NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

Haven't seen any evidence to support those numbers.

[cycloneye]

Here is the historic list that Melissa has joined.

[CrazyC83]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

The last dropsonde before leaving had 894 mb with 7 kt surface wind so the most intense dropsonde (892 mb) was one earlier. That makes me think NHC will keep it at 892 mb in post-analysis unless surface measurements show a more intense storm. If they do decide to update it without new surface measurements I don't expect bigger shifts than 890 - 891 mb.

Based on slight warming of the CDO, I'd go with 160 kt and 897 mb at landfall, but a higher peak intensity since it is (a) likely that the maximum winds were not captured by limited Recon penetration, and (b) the 172 kt surface dropsonde. But how high to go? 165 kt? 170 kt? At face value, the dropsonde would support 175 kt, but was that representative of the true intensity, even if supported by Dvorak estimates?

[Beef Stew]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

190 mph, potentially, but it would mean that they either have new data from ground observations or decide to give more weight than usual to the dropsonde instantaneous winds and/or SFMR.

And for MSLP, I highly doubt we get anything below 892. That's the lowest pressure recorded by the dropsonde, and unless there's a lower pressure that someone managed to record in-situ, I'd be really surprised if it changes at all, even if Melissa did have a short amount of time to potentially continue strengthening prior to landfall after the last recon pass.

[Beef Stew]

I'm really curious if there will end up being any sub-900 measurements taken from the ground.

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

Somebody got to see that final eye dot...

[Beef Stew]

As per the most recent position update, Melissa is still a category 5 with winds of 140 kts and an estimated pressure of 906 mb.

[LarryWx]

Per Brad P live feed, Santa Cruz is now flooding. Also, large portions of many towns (homes and cars) are now being swept away by extreme flash flooding coming off the mountains. The way he is talking it sounds catastrophic. One town he mentioned is Mandeville.

And now Jeff P. is witnessing a flooding catastrophe in Santa Cruz in his live feed:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tvgnO_BDGcs

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Here is the historic list that Melissa has joined.

https://i.imgur.com/3JM0cW8.jpeg

This means at some point, I need to make some art/writing/comic where Labor Day and Melissa fight

[aspen]

Chances of 190mph and sub-890mb on post-analysis?

190 mph (165 kt) has some support with the 170+ kt FL winds (not even in the typically strongest quadrant) and the 172 kt dropsonde reading. Melissa’s FL winds were likely translating very well to the surface, though out of caution I wouldn’t go with 170 kt unless either further analysis of this morning’s recon data or any surviving ground-based observations say otherwise.

The 893/13 drop from AF303 potentially supports 891mb. I could see the NHC revising its lowest pressure to 890-891mb, again also depending on what ground-based data we get.

[mempho]

We just vacationed at Rose Hall Jamaica back in June. Now, they are about to get the eye. This is just terrible.

[Hurricane Mike]

3pm Video Update on Hurricane Melissa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viSXsGNd0N8

[CrazyC83]

This is UNOFFICIAL, but here is how I would place the BT as of now.

AL132025, MELISSA, xx,
20251020, 1200, , LO, 13.5N, 66.5W, 30, 1008,
20251020, 1800, , LO, 13.7N, 67.7W, 35, 1006,
20251021, 0000, , LO, 13.9N, 68.9W, 35, 1005,
20251021, 0600, , LO, 14.1N, 70.1W, 40, 1004,
20251021, 1200, , LO, 14.1N, 71.3W, 40, 1003,
20251021, 1800, , LO, 14.1N, 72.5W, 40, 1002,
20251022, 0000, , TS, 14.1N, 73.2W, 45, 1002,
20251022, 0600, , TS, 14.2N, 73.4W, 45, 1001,
20251022, 1200, , TS, 14.3N, 73.6W, 45, 1000,
20251022, 1800, , TS, 14.4N, 73.9W, 40, 1002,
20251023, 0000, , TS, 14.6N, 74.3W, 40, 1004,
20251023, 0600, , TS, 14.8N, 74.6W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1200, , TS, 15.2N, 75.0W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1800, , TS, 15.5N, 75.3W, 40, 1002,
20251024, 0000, , TS, 15.7N, 75.6W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 0600, , TS, 16.0N, 75.3W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 1200, , TS, 15.8N, 74.9W, 45, 1000,
20251024, 1800, , TS, 15.8N, 74.5W, 50, 996,
20251025, 0000, , TS, 16.1N, 74.7W, 55, 993,
20251025, 0600, , TS, 16.3N, 74.9W, 60, 986,
20251025, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 75.1W, 65, 983,
20251025, 1800, , HU, 16.5N, 75.3W, 70, 977,
20251026, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 75.7W, 85, 970,
20251026, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 76.0W, 100, 957,
20251026, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 76.4W, 110, 952,
20251026, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 76.9W, 120, 944,
20251027, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 77.3W, 130, 932,
20251027, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 77.7W, 135, 922,
20251027, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 78.0W, 145, 913,
20251027, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 78.3W, 155, 906,
20251028, 0000, , HU, 16.5N, 78.6W, 155, 905,
20251028, 0600, , HU, 16.9N, 78.4W, 155, 900,
20251028, 1200, , HU, 17.5N, 78.1W, 165, 894,
20251028, 1400, I, HU, 17.9N, 78.0W, 170, 892,
20251028, 1700, L, HU, 18.1N, 78.0W, 160, 897,
20251028, 1800, , HU, 18.2N, 77.9W, 140, 910,

