Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
415 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 415 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

* There is a high chance of urban and small stream flooding today
across the interior into western Puerto Rico and again on Sunday
across eastern and southern areas, as moisture levels are
forecast to increase.

* Mostly fair weather is expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands
today, with a few brief passing showers.

* The risk of rip currents along the north-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands is expected to increase
late Thursday night into Friday as a northerly swell spreads
across the local waters.

* Heat indices are forecast to range from 100 to 105 degrees F,
posing potential health risks for individuals who are highly
sensitive to heat.

&&

.Short Term (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 415 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

Skies were mostly clear to partly cloudy across the local islands
during the overnight hours. Passing showers were observed over the
northern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as Vieques, Culebra, and the
northern U.S. Virgin Islands. However, rainfall amounts were minimal.
Temperatures ranged from the mid-70s to around 80 degrees F at lower
elevations, and from the mid- to upper-60s in higher terrain.

A mid-level ridge pattern will continue to dominate the region,
though a gradual weakening is expected as an upper-level trough
prevails south of the area. At the surface, a front north of the
area will dissipate while a high-pressure system moves into the
central Atlantic. This high will maintain an east-southeast wind
flow, advecting patches of moisture across the islands from time to
time. Nonetheless, precipitable water values should remain below 2.0
inches and largely confined below 850 mb.

Under this evolving pattern, a typical seasonal weather pattern will
prevail. Expect locally induced afternoon showers across western
Puerto Rico each day, while mainly fair weather conditions persist
elsewhere. Based on the latest guidance, today is likely to be the
wettest day of the period as a moisture patch moves across the area.
Therefore, the flooding risk is elevated today. Shower activity is
then expected to decrease significantly on Thursday and Friday under
a drier air mass.

In addition to the elevated flooding risk today across western
Puerto Rico, there will be a limited heat risk across the islands,
with heat indices ranging from 100 to 105 degrees F. The prevailing
east-southeast wind flow will support slightly above-normal
temperatures at the 925 mb level, particularly on Thursday and
Friday. These conditions mainly affect individuals who are highly
sensitive to heat, especially those spending extended periods
outdoors without proper cooling or hydration.

&&

.Long Term (Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 415 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

During the long term period, a surface high-pressure system over
the northern Atlantic is expected to gradually shift eastward. By
the end of the period, this high will generally be positioned over
the central to eastern Atlantic. This pattern will support winds
with an easterly component, becoming breezy from the weekend into
early next week as the pressure gradient tightens. A weak mid-
level ridge will persist north to northeast of the region.

The latest precipitable water (PWAT) guidance indicates values
fluctuating from below-normal to near-normal levels on Saturday,
ranging from around 1.5 to 1.7 inches. This setup will support a
typical weather pattern of quick-moving passing showers across the
windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during
the night and morning hours, followed by afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly across western and northwestern
Puerto Rico. These will be driven by diurnal heating, sea-breeze
convergence, and local terrain effects, resulting in a limited
flooding potential. Rain chances are expected to increase on
Sunday, along with a limited to elevated flooding risk, as a
tropical wave moves across the Caribbean waters. This feature will
raise the moisture content to around 2.00 to 2.25 inches of PWAT
(above normal based on climatological data) and enhance moisture
in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. The U.S. Virgin
Islands, as well as the eastern and southern areas of Puerto Rico,
are expected to experience the greatest likelihood of showers,
with winds shifting from northeast to southeast as the wave
passes.

Early next week, in the wake of the tropical wave, alternating
patches of moisture and drier air will continue to move across the
region under a southeasterly flow. A strengthening mid level
ridge will promote stability and drier air aloft. As a result, the
return of a typical weather pattern is expected: passing showers
across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands during the night and morning hours, followed by afternoon
showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across western Puerto
Rico. No significant impacts are anticipated.

Regarding temperatures, a none to limited heat risk is expected to
persist throughout the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 415 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites with -SHRA at JSJ/JBQ
early this morning. SHRA/TSRA may develop across W PR after 05/17Z,
possibly affecting JBQ and JPS through about 05/22z. ESE winds at 10-
15 kts and typical sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

A weak surface high pressure system over the central to eastern
Atlantic will maintain light to moderate easterly winds over the next
few days. Meanwhile, a surface low moving across the northwestern
Atlantic will generate a northerly swell, increasing seas to around 6
feet or higher across the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages
by late Thursday into Friday. Additionally, moderate to fresh easterly
winds are anticipated by next weekend, along with a better chance of
showers as a tropical wave moves across the Caribbean waters. Small
craft operators will likely need to exercise caution.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 415 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

Today, there is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern
and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra. Beachgoers should
exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents are possible
along the surf zones. A low risk prevails elsewhere.

By Thursday night into Friday, a weak northerly swell will begin
to affect the local Atlantic waters and northern coastlines. This
will lead to breaking waves around 5 to 6 feet, and the moderate
rip current risk will expand to include western Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By Friday, a high risk of
rip currents is anticipated for north and east-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, Culebra, and northern U.S. Virgin Islands.

Additional hazards include the development of isolated thunderstorms
near the coasts during the afternoon hours. If you hear thunder,
seek shelter inside a building immediately. Residents and visitors
should continue monitoring the beach forecast for updates or changes.
For detailed information about your area of interest, please visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
318 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025


* As a northerly swell spreads across the local waters tonight
into Friday, the risk of rip currents along the north-facing
beaches of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands is expected to
increase. Life-threatening rip currents are likely within the
surf zone.

* The flooding risk will increase on Sunday, particularly across
the eastern portions of Puerto Rico, as a tropical wave moves
across the forecast area.


* Limited heat risk could cause heat-related discomfort,
especially in coastal and urban areas during peak hours of the
day though early in the weekend.

* Breezy conditions increasing late this week will create choppy
seas. Small craft should exercise caution. Additionally, a high
risk of rip currents is expected along north-facing beaches by
Friday as a weak northerly swell reaches the Atlantic waters.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

Fair weather conditions prevailed overnight, with mostly clear skies
and a few passing showers observed over the local waters. Overnight
temperatures ranged from the mid-70s to around 80°F at lower
elevations, and from the mid- to upper-60s across higher terrain.

The short-term forecast remains on track, with a ridge pattern
prevailing at mid levels and a surface high promoting east-southeast
winds. As a result, a generally fair weather pattern will persist
across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands through at least
Saturday. However, afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are
still expected across western Puerto Rico each day, driven by sea
breeze convergence and pockets of low-level moisture advected by the
prevailing winds. While moisture will fluctuate at times, the latest
model guidance continues to indicate precipitable water values below
1.75 inches through the forecast period. Additionally, the 500 mb
temperatures are forecast to slightly warm from around -6 to -7C to
near -5C.

