NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

NOAA2 crossing over Cuba now

[aspen]

It should be noted that while Melissa's landfall intensity
is among the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin,
it will take extensive post-analysis to determine exactly
where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic hurricanes.

Too late, the relevant Wikipedia lists have already been adjusted.
In all seriousness, I hope someone somewhere got a pressure reading in the eye.

I think Josh getting a reading on the eastern eyewall should be enough. We can then use the pressure gradient from recon just a few hours prior to work backwards and find the central pressure at landfall with whatever Josh got.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Amazes me when storms IMMEDIATELY cross back over water, they begin to show signs of life again.

[GCANE]

Got to hand it to Lockheed.
They build planes that take a beating and keep on ticking.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/ameliaUrquhart_/status/1983278839196463130


 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1983279425220411679

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/accuweather/status/1983275871827034551

[syfr]

Still looks in good shape.

It'll be interesting to see what the data shows it to be in the next recon pass.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I dunno. 355K PV is still in the clear over a wide area.
Still has the setup for upshear vortex precession.
Over very warm and deep water.

Has all the necessary components except for time.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

they should have stayed until landfall.

Easy there, hotshot. Those g-force limits are for their safety.

[Nimbus]

38 with 58 at the airport now

28 05:00 E 38 G 54 0.00 Heavy Rain and Windy BKN010 OVC045 77 75.2 94% 78 0 0.0

Then that anemometer is collecting faulty or outdated data. I mean just check out the video tweet to your top.

Timestamp 05:00 local? That was 9 hours ago!

Montego Bay, Saint James, Jamaica Weather Conditions just updated 87 mph from the NW

[Sanibel]

Correction: Eye exited Salt Marsh, Jamaica...

Hard eyewall probably exited over Falmouth, Jamaica on its way back over water...

[Hurrilurker]

It's a mess (and disaster) but honestly it could have been a lot worse. If it was going to hit Jamaica, that looks like about the best possible path it could have taken for minimal population impacts.

[StormWeather]

Anyone know what happened to Mission 26? They did a U-turn and went back to the island they took off from.

[TomballEd]

Got to hand it to Lockheed.
They build planes that take a beating and keep on ticking.

They get overhauled every few years and are out of service for the better part of a year (I saw something on Discovery) but the planes are 50 years old. The Navy is phasing out the last of the Orion subhunters in favor the P8 Poseidon (both the Orion and Poseidon are modified civilian aircraft, the Lockheed Electra and the B-737)). NOAA is going to have to start training its own Orion pilots with the Navy retiring the plane.

The WC-130J just looks sturdier to me.

[dukeblue219]

It's a mess (and disaster) but honestly it could have been a lot worse. If it was going to hit Jamaica, that looks like about the best possible path it could have taken for minimal population impacts.

It's really hard to tell the day-of, though. Katrina felt the same way - "it's weakening," "it missed New Orleans to the East," "the levees appear to be holding," etc.

[GCANE]

Got to hand it to Lockheed.
They build planes that take a beating and keep on ticking.

They get overhauled every few years and are out of service for the better part of a year (I saw something on Discovery) but the planes are 50 years old. The Navy is phasing out the last of the Orion subhunters in favor the P8 Poseidon (both the Orion and Poseidon are modified civilian aircraft, the Lockheed Electra and the B-737)). NOAA is going to have to start training its own Orion pilots with the Navy retiring the plane.

The WC-130J just looks sturdier to me.

C130 is awesome. I was a Flight Test Engineer for Lockheed in my earlier years. Flew on the X130 many times and did many crazy things. X130 was a modified C130 designed for VSTOL. Flew tree top levels in the Smokies and did sonobuoy drops at Pax River. Luckily I got out just before it crashed and burned in Marietta,

[Teban54]

It's a mess (and disaster) but honestly it could have been a lot worse. If it was going to hit Jamaica, that looks like about the best possible path it could have taken for minimal population impacts.

It's really hard to tell the day-of, though. Katrina felt the same way - "it's weakening," "it missed New Orleans to the East," "the levees appear to be holding," etc.

Same for Helene. Initial comments after the landfall focused on the Big Bend area itself, which, despite enduring a Cat 4 landfall, was seen as "good luck" by FL landfall standards due to lower population. Even the surge in the Tampa Bay area only caught attention a few hours later. The flooding and destruction much further inland, which eventually became the most well-known impacts of Helene, only started dominating the discussions a day or so after landfall.

As for Melissa, inland flooding already seems to be a theme, even in areas far from the eyewall.

[Kazmit]

Didn’t have time to post these earlier. Peak intensity/landfall.

[Teban54]

Landfall, weakening, and (possible) recovery:

[GCANE]

What happened to AF301?