Much more will come as the rest of the lifespan unfolds, but the rationale for the peak intensity is a blend of the 179 kt FL winds (which translate to 161 kt at the surface) with limited observations (hence a higher intensity seems reasonable), the 172 kt dropsonde and the T8.0 Dvorak reading at the time, plus the continued pressure drop. The peak likely occurred at 1400Z. 175 kt was also considered using the dropsonde at face value, but I took a look back at the fixes to get to that.

Also, the 892 mb pressure is analyzed as the absolute low, based on the 893 mb about 30 minutes later, and slight filling before landfall due to the slight CDO warming.

[Exalt]

This is UNOFFICIAL, but here is how I would place the BT as of now.

AL132025, MELISSA, xx,
20251020, 1200, , LO, 13.5N, 66.5W, 30, 1008,
20251020, 1800, , LO, 13.7N, 67.7W, 35, 1006,
20251021, 0000, , LO, 13.9N, 68.9W, 35, 1005,
20251021, 0600, , LO, 14.1N, 70.1W, 40, 1004,
20251021, 1200, , LO, 14.1N, 71.3W, 40, 1003,
20251021, 1800, , LO, 14.1N, 72.5W, 40, 1002,
20251022, 0000, , TS, 14.1N, 73.2W, 45, 1002,
20251022, 0600, , TS, 14.2N, 73.4W, 45, 1001,
20251022, 1200, , TS, 14.3N, 73.6W, 45, 1000,
20251022, 1800, , TS, 14.4N, 73.9W, 40, 1002,
20251023, 0000, , TS, 14.6N, 74.3W, 40, 1004,
20251023, 0600, , TS, 14.8N, 74.6W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1200, , TS, 15.2N, 75.0W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1800, , TS, 15.5N, 75.3W, 40, 1002,
20251024, 0000, , TS, 15.7N, 75.6W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 0600, , TS, 16.0N, 75.3W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 1200, , TS, 15.8N, 74.9W, 45, 1000,
20251024, 1800, , TS, 15.8N, 74.5W, 50, 996,
20251025, 0000, , TS, 16.1N, 74.7W, 55, 993,
20251025, 0600, , TS, 16.3N, 74.9W, 60, 986,
20251025, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 75.1W, 65, 983,
20251025, 1800, , HU, 16.5N, 75.3W, 70, 977,
20251026, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 75.7W, 85, 970,
20251026, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 76.0W, 100, 957,
20251026, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 76.4W, 110, 952,
20251026, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 76.9W, 120, 944,
20251027, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 77.3W, 130, 932,
20251027, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 77.7W, 135, 922,
20251027, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 78.0W, 145, 913,
20251027, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 78.3W, 155, 906,
20251028, 0000, , HU, 16.5N, 78.6W, 155, 905,
20251028, 0600, , HU, 16.9N, 78.4W, 155, 900,
20251028, 1200, , HU, 17.5N, 78.1W, 165, 894,
20251028, 1400, I, HU, 17.9N, 78.0W, 170, 892,
20251028, 1700, L, HU, 18.1N, 78.0W, 160, 897,
20251028, 1800, , HU, 18.2N, 77.9W, 140, 910,

Much more will come as the rest of the lifespan unfolds, but the rationale for the peak intensity is a blend of the 179 kt FL winds (which translate to 161 kt at the surface) with limited observations (hence a higher intensity seems reasonable), the 172 kt dropsonde and the T8.0 Dvorak reading at the time, plus the continued pressure drop. The peak likely occurred at 1400Z. 175 kt was also considered using the dropsonde at face value, but I took a look back at the fixes to get to that.