Under this pattern, the flooding threat remains limited across west
Puerto Rico, with ponding of water possible on roadways and in
poorly drained areas. The aforementioned east-southeast flow will
support slightly above-normal temperatures at the 925 mb level today
and Friday. These warmer conditions may affect heat-sensitive
individuals, particularly those engaging in prolonged outdoor
activities without adequate hydration or cooling.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

The inherited forecast remains unchanged. On Sunday, the main feature
will be the presence of a tropical wave moving across the
Caribbean waters, bringing a surge of deep tropical moisture over
the region. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase to
around 2.00 to 2.25 inches, which is above the climatological
average for this time of year. In addition, the latest model
guidance indicates that temperatures in the 500 mb layer will
decrease to around -7 degrees Celsius, suggesting mid-level
instability that will enhance vertical development of convection.
As a result, scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
eastern and southern portions of Puerto Rico, spreading inland
throughout the day. With the combination of abundant moisture and
instability, a limited to elevated flooding risk is possible,
particularly across areas that experience persistent or heavy
rainfall.

In the wake of the tropical wave, residual moisture will persist
across the region, resulting in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms throughout the day. Although overall instability
will begin to decrease, the remaining moisture and local effects
may still support localized flooding, particularly in the interior
and western parts of Puerto Rico. Therefore, a limited flooding
risk will persist into the beginning of the work week.

From Tuesday onward, a more typical weather pattern is expected
to return as drier air and a strengthening mid-level ridge promote
stability across the region. Under a southeasterly flow, expect
passing showers across windward areas during the night and morning
hours, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across western and northwestern Puerto Rico
due to local and diurnal effects.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites. SHRA/TSRA
may develop across W PR after 06/17Z, possibly affecting JBQ and JPS
through about 06/22z. This may result in brief MVFR conditions. ESE
winds at 10-15 kts and typical sea breeze variations to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

A weak surface high pressure system over the central to eastern
Atlantic will maintain light to moderate easterly winds over the next
few days. Meanwhile, a surface low moving across the northwestern
Atlantic will generate a northerly swell, increasing seas to around 6
feet or higher across the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages
by late Thursday into Friday. Additionally, moderate to fresh easterly
winds are anticipated by this weekend, along with a better chance of
showers as a tropical wave moves across the Caribbean waters. Small
craft operators will likely need to exercise caution.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

A northerly swell will begin to build across the Atlantic waters
and northern coastlines, causing seas to increase and the rip
current risk to expand westward, including western Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, late today into Friday
night. By Friday, a high risk of rip currents is expected for
north- and east- facing beaches of Puerto Rico, possibly adding Culebra,
and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands later today, where life-
threatening rip currents will be possible.

A few afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms could develop near
the coast, particularly across western Puerto Rico. If you hear
thunder, move indoors immediately.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
350 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

* Life-threatening rip currents are likely along the Atlantic
shorelines as a northerly swell continues to affect the local
waters.

* The flooding risk will increase on Sunday, particularly across
the eastern portions of Puerto Rico, as a tropical wave moves
across the forecast area.

* After Monday, decreasing flooding risk to limited and none is
forecast with the gradual improvement in weather conditions
across the islands.

* Across the US Virgin Islands, passing showers to continue with a
high risk of rip currents for Saint Thomas and Saint John today.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

Partly cloudy skies prevailed overnight, with passing showers
observed across the local waters, eastern Puerto Rico, and the
outlying islands. Temperatures were in the mid-70s to around 80
degrees at lower elevations and from the mid- to upper-60s at
higher elevations.

A mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the local region, with
some strengthening expected toward the end of the forecast period.
At the surface, a high-pressure system over the central Atlantic
will maintain east-southeast winds across the islands, while a
tropical wave/easterly disturbance is forecast to move through the
area on Sunday. As this feature approaches the eastern Caribbean,
moisture advection is expected to increase. The GFS model remains
more aggressive in its depiction of this moisture surge compared
to the ECMWF guidance. Nevertheless, precipitable water values are
expected to rise steadily, reaching or exceeding 2.0 inches by
Sunday.

As a result, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms will then
increase late Saturday into Sunday as the tropical wave moves across
the local islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity will focus over
eastern Puerto Rico from Saturday night into Sunday morning,
spreading westward through the day on Sunday. Although these showers
are expected to move quickly as the 925 mb winds strengthen, the
flooding risk will increase on Sunday, with the potential for urban
and small stream flooding under the heaviest activity.

Meanwhile today and Saturday, continue to expect afternoon showers
and isolated thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico, driven by sea
breeze convergence. Elsewhere, passing showers at times,
particularly eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the US Virgin
Islands Friday night into early Saturday morning.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

Residual moisture from the passage of the tropical wave on Sunday
will linger across the region on Monday, maintaining a moist
environment conducive to scattered showers throughout the day and
isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon.
Although mid-level instability will gradually weaken, localized
flooding remains possible, particularly over western and
northwestern portions of Puerto Rico, where diurnal and local
effects may enhance convection.

By Tuesday, model guidance continues to suggest a gradual
improvement in weather conditions as a mid- to upper-level ridge
strengthens over the area. This ridge will promote increased
atmospheric stability and a gradual drying trend. Relative
humidity values between 700 and 500 mb are expected to range
between the 50th and 25th percentiles, corresponding to near-
normal to below-normal moisture levels for this time of year.
Through at least Friday, the ridge will remain the dominant
feature, maintaining mostly stable and fair weather conditions.
Under the easterly wind flow, expect brief passing showers over
windward and coastal areas during the nighttime and early morning
hours, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and a
few thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico each day, driven
mainly by local and diurnal effects. Overall, a return to a more
typical trade wind pattern is anticipated for mid-to-late week,
with below-average Relative Humidity and Precipitable Water
values, and limited flooding potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the
forecast cycle. However, SHRA/TSRA may develop across W PR after
07/17Z, possibly affecting JBQ through about 07/22z. This may result
in brief MVFR conditions. ESE winds at 10-15 kts and typical sea
breeze variations to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

A surface high pressure, building from the western to central
Atlantic, will result in a moderate to locally fresh east to east-
southeasterly wind flow. A north to northeasterly swell will spread
across the local Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages, peaking by
this morning, followed by a smaller secondary northeasterly swell
during the weekend. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser
Antilles by Saturday, reaching the USVI and PR on Sunday. This
tropical wave is expected to bring unsettled weather conditions,
and an increase in local winds and seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

A northerly swell will begin to build across the Atlantic waters
and northern coastlines, causing seas to increase and the rip
current risk to expand westward posing a risk for high rip
currents along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico,
Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through Saturday,
where life- threatening rip currents will be possible. Weather-
wise, a few afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms could
develop near the coast, particularly across western Puerto Rico.
If you hear thunder, move indoors immediately.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
355 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

* A tropical wave will bring more widespread showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday, especially across eastern Puerto Rico,
with an increased risk of urban and small-stream flooding.
Breezy conditions are also expected.

