NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[mrbagyo]

The most similarly sized typhoon (sort of) that i can remember with recon verified pressure that I can compare to Melissa was Typhoon Betty of 1987 (my avatar) - pressure of 891 hPa at peak with MSW of 140 knots (operational) but its max intensity was reanalysed by Dr. John Knaff to 174 knots

[Woofde]

Pressure is way up after landfall. The gradient is still intact however.

[GCANE]

Warm spot developing on IR

[Teban54]

NOAA is back into Melissa and has an extrap pressure of 952.8 mb. The NW quad only has 65 kt FL, but looks like it will sample the NE quad next.

[Kazmit]

???

[aspen]

NOAA is back into Melissa and has an extrap pressure of 952.8 mb. The NW quad only has 65 kt FL, but looks like it will sample the NE quad next.

I don’t think this is even a major anymore. Wonder what the NHC will do at 8pm.

[GCANE]

Crazy how the eye is coming back in no time

[cheezyWXguy]

NOAA is back into Melissa and has an extrap pressure of 952.8 mb. The NW quad only has 65 kt FL, but looks like it will sample the NE quad next.

It’s not often we get real time recon obs from a storm that’s in such an optimal position to put itself back together. It’ll be interesting to see what the wind field looks like with each pass

[CrazyC83]

NOAA is back into Melissa and has an extrap pressure of 952.8 mb. The NW quad only has 65 kt FL, but looks like it will sample the NE quad next.

I don’t think this is even a major anymore. Wonder what the NHC will do at 8pm.

These winds are at 13,000 feet (due to the mountains nearby) which is too high to assess the winds. As a result, we aren't going to get good wind data from this plane except in dropsondes, assuming they don't land on solid ground.

[WaveBreaking]

VHTs already firing in the eye in mesoscale imagery

[MarioProtVI]

Good news for Cuba but man the core got destroyed. We’re gonna be getting Erin post-ERC ratios now aren’t we. Also cuts down on the remaining ACE forecasted so it doesn’t seem like Melissa will beat Erin in terms of ACE as I don’t think it’ll regain major, and in fact the mountains of Cuba probably screw with it to the point it comes out the other side a sloppy Cat 1 or low-end 2, not the major NHC currently has tracking through there.

[Sciencerocks]

NOAA is back into Melissa and has an extrap pressure of 952.8 mb. The NW quad only has 65 kt FL, but looks like it will sample the NE quad next.

I don’t think this is even a major anymore. Wonder what the NHC will do at 8pm.

Jamaica hurt this storm bad. Such a powerful storm has all its power within a fragile eyewall and when it takes a hit like this it has a hard time.

Looks like it is around 952-953 mbs or 60 mbs higher then it made landfall at.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 95 kt for the intensity and a pressure of 950 mb. The eye likely is a bit south of the turn point and emerged in the last 30 minutes so it's barely off the beach.

[mrbagyo]

It's trying to wrap the eye again

[Woofde]

NOAA is back into Melissa and has an extrap pressure of 952.8 mb. The NW quad only has 65 kt FL, but looks like it will sample the NE quad next.

It'll probably be a case where the pressure continues to increase for 6 - 12 hours until winds recover and it begins sucking ocean warmth from the surface again. The core structure didn't fall apart though.

[rwfromkansas]

they should have stayed until landfall.

Easy there, hotshot. Those g-force limits are for their safety.

Oh good point, I forgot they had to leave for safety reasons.

[Teban54]

I didn't see the high altitude of the plane earlier when reporting FL winds. Sorry if that misled anyone.

This drop is from the weaker NW eyewall, which still seems to show relatively good mixing down to the surface (as well as high FL/surface ratios).

[JBCycloneStan]

Good news for Cuba but man the core got destroyed. We’re gonna be getting Erin post-ERC ratios now aren’t we. Also cuts down on the remaining ACE forecasted so it doesn’t seem like Melissa will beat Erin in terms of ACE as I don’t think it’ll regain major, and in fact the mountains of Cuba probably screw with it to the point it comes out the other side a sloppy Cat 1 or low-end 2, not the major NHC currently has tracking through there.

The core was not destroyed?? lol. It’s looking to regain eye structure on IR imminently

[AJC3]

What happened to AF301?

Bird strike on takeoff. Immediately returned to base.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Landfall, weakening, and (possible) recovery:
https://i.imgur.com/CfuLpxo.gif

Wow they really hate land