Texas Fall 2025

[Ntxw]

Yep Euro is trending 30s now everywhere and freeze basically rural and Red River areas northward towards the conglomerate. Frost/freezes north of I-10, outside the immediate urban areas which should be in the 30s.

While not overly impressive, where it came from (Arctic) should've been telling. Models were too warm with it a week ago around this time.







Current GFS.

[wxman22]

The NAM

[Brent]

Crazy to see 20s and back near 80 in the forecast

I think we need a snow pack up north to really flip the pattern more than a couple days

[Stratton23]

Brent we will in the coming weeks, it is still early in november and we usually dont have a huge snow pack across the US just yet though its starting to expand south somewhat, the fact that we could see potential freezing low temperatures all the way down to SE texas behind this front for early November when we dont have a widespread established snowpack yet is pretty impressive

[Brent]

Brent we will in the coming weeks, it is still early in november and we usually dont have a huge snow pack across the US just yet though its starting to expand south somewhat, the fact that we could see potential freezing low temperatures all the way down to SE texas behind this front for early November when we dont have a widespread established snowpack yet is pretty impressive

Apparently it's super late for Denver to not have snow yet but I get your point the weekend cold snap is pretty impressive despite that but really going back to 80 after is rough

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Brent we will in the coming weeks, it is still early in november and we usually dont have a huge snow pack across the US just yet though its starting to expand south somewhat, the fact that we could see potential freezing low temperatures all the way down to SE texas behind this front for early November when we dont have a widespread established snowpack yet is pretty impressive

Apparently it's super late for Denver to not have snow yet but I get your point the weekend cold snap is pretty impressive despite that but really going back to 80 after is rough

Avg snowfall is Oct 18th here in Denver. It's not looking good till maybe Thanksgiving. We need help from the MJO. Currently, we are having days in the mid-60's for the last 3 weeks. Bright sunshine and warm for the last month.
This reminds me very much of 2021, my first winter here, we had a little snow the night before Thanksgiving. Then on New years Eve we got dumped on. Then, every 5 days until April, we had snow. So i think we will catch up eventually. I anticipate the 5H will shift more and more to the west and direct the jet stream into a much more favorable path for us.

[Brent]

Brent we will in the coming weeks, it is still early in november and we usually dont have a huge snow pack across the US just yet though its starting to expand south somewhat, the fact that we could see potential freezing low temperatures all the way down to SE texas behind this front for early November when we dont have a widespread established snowpack yet is pretty impressive

Apparently it's super late for Denver to not have snow yet but I get your point the weekend cold snap is pretty impressive despite that but really going back to 80 after is rough

Avg snowfall is Oct 18th here in Denver. It's not looking good till maybe Thanksgiving. We need help from the MJO. Currently, we are having days in the mid-60's for the last 3 weeks. Bright sunshine and warm for the last month.
This reminds me very much of 2021, my first winter here, we had a little snow the night before Thanksgiving. Then on New years Eve we got dumped on. Then, every 5 days until April, we had snow. So i think we will catch up eventually. I anticipate the 5H will shift more and more to the west and direct the jet stream into a much more favorable path for us.

I just remember being in Breckenridge last December 7th and it was like the middle of winter on snow pack I remember them saying

Hopefully things flip soon because I see no snow there

I mean I have heard a stormier pattern is coming once we warm back up

[Ntxw]

Apparently it's super late for Denver to not have snow yet but I get your point the weekend cold snap is pretty impressive despite that but really going back to 80 after is rough

Avg snowfall is Oct 18th here in Denver. It's not looking good till maybe Thanksgiving. We need help from the MJO. Currently, we are having days in the mid-60's for the last 3 weeks. Bright sunshine and warm for the last month.
This reminds me very much of 2021, my first winter here, we had a little snow the night before Thanksgiving. Then on New years Eve we got dumped on. Then, every 5 days until April, we had snow. So i think we will catch up eventually. I anticipate the 5H will shift more and more to the west and direct the jet stream into a much more favorable path for us.

I just remember being in Breckenridge last December 7th and it was like the middle of winter on snow pack I remember them saying

Hopefully things flip soon because I see no snow there

I think the PDO is about to shift, and the Atlantic side blocking was there last year and probably some this year. For Denver and the front range that eastern trough is a dry-ish one. Need a big -RNA which I think peaked a few years ago. I think it will be a good winter for the mid-section of the country including Denver but will be a slow start due to the blocking.

Big ridges on and off this winter in the intermountain west at times due to the NAO/+PNA tendencies.

[lukem]

Avg snowfall is Oct 18th here in Denver. It's not looking good till maybe Thanksgiving. We need help from the MJO. Currently, we are having days in the mid-60's for the last 3 weeks. Bright sunshine and warm for the last month.
This reminds me very much of 2021, my first winter here, we had a little snow the night before Thanksgiving. Then on New years Eve we got dumped on. Then, every 5 days until April, we had snow. So i think we will catch up eventually. I anticipate the 5H will shift more and more to the west and direct the jet stream into a much more favorable path for us.

I just remember being in Breckenridge last December 7th and it was like the middle of winter on snow pack I remember them saying

Hopefully things flip soon because I see no snow there

I think the PDO is about to shift, and the Atlantic side blocking was there last year and probably some this year. For Denver and the front range that eastern trough is a dry-ish one. Need a big -RNA which I think peaked a few years ago. I think it will be a good winter for the mid-section of the country including Denver but will be a slow start due to the blocking.

Big ridges on and off this winter in the intermountain west at times due to the NAO/+PNA tendencies.

Do you think this will be a long-term shift into a new positive PDO era, or a temporary one like we saw in 2015?

[Ntxw]

I just remember being in Breckenridge last December 7th and it was like the middle of winter on snow pack I remember them saying

Hopefully things flip soon because I see no snow there

I think the PDO is about to shift, and the Atlantic side blocking was there last year and probably some this year. For Denver and the front range that eastern trough is a dry-ish one. Need a big -RNA which I think peaked a few years ago. I think it will be a good winter for the mid-section of the country including Denver but will be a slow start due to the blocking.

Big ridges on and off this winter in the intermountain west at times due to the NAO/+PNA tendencies.

Do you think this will be a long-term shift into a new positive PDO era, or a temporary one like we saw in 2015?

These things are hard to predict in terms of duration but the progression of the equatorial warm pool in the IO->WPAC indicates we will eventually see an El Nino of sorts soon, if not next year then probably the following. The PDO likely gears up for it alongside. Should it flip it will last some years, the previous one lasted 5-6 years.