* Life-threatening rip currents are likely across most shorelines
through at least early next week.

* A seasonable weather pattern will prevail the upcoming
workweek, with no significant weather threats anticipated at
this time.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, tropical wave moving across the
eastern Caribbean tonight into Sunday will bring an increase in
passing showers.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

Overnight, most of the frequent rainfall activity was observed
across the eastern and southern sections of Puerto Rico, where
rainfall accumulations ranged from 0.10 to 0.50 inches. Therefore,
over those areas, skies remained mostly cloudy, while partly cloudy
to clear skies prevailed elsewhere, particularly across western
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Temperatures ranged from
the upper 70s to low 80s along the coastal areas and from the upper
60s to low 70s across the mountainous regions.

Today, typical local effects will dominate the weather pattern. Sea
breeze convergence is expected to lead to the development of
afternoon showers and a few isolated thunderstorms over western
Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, especially across eastern Puerto Rico,
Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, occasional passing
showers are possible during the night and early morning hours.
Temperatures are expected to reach the mid- to upper 80s across
coastal areas and the mid- to upper 70s across the higher terrain.
Winds will gradually increase from today onward as a tropical wave
approaches the region from the southeast.

As the weekend progresses, a tropical wave moving across the eastern
Caribbean will bring a gradual increase in moisture. On Sunday,
precipitable water values are expected to increase to above-normal
levels for this time of year, reaching the 75th percentile. The
latest model guidance suggests relative humidity at 500 mb will
remain near to slightly above normal through this period, further
supporting vertical development of convective activity. This will
enhance the potential for more widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the area. The most active period is anticipated
Sunday afternoon. Regardless, eastern Puerto Rico is forecast to
experience the greatest rainfall activity. These showers will move
quickly with the strengthening easterly winds, but some may produce
heavy rainfall capable of causing urban and small stream flooding,
particularly in low-lying or poor drainage areas.

By Monday, lingering moisture behind the departing tropical wave
will maintain unstable weather conditions across the region.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through
the day, particularly across western and interior Puerto Rico during
the afternoon. While the overall intensity of rainfall is expected
to be lower compared to Sunday, periods of moderate to locally heavy
rain could still lead to ponding of water on roadways and minor
flooding in isolated spots. Temperatures will remain near normal for
this time of year, with highs in the mid-80s along the coast and
cooler readings across higher terrain.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

A mid- to upper-level ridge will dominate the local weather
pattern throughout the forecast period, maintaining relatively
stable conditions across the region. At the surface, a broad high-
pressure system positioned northeast of the islands will yield an
easterly wind flow. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is forecast to
stall north of the area toward the end of the cycle.

Under the subsidence associated with the ridge aloft, available
moisture is forecast to erode from Tuesday onward. Precipitable
water values are expected to decrease to below 1.75 inches, while
500 mb temperatures are anticipated to range between -4°C and
-5°C. This combination will promote a more stable and drier air
mass, limiting vertical development of showers and overall
convective activity.

As a result, a seasonal weather pattern is anticipated across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands with passing showers affecting
portions of eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands during the nighttime and early morning hours,
followed by limited afternoon convection over western and interior
Puerto Rico, driven by local effects and diurnal heating.
Additionally, seasonable temperatures are expected to prevail,
with daytime highs reaching the mid-to-upper 80s in coastal areas
and lower elevations.

No significant weather threats are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

All TAF sites should experience VFR conditions. However, SHRA/TSRA
may develop across W PR after 08/17Z, possibly affecting JBQ through
about 08/22z. This may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions.
ESE winds at 10-15 kts and higher gust near the heaviest rainfall
activity and typical sea breeze variations to continue. Increase in
VCSH over TISX, TIST, and TJSJ after 09/00Z as a tropical wave
continues to approach the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

A surface high pressure across the north-central Atlantic will
yield moderate easterly winds across the local waters during the
next several days. An increase in winds and shower activity is
expected on Sunday as a tropical wave/easterly disturbance moves
across the eastern Caribbean. Although the northerly swell will
continue to subside, a smaller secondary northeasterly swell will
continue to affect the local waters during the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue to prevail across
most of the shorelines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
through at least Monday. Therefore, life-threatening rip currents
are likely in the surf zone, particularly near piers, jetties, and
channels. Conditions are expected to improve by mid-week, next
week.

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
335 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

* An easterly wave will elevate the flooding risk over portions
of eastern Puerto Rico with numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms today.

* Increased frequency of passing showers across the US Virgin
Islands today as the easterly wave moves across the forecast
area.

* Small crafts should exercise caution due to choppy seas while
swimmers need to avoid high-risk beaches due to a moderate risk
of rip currents.

* Improving weather conditions across Puerto Rico and the US
Virgin Islands from Monday onwards, with no significant weather
threats anticipated through at least the end of the workweek.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

During the overnight hours, mostly calm weather prevailed across the
islands and the most active weather over the Caribbean waters. The
first few showers associated with the approaching easterly wave that
reached the islands, produced minimal rainfall accumulations over
the US Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Most weather stations
reported between 0.10 and 0.30 inches of rain. Overnight
temperatures stayed in the upper 70s to low 80s across coastal
areas, while higher elevations remained in the upper 60s to low 70s,
similar to previous nights. Winds were generally SE and variable at
times, with the official weather stations at Henry E. Rohlsen
Airport (St. Croix) and Cyril E. King Airport (St. Thomas) recording
gusts near 23 knots as the wave continued to approach from the east.

For today, winds are expected to increase as the easterly wave moves
across the local area. The latest model guidance indicates
precipitable water (PWAT) values near or above the 75th percentile,
along with enhanced 700 to 500 mb (mid-level) relative humidity.
These conditions favor scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, some capable of producing frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall. The eastern half of Puerto Rico is expected
to experience the most active weather as the wave passes through.
Ponding of water on roadways, as well as an elevated risk for urban
and small stream flooding, are possible in areas receiving the
heaviest rainfall.

