NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[rwfromkansas]

This is the storm I wish we had better visibility into ....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Hurricane_of_1780
Another October Caribbean monster ...

I was curious if there was a documentary on this hurricane, found a NOVA episode that kind of recreates it, so I am going to try to find that to watch.

This storm is absolutely a monster.

Is it possible it is wobbling to avoid the higher elevations?

[cheezyWXguy]

The eye still intact despite being well over the mountains

Yeah but you can tell the storm’s structure is taking a hit more than IR would suggest. On visible, it’s getting progressively harder to see the bottom of the eye. This is because the surface circulation’s movement is being slowed relatively by friction with land, while the higher levels aloft continue onward, resulting in tilting. Not to say it isn’t still catastrophically strong, but Jamaica is still going to weaken it by a good amount.

[Exalt]

Sad to say this, but it is crossing near the thinnest stretch of land in Western Jamaica. This bodes poorly for Cuba and the Southern Bahamas.

That’s what I was saying, this west of track movement gives it the most ideal conditions to either stay a Cat 5 or restrengthen over a larger portion of water before Cuba

[jconsor]

Agreed. The part of SE Cuba expected to be hit hardest (Santiago de Cuba) has very little precedent for Cat 3s, and none for Cat 4s:  https://x.com/yconsor/status/1983236668933988715

Sad to say this, but it is crossing near the thinnest stretch of land in Western Jamaica. This bodes poorly for Cuba and the Southern Bahamas.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Looking at the the peak 10 second flight level wind in southeast quadrant of the storm earlier during the Air Force mission. I was trying to give perspective of the wind field from the eye to the southeast compared to some of the coast. Landfall was in New Hope. Josh Morgerman in Crawford.



Closer:

[Exalt]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

[kevin]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

The last dropsonde before leaving had 894 mb with 7 kt surface wind so the most intense dropsonde (892 mb) was one earlier. That makes me think NHC will keep it at 892 mb in post-analysis unless surface measurements show a more intense storm. If they do decide to update it without new surface measurements I don't expect bigger shifts than 890 - 891 mb.

[ATDoel]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

I think the only way they change it is if they get good land based data that indicate it was stronger than measured by HH.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

Haven't seen any evidence to support those numbers.

[cycloneye]

Here is the historic list that Melissa has joined.

[CrazyC83]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

The last dropsonde before leaving had 894 mb with 7 kt surface wind so the most intense dropsonde (892 mb) was one earlier. That makes me think NHC will keep it at 892 mb in post-analysis unless surface measurements show a more intense storm. If they do decide to update it without new surface measurements I don't expect bigger shifts than 890 - 891 mb.

Based on slight warming of the CDO, I'd go with 160 kt and 897 mb at landfall, but a higher peak intensity since it is (a) likely that the maximum winds were not captured by limited Recon penetration, and (b) the 172 kt surface dropsonde. But how high to go? 165 kt? 170 kt? At face value, the dropsonde would support 175 kt, but was that representative of the true intensity, even if supported by Dvorak estimates?

[Beef Stew]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

190 mph, potentially, but it would mean that they either have new data from ground observations or decide to give more weight than usual to the dropsonde instantaneous winds and/or SFMR.

And for MSLP, I highly doubt we get anything below 892. That's the lowest pressure recorded by the dropsonde, and unless there's a lower pressure that someone managed to record in-situ, I'd be really surprised if it changes at all, even if Melissa did have a short amount of time to potentially continue strengthening prior to landfall after the last recon pass.

[Beef Stew]

I'm really curious if there will end up being any sub-900 measurements taken from the ground.

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

Somebody got to see that final eye dot...

[Beef Stew]

As per the most recent position update, Melissa is still a category 5 with winds of 140 kts and an estimated pressure of 906 mb.

[LarryWx]

Per Brad P live feed, Santa Cruz is now flooding. Also, large portions of many towns (homes and cars) are now being swept away by extreme flash flooding coming off the mountains. The way he is talking it sounds catastrophic. One town he mentioned is Mandeville.

And now Jeff P. is witnessing a flooding catastrophe in Santa Cruz in his live feed:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tvgnO_BDGcs

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Here is the historic list that Melissa has joined.

https://i.imgur.com/3JM0cW8.jpeg

This means at some point, I need to make some art/writing/comic where Labor Day and Melissa fight

[aspen]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

190 mph (165 kt) has some support with the 170+ kt FL winds (not even in the typically strongest quadrant) and the 172 kt dropsonde reading. Melissa’s FL winds were likely translating very well to the surface, though out of caution I wouldn’t go with 170 kt unless either further analysis of this morning’s recon data or any surviving ground-based observations say otherwise.

The 893/13 drop from AF303 potentially supports 891mb. I could see the NHC revising its lowest pressure to 890-891mb, again also depending on what ground-based data we get.

[mempho]

We just vacationed at Rose Hall Jamaica back in June. Now, they are about to get the eye. This is just terrible.