thing that is scary: these -90C cloud top outer bands are hitting Jamaica and likely producing massive flooding and mudslides in the mountains...and will continue to do so...