NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2401 Postby zzzh » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:13 am

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This is just another level
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2402 Postby dukeblue219 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:13 am

wx98 wrote:Looks like the AF plane is going home. Must be shaken up.

Never got a VDM did we? And just a lone sonde in the eye? Must be crazy in there right now. I can only hope everyone is ok.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2403 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:13 am

Teban54 wrote:With an official intensity of 892 mb / 160 kt, Melissa now holds the records of:

  • 3rd lowest pressure, behind Wilma and Gilbert, and tied with Labor Day
  • 2nd highest wind speed, behind Allen, and tied with Labor Day, Gilbert, Wilma and Dorian
  • Lowest pressure and highest wind speed at landfall if maintained until then, tied with Labor Day for both (and Dorian for wind speed)

Wasn't Camille 200mph?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2404 Postby Teban54 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:13 am

:double:

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2405 Postby Beef Stew » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:13 am

We're really about to get the (tied) most intense Atlantic landfall on record... in Jamaica of all places. Absurd.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2406 Postby Fancy1002 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:14 am

Extratropical94 wrote:219 knots on the eyewall drop. This is insane

Would that justify an upgrade to 190 or 195?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2407 Postby Iune » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:14 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Teban54 wrote:With an official intensity of 892 mb / 160 kt, Melissa now holds the records of:

  • 3rd lowest pressure, behind Wilma and Gilbert, and tied with Labor Day
  • 2nd highest wind speed, behind Allen, and tied with Labor Day, Gilbert, Wilma and Dorian
  • Lowest pressure and highest wind speed at landfall if maintained until then, tied with Labor Day for both (and Dorian for wind speed)

Wasn't Camille 200mph?


Reanalysis in 2014 brought Camille's peak down to 175 mph. I believe it was 190 mph beforehand.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2408 Postby Fancy1002 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:15 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Teban54 wrote:With an official intensity of 892 mb / 160 kt, Melissa now holds the records of:

  • 3rd lowest pressure, behind Wilma and Gilbert, and tied with Labor Day
  • 2nd highest wind speed, behind Allen, and tied with Labor Day, Gilbert, Wilma and Dorian
  • Lowest pressure and highest wind speed at landfall if maintained until then, tied with Labor Day for both (and Dorian for wind speed)

Wasn't Camille 200mph?

No, highest is Allen at 190.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2409 Postby USTropics » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:16 am

Extratropical94 wrote:219 knots on the eyewall drop. This is insane


Yesterday's dropsonde measurement of 210kt was the highest ever recorded (this just set the new record).
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2410 Postby Beef Stew » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:18 am

That's probably the craziest dropsonde I've ever seen
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2411 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:18 am

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/WxAyAiP.png
This is just another level


That's one for the record books
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2412 Postby michelinj » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:18 am

Fancy1002 wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:219 knots on the eyewall drop. This is insane

Would that justify an upgrade to 190 or 195?

The dropsonde value was aloft not surface. And also those measuremnts are instantaneous. So they can find some even more extreme values than gust speed. Still incomprehensible however.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2413 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:18 am

That's an over 250 MPH wind gust from a dropsonde!
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2414 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:19 am

Fancy1002 wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:219 knots on the eyewall drop. This is insane

Would that justify an upgrade to 190 or 195?


165kt/190mph would definitely be justifiable with that data. There isn't a single reading below 170 knots in the lowest 100 mb.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2415 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:19 am

michelinj wrote:
Fancy1002 wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:219 knots on the eyewall drop. This is insane

Would that justify an upgrade to 190 or 195?

The dropsonde value was aloft not surface. And also those measuremnts are instantaneous. So they can find some even more extreme values than gust speed. Still incomprehensible however.


We know it is a gust and at elevation but it is still (BY FAR) the highest I have ever seen.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2416 Postby Teban54 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:20 am

The sickening thing is that, due to Jamaica's high elevation, it's plausible that some of the insane winds and gusts aloft in the dropsonade can actually be realized over land.
Last edited by Teban54 on Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2417 Postby wx98 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:20 am

The NOAA plane may be leaving now as well.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2418 Postby Beef Stew » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:21 am

Melissa could very well be a 165 kt/190 mph storm...
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2419 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:21 am

wx98 wrote:The NOAA plane may be leaving now as well.


I wonder if they will say these passes were unsafe.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 10AM

#2420 Postby Teban54 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 9:24 am

Fancy1002 wrote:Are both of the planes leaving? I was hoping for 1 last pass.

Given the absolutely insane eyewall and the AF plane's earlier struggles exiting it, it's more than reasonable for both crews to prioritize their safety. I have my utmost respect for them risking their lives to provide invaluable data for meteorology and the mankind.
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