NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2681 Postby got ants? » Tue Oct 28, 2025 3:43 pm


Wow! Prayers incoming!!
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2682 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 28, 2025 3:46 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Steve wrote:
SteveM wrote:She looks a mess now on IR, hopefully good news for Cuba.


That's not a mess you're looking at.


If the inner core is intact, it won't take long to get a chance to recharge. We saw that with Maria after Dominica.

Fortunately, Jamaica theoretically should’ve caused much more damage to Melissa’s structure than Dominica did to Maria, and it’ll have much less time over water before its next landfall. So in theory it shouldn’t recover much…hopefully.

NOAA2 is in the air and on its way to see what’s left under the hood.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2683 Postby Pelicane » Tue Oct 28, 2025 3:47 pm

Looks like it's about to hit the water again. Curious when recon will be able to sample it.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2684 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 28, 2025 3:49 pm

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NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2685 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 28, 2025 3:55 pm

Re-emerging...

Exited Jamaica near Northern Estates...
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2686 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 28, 2025 3:56 pm

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2687 Postby zzzh » Tue Oct 28, 2025 3:56 pm

It should be noted that while Melissa's landfall intensity
is among the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin,
it will take extensive post-analysis to determine exactly
where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic hurricanes.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2688 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:00 pm

Sanibel wrote:Re-emerging...

Exited Jamaica near Northern Estates...


Highly, highly uncertain NHC estimate of a 125 kt intensity. We'll know the true intensity in a few hours.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2689 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:02 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Steve wrote:
SteveM wrote:She looks a mess now on IR, hopefully good news for Cuba.


That's not a mess you're looking at.


If the inner core is intact, it won't take long to get a chance to recharge. We saw that with Maria after Dominica.

It’s wasting no time, the core is already coming back to life.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2690 Postby ljmac75 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:02 pm

zzzh wrote:
It should be noted that while Melissa's landfall intensity
is among the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin,
it will take extensive post-analysis to determine exactly
where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic hurricanes.


Too late, the relevant Wikipedia lists have already been adjusted.
In all seriousness, I hope someone somewhere got a pressure reading in the eye.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2691 Postby Teban54 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:03 pm

Just as Melissa emerged over water again:

Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2692 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:09 pm

I dunno. 355K PV is still in the clear over a wide area.
Still has the setup for upshear vortex precession.
Over very warm and deep water.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2693 Postby dukeblue219 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:11 pm

NOAA2 crossing over Cuba now
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2694 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:12 pm

ljmac75 wrote:
zzzh wrote:
It should be noted that while Melissa's landfall intensity
is among the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin,
it will take extensive post-analysis to determine exactly
where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic hurricanes.

Too late, the relevant Wikipedia lists have already been adjusted.
In all seriousness, I hope someone somewhere got a pressure reading in the eye.

I think Josh getting a reading on the eastern eyewall should be enough. We can then use the pressure gradient from recon just a few hours prior to work backwards and find the central pressure at landfall with whatever Josh got.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2695 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:12 pm

Amazes me when storms IMMEDIATELY cross back over water, they begin to show signs of life again.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2696 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:17 pm

Got to hand it to Lockheed.
They build planes that take a beating and keep on ticking.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2697 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:18 pm

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2698 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:20 pm

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2699 Postby syfr » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:22 pm

Still looks in good shape.

It'll be interesting to see what the data shows it to be in the next recon pass.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2700 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Tue Oct 28, 2025 4:25 pm

GCANE wrote:I dunno. 355K PV is still in the clear over a wide area.
Still has the setup for upshear vortex precession.
Over very warm and deep water.

Has all the necessary components except for time.
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