By Monday, the wave will move west of the region, leading to gradual
improvement in weather conditions. A mid- to upper-level ridge will
then build, promoting a trade wind inversion near 900 mb and PWAT
values decreasing to around 1.0 inch. While passing showers may
still affect the eastern sections due to lingering moisture, overall
stability will increase. Daytime heating and local effects could
still trigger isolated afternoon showers across western Puerto Rico,
but the flooding risk will remain low and localized.

By Tuesday, fair conditions are expected under the influence of the
ridge pattern. Trade winds will remain moderate to occasionally
breezy, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Any showers that
develop will be brief and mainly concentrated over the interior and
western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon.

Temperatures will continue seasonably warm, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s across coastal and urban areas and lows in the mid-70s. In
the mountains, expect lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Areas that
remain under cloud cover or frequent showers will likely experience
slightly lower daytime highs.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

A mid- to upper-level ridge will prevail across the local islands
through the forecast cycle, with some weakening anticipated
toward the end of the period as a polar trough and its associated
frontal boundary move across the western and central Atlantic. At
the surface, a broad high-pressure system positioned northeast of
the islands will maintain easterly winds through at least the end
of the workweek. However, as the aforementioned surface front
approaches the area, winds are expected to veer to east-southeast
and become light and variable. Under the subsidence associated
with the ridge aloft, precipitable water values are expected to
remain below normal for much of the workweek. However, an increase
in PW values is expected over the upcoming weekend as the ridge
aloft weakens and the surface front moves closer to the local
islands.

As a result, a seasonable weather pattern is anticipated across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with a few passing showers
affecting portions of eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands during the nighttime and early morning
hours, followed by limited afternoon convection across western and
interior Puerto Rico. Additionally, seasonable temperatures will
prevail, with daytime highs reaching the mid-to-upper 80s across
coastal and lower-elevation areas.

Overall, no significant weather threats are currently anticipated.
However, the flooding potential may increase toward the end of
the period due to moisture advection associated with the
approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions across all TAF sites through most of the period.
However, as the tropical wave approaches the local area, an increase
in SH and VCTS is expected, particularly affecting TJSJ, TIST, and
TISX with periods of MVFR condt possible after 09/10Z. Brief
reductions in visibility and low ceilings are likely with the
heavier activity. VCTS possible over TJPS and TJBQ after 09/17Z with
the local effects. Surface winds will be from the east to southeast
(E-SE) at 12–16 knots, with occasional gusts up to 23 knots
developing between 09/13Z and 09/14Z. Winds will remain gusty at
times near the rainfall activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

A surface high pressure across the north central Atlantic will
promote easterly winds, becoming moderate to locally fresh through
Monday. Additionally, an increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected today as an easterly wave moves across the
eastern Caribbean.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue to prevail across
most of the shorelines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
through at least Tuesday. Therefore, life-threatening rip
currents are possible in the surf zone, particularly near piers,
jetties, and channels. Conditions are expected to deteriorate by
the end of the workweek.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
230 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

* Fair weather will persist through much of the period, with brief
interruptions of showers reaching the islands at times.

* The risk of rip currents will increase to high on Thursday for the
northern coast of Puerto Rico, including Culebra.

* Seasonably warm temperatures, plenty of sunshine, and only a few
showers are in the forecast for the Virgin Islands for most of
the week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

Fair and stable weather conditions prevailed across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. However, some patches of
cloudiness filtered across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, producing a few light showers that led to minimal rainfall
accumulations. Temperatures remained in the 70s across urban and
coastal areas and in the 60s to low 70s in the higher elevations as
skies cleared during the night, unlike previous days.

The latest satellite imagery indicates a drier air mass advancing
from the Lesser Antilles, which will gradually filter across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today into midweek. The latest
model guidance also shows this trend, suggesting a decline in
precipitable water values and 700 to 500 mb relative humidity levels
to near one inch, particularly by late Monday into Tuesday. Meaning
that only brief showers are expected over eastern Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and morning hours,
while in the afternoons, some localized showers may develop across
western Puerto Rico due to sea breeze convergence and local effects,
but no flooding concerns are anticipated through the short term
period.

Tuesday remains on track to be the driest day of the forecast
period, as a strong mid-level ridge continues to dominate the
region, maintaining fair weather conditions. Occasionally breezy
easterly trade winds will filter across, bringing isolated quick-
moving showers across windward areas during the night and early
morning, followed by mostly sunny skies during the day. Any
afternoon convection will be brief and localized mainly over the
interior and western Puerto Rico.

By Wednesday, similar conditions are expected, with limited moisture
and continued influence of the ridge pattern, resulting in stable
weather and near-normal temperatures across the region.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

A mid to upper level ridge will stay in place for the end of the
workweek and the weekend, maintaining a fair weather pattern across
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. North of the ridge, a polar
trough will move from the eastern coast of the United States into
the Atlantic Ocean. This will maintain the trade winds week, mostly
coming from the southeast at speeds of 11 kts on Thursday, and less
than 3 to 8 knots from Friday into early next week. For most of the
period, columnar moisture will be below normal, so rainfall activity
will be limited to a few showers along eastern Puerto Rico and the
United States, and limited convection in the west in the afternoon
hours. The risk of urban and small stream flooding will be low to
none for the period.

The day with the highest chances of rain will be on Saturday, as a
frontal boundary approaches the region. Even then, rainfall is not
expected to be widespread or too strong, but with enough moisture,
showers should fire up along the interior of Puerto Rico, while
others also reach the Virgin Islands occasionally.

Temperatures will be seasonably warm too, or slightly above normal,
with highs still in the mid and upper 80s in urban and low elevated
areas. Los will be mostly in the 70s for coastal areas, and in the
60s for the highest mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites through
the period. VCSH possible at TJBQ and TJPS after 10/17Z, and at
TJSJ, TIST, and TISX after 11/00Z. Surface winds will remain from
the east at 10 to 15 knots, with occasional higher gusts, mainly
during the late morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

A surface high pressure over the north central Atlantic will promote
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds for the next few days,
maintaining choppy seas. A north-northwesterly swell will bring
hazardous marine conditions across the local waters and passages by
midweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue to prevail across most
of the shorelines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with
possible life-threatening rip currents in the surf zone. By late
Wednesday and Thursday, a north-northwesterly swell will bring
hazardous beach conditions, particularly along north-facing beaches
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, increasing the risk of
rip currents to moderate to high. Beachgoers are urged to heed the
advice of the flag warning system and to always swim near a
lifeguard.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
423 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

* Mostly stable weather conditions for today and tomorrow, with
only a few areas that would experience afternoon convection
and a limited flood threat.

