NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[CrazyC83]

NOAA is back into Melissa and has an extrap pressure of 952.8 mb. The NW quad only has 65 kt FL, but looks like it will sample the NE quad next.

I don’t think this is even a major anymore. Wonder what the NHC will do at 8pm.

These winds are at 13,000 feet (due to the mountains nearby) which is too high to assess the winds. As a result, we aren't going to get good wind data from this plane except in dropsondes, assuming they don't land on solid ground.

[WaveBreaking]

VHTs already firing in the eye in mesoscale imagery

[MarioProtVI]

Good news for Cuba but man the core got destroyed. We’re gonna be getting Erin post-ERC ratios now aren’t we. Also cuts down on the remaining ACE forecasted so it doesn’t seem like Melissa will beat Erin in terms of ACE as I don’t think it’ll regain major, and in fact the mountains of Cuba probably screw with it to the point it comes out the other side a sloppy Cat 1 or low-end 2, not the major NHC currently has tracking through there.

[Sciencerocks]

NOAA is back into Melissa and has an extrap pressure of 952.8 mb. The NW quad only has 65 kt FL, but looks like it will sample the NE quad next.

I don’t think this is even a major anymore. Wonder what the NHC will do at 8pm.

Jamaica hurt this storm bad. Such a powerful storm has all its power within a fragile eyewall and when it takes a hit like this it has a hard time.

Looks like it is around 952-953 mbs or 60 mbs higher then it made landfall at.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 95 kt for the intensity and a pressure of 950 mb. The eye likely is a bit south of the turn point and emerged in the last 30 minutes so it's barely off the beach.

[mrbagyo]

It's trying to wrap the eye again

[Woofde]

NOAA is back into Melissa and has an extrap pressure of 952.8 mb. The NW quad only has 65 kt FL, but looks like it will sample the NE quad next.

It'll probably be a case where the pressure continues to increase for 6 - 12 hours until winds recover and it begins sucking ocean warmth from the surface again. The core structure didn't fall apart though.

[rwfromkansas]

they should have stayed until landfall.

Easy there, hotshot. Those g-force limits are for their safety.

Oh good point, I forgot they had to leave for safety reasons.

[Teban54]

I didn't see the high altitude of the plane earlier when reporting FL winds. Sorry if that misled anyone.

This drop is from the weaker NW eyewall, which still seems to show relatively good mixing down to the surface (as well as high FL/surface ratios).

[JBCycloneStan]

Good news for Cuba but man the core got destroyed. We’re gonna be getting Erin post-ERC ratios now aren’t we. Also cuts down on the remaining ACE forecasted so it doesn’t seem like Melissa will beat Erin in terms of ACE as I don’t think it’ll regain major, and in fact the mountains of Cuba probably screw with it to the point it comes out the other side a sloppy Cat 1 or low-end 2, not the major NHC currently has tracking through there.

The core was not destroyed?? lol. It’s looking to regain eye structure on IR imminently

[AJC3]

What happened to AF301?

Bird strike on takeoff. Immediately returned to base.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Landfall, weakening, and (possible) recovery:
https://i.imgur.com/CfuLpxo.gif

Wow they really hate land

[CrazyC83]

The easiest hint to see if it is strengthening is if the pressure drops between passes. Until they drop to 10,000 feet, the P-W relationship and dropsondes are the best indicators.

[Teban54]

I didn't see the high altitude of the plane earlier when reporting FL winds. Sorry if that misled anyone.

This drop is from the weaker NW eyewall, which still seems to show relatively good mixing down to the surface (as well as high FL/surface ratios).

https://i.postimg.cc/XYXN4c3k/MELISSA-NOAA2-2513A-dropsonde-202510282207.png

Here's the NE eyewall. While definitely not a major anymore, it probably doesn't change anything I said above fundamentally.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I am not surprised to see Melissa is probably a Category 3 now. Jamaica is pretty mountainous and Melissa wasn't exactly trucking it. If there's any silver lining to the horror that just got unleashed today, it's that Cuba probably isn't facing a Category 5 (hopefully not).

[AJC3]

Anyone know what happened to Mission 26? They did a U-turn and went back to the island they took off from.

Bird strike on takeoff.

[Nimbus]

I didn't see the high altitude of the plane earlier when reporting FL winds. Sorry if that misled anyone.

This drop is from the weaker NW eyewall, which still seems to show relatively good mixing down to the surface (as well as high FL/surface ratios).

https://i.postimg.cc/XYXN4c3k/MELISSA-NOAA2-2513A-dropsonde-202510282207.png

Here's the NE eyewall. While definitely not a major anymore, it probably doesn't change anything I said above fundamentally.

https://i.postimg.cc/k5dHfqjc/MELISSA-NOAA2-2513A-dropsonde-202510282214.png

Gusts to 60 knots currently being reported for Montego bay so this sounds reasonable.
They can't work on restoring the power lines till the wind subsides.

Cuba may luck out if we can get a little dry air entrained before landfall.

[syfr]

The level of intensity that Jamaica took from Melissa is surprising. Are "perfect" storms like Melissa, particularly vulnerable to severe attenuation , in comparison to your normal run of the mill big blob Cat III or the like?

[Teban54]

[AJC3]

The level of intensity that Jamaica took from Melissa is surprising. Are "perfect" storms like Melissa, particularly vulnerable to severe attenuation , in comparison to your normal run of the mill big blob Cat III or the like?

In spite of its strength and intensity landfall, I think the Melissa's relatively small RMW made it more easily disrupted by the high terrain of Jamaica (even though the higher peaks are on the central-east part of the island).