Also, the 892 mb pressure is analyzed as the absolute low, based on the 893 mb about 30 minutes later, and slight filling before landfall due to the slight CDO warming.

Is there anything to make of the T8.5 estimate from not too long before?

[CrazyC83]

This is UNOFFICIAL, but here is how I would place the BT as of now.

AL132025, MELISSA, xx,
20251020, 1200, , LO, 13.5N, 66.5W, 30, 1008,
20251020, 1800, , LO, 13.7N, 67.7W, 35, 1006,
20251021, 0000, , LO, 13.9N, 68.9W, 35, 1005,
20251021, 0600, , LO, 14.1N, 70.1W, 40, 1004,
20251021, 1200, , LO, 14.1N, 71.3W, 40, 1003,
20251021, 1800, , LO, 14.1N, 72.5W, 40, 1002,
20251022, 0000, , TS, 14.1N, 73.2W, 45, 1002,
20251022, 0600, , TS, 14.2N, 73.4W, 45, 1001,
20251022, 1200, , TS, 14.3N, 73.6W, 45, 1000,
20251022, 1800, , TS, 14.4N, 73.9W, 40, 1002,
20251023, 0000, , TS, 14.6N, 74.3W, 40, 1004,
20251023, 0600, , TS, 14.8N, 74.6W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1200, , TS, 15.2N, 75.0W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1800, , TS, 15.5N, 75.3W, 40, 1002,
20251024, 0000, , TS, 15.7N, 75.6W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 0600, , TS, 16.0N, 75.3W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 1200, , TS, 15.8N, 74.9W, 45, 1000,
20251024, 1800, , TS, 15.8N, 74.5W, 50, 996,
20251025, 0000, , TS, 16.1N, 74.7W, 55, 993,
20251025, 0600, , TS, 16.3N, 74.9W, 60, 986,
20251025, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 75.1W, 65, 983,
20251025, 1800, , HU, 16.5N, 75.3W, 70, 977,
20251026, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 75.7W, 85, 970,
20251026, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 76.0W, 100, 957,
20251026, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 76.4W, 110, 952,
20251026, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 76.9W, 120, 944,
20251027, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 77.3W, 130, 932,
20251027, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 77.7W, 135, 922,
20251027, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 78.0W, 145, 913,
20251027, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 78.3W, 155, 906,
20251028, 0000, , HU, 16.5N, 78.6W, 155, 905,
20251028, 0600, , HU, 16.9N, 78.4W, 155, 900,
20251028, 1200, , HU, 17.5N, 78.1W, 165, 894,
20251028, 1400, I, HU, 17.9N, 78.0W, 170, 892,
20251028, 1700, L, HU, 18.1N, 78.0W, 160, 897,
20251028, 1800, , HU, 18.2N, 77.9W, 140, 910,

Much more will come as the rest of the lifespan unfolds, but the rationale for the peak intensity is a blend of the 179 kt FL winds (which translate to 161 kt at the surface) with limited observations (hence a higher intensity seems reasonable), the 172 kt dropsonde and the T8.0 Dvorak reading at the time, plus the continued pressure drop. The peak likely occurred at 1400Z. 175 kt was also considered using the dropsonde at face value, but I took a look back at the fixes to get to that.

Also, the 892 mb pressure is analyzed as the absolute low, based on the 893 mb about 30 minutes later, and slight filling before landfall due to the slight CDO warming.

Is there anything to make of the T8.5 estimate from not too long before?

That was the ADT which was running a little hot.

[SteveM]

She looks a mess now on IR, hopefully good news for Cuba.

[IsabelaWeather]

She looks a mess now on IR, hopefully good news for Cuba.

Not to me, the eye was always going to close up, the question is if the circulation got disrupted. If it didnt then the eye will open again quickly.

[Ed_2001]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMBPM0KYLgo

Montego Bay probably entered the inner eyewall around 30 minutes ago. Full on whiteout and winds looks well in excess of 100 mph.

To think, it's still this intense after already traversing 20+ miles of relatively mountainous land...

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JamaicaGleaner/status/1983242701425266924