* From Saturday into Sunday, weather conditions will deteriorate
as a frontal boundary approaches north of the islands.

* On Thursday into Friday, a long-period northerly swell will
result in a high risk of rip currents along the north-facing
beaches in PR and the USVI.

* The U.S. Virgin Islands will enjoy stable and fair weather
conditions from today into Friday, with some passing showers in
the early morning hours.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

A few showers were observed during the nighttime over the local
waters, and occasionally reaching portions of eastern Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. However, rainfall accumulations were mostly
light, and most of the area saw clear skies and temperatures in the
70s.

Generally stable conditions are expected to prevail through much of
the workweek. At the upper levels, a ridge is centered just west of
Puerto Rico. At the mid levels, the ridge is centered just to the
northeast of the Caribbean. At the surface, high pressure is driving
the trade winds from the southeast, at speeds just below 15 knots.
In these winds, irregular patches of moisture, induced by an upper
level trough located east of the Lesser Antilles, will reach the
islands at times. This rain interruptions are expected to be brief,
and flooding is not anticipated. Also, diurnal heating is expected
to fire up showers in the northwest each afternoon, but rainfall
accumulation are expected to be minimal as well.

Temperatures are expected to be a little warmer than normal, with
highs mostly in the upper 80s, and lows in the 70s for coastal
areas, and in the 60s in the mountains.

&&

.Long Term...Friday through Tuesday...

A variable weather pattern is expected through the long term
period as a frontal boundary moves southward during the first part
of the forecast. From Friday into early Saturday, the local
islands will be dominated by an easterly wind flow. Under this
pattern, patches of shallow moisture with precipitable water
values between 1.2 and 1.6 inches will persist, remaining near
climatological normals. Although some moisture will be present, a
mid- to upper-level ridge will limit shower development across
most areas, leaving a moderate to high chance of afternoon showers
over the western interior on Friday.

Late Saturday into the upcoming workweek, the surface pattern
will shift as the frontal boundary approaches and weakens the
pressure gradient. Winds will veer from the north-northwest late
Saturday into Sunday, increasing the potential for passing showers
due to a cold advection pattern. This setup will promote showers
across the coastal waters and portions of the northern coast
during the morning and evening hours. However, significant
rainfall accumulations are not anticipated during this period.

A surface high pressure building over the western portion of the
Central Atlantic will weaken the frontal boundary early next week,
returning the local flow to an east-southeast direction from
Monday into Tuesday. This will promote a more typical weather
regime with heat indices possibly reaching 108 degrees in some
areas, followed by afternoon convection across the interior and
western Puerto Rico. &&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. SHRA will move at times across the local terminals and
surrounding waters, but impacts to operations are expected to be
minimal to none. However, from 18-22Z, SHRA are expected in the
vicinity of TJBQ, with periods of reduced VIS possible. Winds will
be from the SE at 11-14 kts, with gusts around 20 kts, especially
from 14-21Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

A broad surface high pressure extending from the north into the
Central Atlantic will maintain a moderate to locally fresh
easterly wind flow across the regional waters. A north-
northwesterly swell is forecast to arrive by Wednesday, increasing
seas and producing hazardous marine conditions across the offshore
Atlantic waters. Seas are expected to build to around 7 feet.
Small Craft Advisories may be required later today or tomorrow.
&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will persist through today into
tomorrow. A north-northwesterly swell arriving by Wednesday will
increase seas and result in hazardous surf conditions along the
northern beaches of Puerto Rico. Beachgoers should remain alert
and stay tuned for updates to the rip current risk forecast.&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
443 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025

* Variable conditions are expected to prevail from today through
Friday, with mostly stable weather and passing showers in the
afternoon for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
* From Saturday into Sunday, an increase in showers and fresher
temperatures is forecast as a frontal boundary approaches.

* Hazardous marine and coastal conditions with seas up to 7 feet
across the offshore Atlantic waters and a high risk of rip
currents along the north exposed beaches of Puerto Rico,
Culebra, and St. Croix from this evening throught Thursday.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, isolated passing showers are
forecast for the day, with a similar weather pattern for
tomorrow.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025

The most recent satellite imagery show an area of enhanced moisture
covering the northeast Caribbean, with precipitable water values
around 1.5 inches. This brought a few showers during the overnight
hours across eastern Puerto Rico and the northern Virgin Islands.
Rainfall accumulations was minimal. Skies were mostly clear to
partly cloudy, and temperatures dropped into the mid and upper 70s
in coastal areas, and the 60s in the mountain.

Local conditions will be dominated by a ridge in the mid and upper
levels, that is maintaining moisture trapped closer to the surface.
East of the Lesser Antilles, an upper level trough continues to
induce small patches of moisture that will be carried by the trade
winds irregularly. Even when the atmosphere is not prime for strong
shower production, some brief interruptions of rainfall is expected
at times along eastern Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands.
Rainfall in the afternoon should also be brief, with a very low risk
of flooding, mostly along western Puerto Rico.

By Friday, the ridge weakens in response to a long wave polar trough
exiting the eastern coast of the United States. This will cause the
trade winds to weaken, at speeds of 4 to 8 kts. While moisture will
remain limited, conditions could allow for stronger convection to
form in the afternoon along the interior of Puerto Rico.
Nevertheless, the risk of flooding should remain limited.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025

The islands will be dominated mainly by a pre-frontal trough at
the surface and a trough at the mid-to-upper levels. At the
surface, the surface trough will weaken the pressure gradient,
resulting in variable and light winds from Saturday into Sunday
along the islands. According to the global model guidance, the
frontal boundary will dissipate just north of the region as a
surface high pressure builds just across the western Atlantic,
extending into the Central Atlantic. Although the frontal boundary
will remain to our north, enough deep enough moisture will reach
the islands. The available moisture trapped in the first 300 MB
[1000-700 MB] with precipitable water values from 1.5 to 1.7
inches, which are normal values for this time, will allow the
development of afternoon convection. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected, with the heaviest activity forecasted due to some
instability caused by the presence of the mid-level trough, which
enhances colder temperatures at 500 MB, ranging between -6 and -7
degrees Celsius. Since winds will be variable, the focus of the
showers and the translation movement can contribute to some
isolated urban flooding, with the heaviest showers occurring
during the afternoon hours.

