NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[TheHurricaneGod]

That's an over 250 MPH wind gust from a dropsonde!

[Extratropical94]

219 knots on the eyewall drop. This is insane

Would that justify an upgrade to 190 or 195?

165kt/190mph would definitely be justifiable with that data. There isn't a single reading below 170 knots in the lowest 100 mb.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

219 knots on the eyewall drop. This is insane

Would that justify an upgrade to 190 or 195?

The dropsonde value was aloft not surface. And also those measuremnts are instantaneous. So they can find some even more extreme values than gust speed. Still incomprehensible however.

We know it is a gust and at elevation but it is still (BY FAR) the highest I have ever seen.

[Teban54]

The sickening thing is that, due to Jamaica's high elevation, it's plausible that some of the insane winds and gusts aloft in the dropsonade can actually be realized over land.

[wx98]

The NOAA plane may be leaving now as well.

[Beef Stew]

Melissa could very well be a 165 kt/190 mph storm...

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

The NOAA plane may be leaving now as well.

I wonder if they will say these passes were unsafe.

[Teban54]

Are both of the planes leaving? I was hoping for 1 last pass.

Given the absolutely insane eyewall and the AF plane's earlier struggles exiting it, it's more than reasonable for both crews to prioritize their safety. I have my utmost respect for them risking their lives to provide invaluable data for meteorology and the mankind.

[Category5Kaiju]

I just broke out in a cold sweat now seeing the update.

Holy f***** s***.

[Beef Stew]

Well, it looks like that's going to be all all she wrote from recon prior to landfall. Not that it matters for Jamaica, but one more pass could've possibly have had us tying Allen's windspeeds and breaking Labor Day's MSLP. I'm just happy both planes were able to make it in, get this record-breaking data, and make it out in once piece.

[Travorum]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983174867462537491

[Tekken_Guy]

Is Wilma’s record in jeopardy? Or at least Gilbert’s second place?

[PavelGaborik10]

Is Wilma’s record in jeopardy? Or at least Gilbert’s second place?

Planes are leaving, so probably not.

Wilma would be safe, Gilbert was possibly beatable.

[ATDoel]

Is Wilma’s record in jeopardy? Or at least Gilbert’s second place?

Wilma's record is not unless ground obs find something crazy

[Beef Stew]

Is Wilma’s record in jeopardy? Or at least Gilbert’s second place?

Highly unlikely- we'd have to get a ground measurement of sub-888 mb, which is a solid 5 mb lower than the lowest reading recon had. Even if she does continue to deepen right up to a rapidly approaching landfall, the odds of catching that data on the ground are extremely low.

[Teban54]

Is Wilma’s record in jeopardy? Or at least Gilbert’s second place?

Planes are leaving, so probably not.

Wilma would be safe, Gilbert was likely beatable.

We can still get data from ground observers, such as Josh, in the event that Melissa actually deepens below 892 mb or even Gilbert's 888 mb.

Remember, the Labor Day hurricane's 892 mb record came from a ground report.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Look at these altitude measurements as the AF plane entered the eyewall. 150 meter swings. I've never seen turbulence like that. I bet they bailed because they didn't think the plane would survive another beating like that.

[WaveBreaking]

I thought Humberto would be the last time I’d wake to to something crazy this season, but nope, today I wake up to history being made. Wishing the best for Jamaica.

[GCANE]

Landfall estimated at 11:30 EDT

[Hypercane_Kyle]

These are some of the scariest recon passes I've ever seen. I can't imagine how bad it is on the ground.