NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

they should have stayed until landfall.

Easy there, hotshot. Those g-force limits are for their safety.

[Nimbus]

38 with 58 at the airport now

28 05:00 E 38 G 54 0.00 Heavy Rain and Windy BKN010 OVC045 77 75.2 94% 78 0 0.0

Then that anemometer is collecting faulty or outdated data. I mean just check out the video tweet to your top.

Timestamp 05:00 local? That was 9 hours ago!

Montego Bay, Saint James, Jamaica Weather Conditions just updated 87 mph from the NW

[Sanibel]

Correction: Eye exited Salt Marsh, Jamaica...

Hard eyewall probably exited over Falmouth, Jamaica on its way back over water...

[Hurrilurker]

It's a mess (and disaster) but honestly it could have been a lot worse. If it was going to hit Jamaica, that looks like about the best possible path it could have taken for minimal population impacts.

[StormWeather]

Anyone know what happened to Mission 26? They did a U-turn and went back to the island they took off from.

[TomballEd]

Got to hand it to Lockheed.
They build planes that take a beating and keep on ticking.

They get overhauled every few years and are out of service for the better part of a year (I saw something on Discovery) but the planes are 50 years old. The Navy is phasing out the last of the Orion subhunters in favor the P8 Poseidon (both the Orion and Poseidon are modified civilian aircraft, the Lockheed Electra and the B-737)). NOAA is going to have to start training its own Orion pilots with the Navy retiring the plane.

The WC-130J just looks sturdier to me.

[dukeblue219]

It's a mess (and disaster) but honestly it could have been a lot worse. If it was going to hit Jamaica, that looks like about the best possible path it could have taken for minimal population impacts.

It's really hard to tell the day-of, though. Katrina felt the same way - "it's weakening," "it missed New Orleans to the East," "the levees appear to be holding," etc.

[GCANE]

Got to hand it to Lockheed.
They build planes that take a beating and keep on ticking.

They get overhauled every few years and are out of service for the better part of a year (I saw something on Discovery) but the planes are 50 years old. The Navy is phasing out the last of the Orion subhunters in favor the P8 Poseidon (both the Orion and Poseidon are modified civilian aircraft, the Lockheed Electra and the B-737)). NOAA is going to have to start training its own Orion pilots with the Navy retiring the plane.

The WC-130J just looks sturdier to me.

C130 is awesome. I was a Flight Test Engineer for Lockheed in my earlier years. Flew on the X130 many times and did many crazy things. X130 was a modified C130 designed for VSTOL. Flew tree top levels in the Smokies and did sonobuoy drops at Pax River. Luckily I got out just before it crashed and burned in Marietta,

[Teban54]

It's a mess (and disaster) but honestly it could have been a lot worse. If it was going to hit Jamaica, that looks like about the best possible path it could have taken for minimal population impacts.

It's really hard to tell the day-of, though. Katrina felt the same way - "it's weakening," "it missed New Orleans to the East," "the levees appear to be holding," etc.

Same for Helene. Initial comments after the landfall focused on the Big Bend area itself, which, despite enduring a Cat 4 landfall, was seen as "good luck" by FL landfall standards due to lower population. Even the surge in the Tampa Bay area only caught attention a few hours later. The flooding and destruction much further inland, which eventually became the most well-known impacts of Helene, only started dominating the discussions a day or so after landfall.

As for Melissa, inland flooding already seems to be a theme, even in areas far from the eyewall.

[Kazmit]

Didn’t have time to post these earlier. Peak intensity/landfall.

[Teban54]

Landfall, weakening, and (possible) recovery:

[GCANE]

What happened to AF301?

[mrbagyo]

The most similarly sized typhoon (sort of) that i can remember with recon verified pressure that I can compare to Melissa was Typhoon Betty of 1987 (my avatar) - pressure of 891 hPa at peak with MSW of 140 knots (operational) but its max intensity was reanalysed by Dr. John Knaff to 174 knots

[Woofde]

Pressure is way up after landfall. The gradient is still intact however.

[GCANE]

Warm spot developing on IR

[Teban54]

NOAA is back into Melissa and has an extrap pressure of 952.8 mb. The NW quad only has 65 kt FL, but looks like it will sample the NE quad next.

[Kazmit]

???

[aspen]

NOAA is back into Melissa and has an extrap pressure of 952.8 mb. The NW quad only has 65 kt FL, but looks like it will sample the NE quad next.

I don’t think this is even a major anymore. Wonder what the NHC will do at 8pm.

[GCANE]

Crazy how the eye is coming back in no time

[cheezyWXguy]

NOAA is back into Melissa and has an extrap pressure of 952.8 mb. The NW quad only has 65 kt FL, but looks like it will sample the NE quad next.

It’s not often we get real time recon obs from a storm that’s in such an optimal position to put itself back together. It’ll be interesting to see what the wind field looks like with each pass