From Monday onwards, as the surface high pressure migrates further
into the Central Atlantic, veering winds from the east-southeast
will again change the weather pattern across the islands.
Therefore, residents can expect a more typical weather pattern,
with an increase in heat indices in some coastal areas and
afternoon convection primarily across eastern sections of Puerto
Rico, specifically in the vicinity of El Yunque, extending to some
metropolitan areas and northwestern Puerto Rico. Rainfall
accumulation is not forecast to be significant; however, some
isolated urban and minor flooding cannot be ruled out in low-
lying areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast
period. SCT SHRA will persist across the Atlantic and Caribbean
waters, occasionally reaching the USVI and PR terminals. However,
impacts to operations are expected to be minimal to none. After 17Z,
SHRA are expected to develop in the Cordillera Central, which could
cause mountain obscuration, and very briefly reducing VIS and
ceilings in the vicinity of TJPS. Winds will be from the ENE at 12-
16 kts, with stronger gusts.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025

A broad surface high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will
continue to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds across
the regional waters during the next few days, keeping choppy to
occasionally rough seas. Hazardous marine conditions are forecast due
to a north- northwesterly swell spreading across the local Atlantic
waters and passages from this evening through Thursday evening. As a
result, Small Craft Advisories will be in effect starting Wednesday
evening.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025

For today, a low risk of rip currents will persist along all
coastal areas of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, increasing to moderate during nighttime hours. A
north-northwesterly swell is forecast to arrive across the
northern coastal areas from Thursday, enhancing breaking waves up
to 7 feet, resulting in a high risk of rip current. Beachgoers are
urged to stay tuned for further updates.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
338 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 335 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

* Dangerous beach conditions along northern Puerto Rico, Culebra,
St. Thomas and St. Croix. Avoid approaching or swimming in these
beaches.

* Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
along western Puerto Rico. There is a low risk of urban and small
stream flooding.

* For the Virgin Islands, seasonably warm temperatures and passing
showers are expected. No significant threat are expected over
land areas.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 335 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

A variable weather pattern prevailed overnight, with frequent
passing showers along the local waters and some reaching the
northeast coast of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Shower
activity remained limited across the interior and western portions
of Puerto Rico. Minimum temperatures stayed in the mid-to-upper 70s
across the mountain areas, with slightly warmer readings across the
coastal zones in the upper 70s to low 80s, including the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Winds were from the east at 10 mph or less with land breeze
variations.

For today, a variable weather pattern is forecast, mainly influenced
by surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, resulting in
easterly winds. This surface flow will keep the islands under a
moist pattern due to patches of moisture from an induced surface
trough just north of the area, with precipitable water values around
1.6 inches, near climatological normals. With sufficient low-level
moisture, local effects, and colder temperatures at 500 MB
decreasing from -5 to -6 °C, a convective pattern will develop,
especially across the western interior. Although widespread activity
is not expected, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. A
drying trend is anticipated on Friday as precipitable water values
decrease to the 25th percentile, allowing for a calmer weather
pattern with isolated showers, particularly during the night hours.

Surface conditions are expected to change rapidly late Saturday as
an approaching frontal boundary sinks southward north of the
islands, while the pre-frontal trough weakens the pressure gradient.
This evolving pattern will result in light and variable winds, as
suggested by the 925 MB winds, which are forecast to weaken to near
5 knots. At upper levels, a decrease in 250 MB heights will enhance
divergence aloft, supporting upward motion, while the 850–700 MB
layer will show a spike in moisture values above the normal
climatological range. As a result, an increase in shower activity is
expected across the offshore Atlantic waters, extending into the
northern coastal areas by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 335 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

A polar trough will escort a cold front near the area on Sunday,
increasing moisture across the region. Ahead of the front, high
pressure centered over the eastern Atlantic will drive the trade
winds from the south at speeds of only 3 to 4 kts. So far, the
global models only indicate precipitable water values near normal
levels, and also quite a large dew point depression in the mid
levels. This means that a widespread rainfall event is not expected.
However, some showers will reach the islands at times. Also, the
heaviest activity is expected to develop along the interior of
Puerto Rico due to local effects.

As the front dissipated north of the region, a short wave trough in
the upper levels will move into the region. This will cause mid-
levels temperatures to cool down, increasing instability aloft.
Moisture levels will not be impressive though, but should be enough
to see a few thunderstorms developing each afternoon along the
interior and western Puerto Rico. The risk of flooding is low at
this time, although isolated urban and small stream flooding cannot
be ruled out.

By the end of the week, another trough digs from the northeast. A
surface reflection of this trough will change the winds from the
northeast, at speeds of 10 to 15 mph. The islands are not expected
to be in the most favorable area for deep convection to develop, but
the frequency of passing showers could increase for portions of
northeast Puerto Rico, as well as for the Virgin Islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 335 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites during the period.
After 13/15Z, winds will increase again from the east at around 15
knots with sea breeze variations. Afternoon showers may lead to
lower ceilings and reduced visibility, resulting in brief MVFR
conditions at TJBQ and TJPS between 13/17Z and 13/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

A north-northwesterly swell will continue to arrive today,
deteriorating marine conditions. Conditions are expected to gradually
improve tomorrow. A broad surface high pressure over the north-central
Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds across the regional waters during the next few days, keeping
choppy to occasionally rough seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 335 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

An approaching north-northwesterly swell will spread across the
local Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages today, deteriorating
the coastal conditions into tonight. Thus, life-threatening rip
currents are expected to form from Rincon to Fajardo and Culebra
late tonight or early Thursday morning, creating a High Risk of
rip currents. Meanwhile, the risk will moderate for the north-
facing beaches along St. Thomas, St. John, and the Adjacent
Islands. Conditions will improve gradually tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
411 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

* High rip current risk remains today for northern Puerto Rico,
Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John today. Conditions will gradually
improve this weekend, but a moderate rip current risk remains.

* Showers will develop along western Puerto Rico this afternoon,
with a moderate change of experiencing urban and small stream
flooding. Avoid flood prone areas and roads.

* Across the Virgin Islands, passing showers are expected during the
day, but the rain should not be cause high impacts.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A variable weather pattern persisted across the local waters and
some eastern sections due to a perturbation at 700 mb, which
resulted in cloudiness and moisture moving across the islands.
Showers were more intense over the local waters, with light to
moderate rain affecting some eastern sections. According to Doppler
radar estimates, rainfall accumulations of nearly 1 inch were
observed over western Humacao, and less across the rest of the
areas. Minimum temperatures remained in the low 80s across the
coastal regions, while being fresher in the mountain areas.

For the rest of the morning and into the afternoon hours, the
islands will be dominated mainly by the perturbation moving across
the islands, which will continue to enhance cloudiness and produce
isolated to scattered showers. As the morning progresses, an area
with less moisture will filter in, as shown in the precipitation
water satellite-derived imagery. This drier area will allow the
islands to experience a decrease in cloudiness; however, it will
enhance diurnal heating, resulting in afternoon convection. Surface
winds will vary from the east to the southeast and will become
lighter to gentle due to the presence of a frontal boundary that is
sinking southward north of the islands. As a result, the focus of
the showers will be across the interior and northwestern sections of
Puerto Rico.

For early Saturday, the influence of the prefrontal trough is
expected to result in veering winds across the region, with winds
shifting from the northeast to the south throughout the day. At the
same time, the frontal band is expected to weaken, and patches of
moisture with precipitable water values between 1.5 and 1.7 inches,
which are near the climatological normals, will move across the
area. Given these conditions, the islands could experience a
variable weather pattern, with afternoon showers mainly occurring
across the interior. For Sunday, some instability is expected due to
the proximity of a mid- to upper-level trough, as shown by the 250
mb heights. This instability will result in colder temperatures at
500 mb, ranging from -6 to -8 degrees Celsius. Therefore,
thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out with the strongest showers
across the interior and northeastern Puerto Rico, as well as nearby
offshore areas to the northeast of the island. The change in the
wind flow from Saturday into Sunday could lead to an increase in
heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees across portions of the
north-central and urban coastal areas of the island. If you are
exposed to the sun for long periods, remember to stay hydrated.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A surface high pressure centered over the eastern Atlantic will
drive the trade winds from the southeast Monday and Tuesday, and
then from the east on Wednesday. At the mid and upper levels, a
ridge will build over the western Caribbean Sea, bringing a
northwesterly dry flow over the region. At the low level, however,
the southeasterly flow will lift moisture from the Caribbean into
the islands. The global models suggest that this pattern will bring
some showers moving into the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico
at times, followed by afternoon convection in the afternoon across
western Puerto Rico. Since moisture is expected to be shallow in
nature, rain should only be locally strong, with a low chance of
experiencing urban and small stream flooding.

By the latter part of the week, surface high will migrate from the
southeastern portions of the United States into the western Atlantic
Ocean. The high will cause the winds to shift from the northeast,
while causing temperatures to cool down too. The air mass will be
drier too, so the weather will be generally fair, with only a few
showers reaching the area at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites
during the period. From 14/17Z, brief MVFR conditions are expected
at TJBQ and TJPS due to SHRA and VCTS, resulting in lower CIGs and
reduced VIS. Winds will remain from the east at around 10 knots
through 14/15Z, then become light and shift to the E-NE by 15/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A northerly swell will gradually subside today, but still maintaining
conditions hazardous for small craft across the offshore Atlantic
waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds tonight will gradually weaken
today as a pre-frontal trough approaches the islands from the
north.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A decaying long-period northwesterly swell will maintain
hazardous breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents along
the north- facing beaches in PR and St Thomas, St John early today.
Thus, the risk of rip currents will be high for today. Conditions
will continue to gradually improve by later today and tonight as
the wave energy dissipates, leaving a moderate risk of rip
currents for the weekend.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
425 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 402 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

* A pre-frontal trough will enhance light winds and moisture
across the islands, increasing the potential for afternoon
showers.

* An increase in showers and thunderstorms is expected tomorrow,
particularly across the interior and northern parts of Puerto
Rico, including the San Juan metropolitan area.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, a variable weather pattern will persist
today and tomorrow with periods of brief passing showers.

* There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the north-facing
coastal areas of the islands.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 402 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

Overnight, mainly calm weather conditions prevailed across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A few showers developed over the
waters but accumulations remained low. Minimum temperatures stayed
in the low 80s across urban and coastal areas, while the higher
terrain cooled into the upper 60s to mid-70s. Winds were generally
from the east, becoming variable at times, with speeds around 5 to
10 mph.

For the weekend, the latest model guidance indicates relative
humidity and precipitable water values near normal, along with a
weakening mid to upper level trough east of the area as a deep polar
trough over the western Atlantic shifts into the central Atlantic.
By today (Saturday), winds will become lighter or even variable,
allowing afternoon convection to develop and spread over a broader
portion of the islands. These weak steering winds will cause showers
and thunderstorms to move slowly, increasing their potential to
regenerate and produce widespread rainfall. As the deep-layer trough
moves closer to the region from Saturday into Sunday with its
greatest influence expected from Saturday evening through Sunday
evening it will cool the mid-levels to below-normal values,
enhancing instability and allowing deeper moisture to build through
the column. As a result, elevated flooding risk remains possible,
particularly for Puerto Rico from this afternoon onwards. By the end
of the weekend, a high-pressure system will position itself north of
the area, allowing winds to become more east-southeasterly.

On Monday, a low-pressure system will approach the region from the
southeast, allowing precipitable water values to remain near the
50th percentile, or near-normal levels for this time of year. We
encourage residents and visitors to continue monitoring the forecast
for potential impacts in their area.


&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 402 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

During early Tuesday into early Wednesday, the islands will be
mainly influenced by a surface high pressure over the central
Atlantic, resulting in mostly east-southeasterly winds. Embedded
within this wind flow are patches of trapped tropical moisture
with precipitable water values between 1.4 and 1.6 inches.
Although this moisture will be present and concentrated near 850
MB, drier conditions are expected from 500 to 250 MB due to a
stable weather pattern. Global models suggest this setup will
bring some showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern
Puerto Rico at times, followed by afternoon convection over
western Puerto Rico. Since the available moisture is expected to
remain shallow, rainfall should be only locally heavy, with a low
probability of urban or small-stream flooding.

A more stable and drier weather pattern is forecast from late
Thursday into Friday. A broad and strengthening surface high
pressure system exiting the eastern coast of the United States and
extending into the central Atlantic will establish a
northeasterly wind flow across the region. This shift in the wind
pattern will transport a drier and cooler air mass over the
islands, limiting shower development and improving overall weather
conditions. This shift will also support a cold-advection pattern
mainly across the local northern waters. According to the 925 MB
temperature fields, temperatures are expected to decrease across
the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 402 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

Mainly VFR conditions prevailing across TAF sites during the
morning hours. After 15/16-17Z, intermittent periods of MVFR conds
are possible due to VCTS or TSRA across TJSJ, TJPS, and TJBQ
resulting in lower ceilings, brief higher winds, and reduced
visibilities. After 15/23Z, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail, but periods of VCSH cannot be ruled out at most TAF
sites. Expect variable winds mainly below 8 knots, becoming even
more calm tonight. &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

A frontal boundary and the associated pre-frontal trough located
north of the islands will continue to result in a light to gentle
easterly wind flow across the local islands. For today, surface
winds are expected to become more from the east-southeast later
today into Sunday as a weak surface high establishes north of the
region. Therefore, mariners can expect surface winds up to 10
knots with seas up to 5 feet and up to 4 feet along the coastal
waters in the Atlantic, and even lower across the Caribbean Sea.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 402 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the northern, exposed
local beaches, and a low risk of rip currents across the southern
coastal areas. Although conditions are suitable for beachgoers,
visitors, and residents are urged to be aware of other coastal
hazards, including afternoon lightning in the western sections of
Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
400 AM AST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 334 AM AST Sun Nov 16 2025

* Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will increase flooding
and lightning risk over northern portions of Puerto Rico this
afternoon.

* More frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely late
this afternoon and tonight over the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Low to moderate risk of rip currents will prevail today,
followed by a high risk along north and east- facing beaches of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 334 AM AST Sun Nov 16 2025

Satellite and Doppler Radar imagery detected showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across the local waters. Some of these moved
over St. Thomas, St. John, and the Adjacent Islands, while the rest
of the islands experienced little to no rain. A mid-to-upper-level
cloud layer moved over the islands around midnight, primarily
creating cloudy skies, which dissipated across most land locations
by early Sunday morning. Minimum temperatures dropped into the low
to mid-70s along the coastal areas, to the low to mid-60s in the
mountains and valleys. Winds were calm to light and variable
overnight, influenced by land breeze variations along the coast.

A dissipating surface trough north of the islands and very light
winds will keep today’s weather pattern slow moving, while a mid to
upper level trough overhead maintains an unstable atmosphere
supportive of strong showers and thunderstorms. Although peak
instability is expected during the morning hours, the most active
period is still anticipated this afternoon, additionally driven by
diurnal heating and sea breeze convergence. Moisture levels should
remain near typical values, with the deeper moisture plume staying
north of the region, but the very weak steering flow will allow
storms to drift slowly and produce heavy downpours, frequent
lightning, and localized flooding, beginning across the interior and
later spreading mainly into northern Puerto Rico. This setup will
support a limited lightning risk and a limited to elevated flood
risk for today. Although temperatures will be warmer than normal,
there are no heat concerns. Conditions should gradually improve
tonight as slightly more stable air moves in from the subsidence
side of the trough.

A high pressure system over the North Atlantic will bring gentle
easterly to southeast winds, while a weak mid level ridge helps
maintain slightly drier air aloft on Monday. This will lead to fewer
and more isolated showers and thunderstorms, even during peak
heating hours, with afternoon activity favoring the central interior
and the northwestern quadrant. Most of this activity will remain
confined to the daytime hours, with Monday night staying mostly
quiet as stable and relatively drier conditions limit shower
development. On Tuesday, winds shift from the east northeast as
another pre frontal trough sets up to the north and cooler
temperatures aloft begin to return ahead of the next upper level
trough. Even so, moisture will stay on the low side during the day
and mid level temperatures will not cool enough to support
widespread development, keeping most activity limited and clustered
over the central interior to west southwest sections during the
afternoon. By Tuesday night, a modest increase in moisture
associated with the remnants of a frontal boundary, combined with
gradually increasing instability aloft, will support a bit more
activity compared to the previous night. Overall flooding risk will
remain in the limited category on both Monday and Tuesday due to
reduced moisture and slightly more stable conditions. Although
temperatures will be warmer than normal, heat will not pose any
concerns.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 334 AM AST Sun Nov 16 2025

No major changes were introduced to the long-term forecast, as
weather conditions are expected to gradually improve over the
period. A polar trough should deepen sufficiently into the tropics,
cooling mid-level temperatures (between -8 and -9 degrees Celsius)
and increasing stability aloft. Additionally, the latest model
guidance suggest that the remnants of a frontal boundary should move
across the region by Wednesday, increasing moisture content.
Although the deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF suggests
that Precipitable Water values will remain seasonal (1.6 - 1.8
inches), showers and isolated thunderstorms should increase flooding
and lightning potential, particularly over portions of interior and
southwestern Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations will likely promote
ponding of water over roadways, urban and poorly drained areas, with
isolated urban and flooding risk. By Friday, a surface high-pressure
system should build over the western Atlantic and mainly promote
winds with a northerly component. Additionally, winds are very
likely to increase, promoting locally breezy conditions mainly over
the coastal areas of the islands. For the upcoming weekend, patches
of moisture will move occasionally across the islands, with mostly
passing showers across the local waters and passages, moving over
windward sections in the morning hours and afternoon convection over
interior and southern portions of Puerto Rico.

From the latest deterministic guidance, both GFS and ECMWF suggest a
tendency of 925 mb temperatures to decrease during the period.
Although ECMWF is warmer, both model solutions suggest temperatures
below climatological normal (below 20 degrees Celsius). Given the
expected weather conditions and temperatures, the heat risk will
remain low during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 334 AM AST Sun Nov 16 2025

Mainly VFR conds will prevail across most TAF sites through the
period. Brief SHRA and isolated TSRA may approach n PR and USVI
terminals through 16/13Z. Additional rounds of SHRA/TSRA are
possible this afternoon, mainly between 16/16Z–22Z, which may lead
to short-lived MVFR conds across most PR terminals. Improving conds
expected aft 16/22Z with only ltd SHRA overnight. Winds VRB to light
early, increasing to 5–10 kt between 16/13Z–22Z, dominated by sea-
breeze influences. Higher gusts psbl in and near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM AST Sun Nov 16 2025

Due to the proximity of a pre-frontal trough northeast of the region,
a variable light to gentle breeze will persist today, becoming
moderate by Monday night. Pulses of northerly swells and increasing
easterly winds will likely deteriorate marine conditions on Monday
through Wednesday. In the meantime, strong showers and isolated
thunderstorms could generate locally hazardous conditions for small
craft.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 334 AM AST Sun Nov 16 2025

Today, there’s a moderate risk of rip currents mainly over northern
and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, while the rest of the beaches remain under low risk.
Under a moderate risk, isolated stronger rip currents may occur
elsewhere, especially near piers, jetties, and channels. Beachgoers
are urged to exercise caution and swim near a lifeguard.
Additionally, afternoon thunderstorms could produce lightning and
gusty winds, beachgoers should remain weather alert and seek for
shelter whenever they hear thunder.

Pulses of a north-northeasterly swell will deteriorate beach
conditions by Monday, increasing the risk of rip currents through at
least Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
456 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025

* A high risk of rip currents is in effect along the north and
east facing beaches of Puerto Rico and St. Croix in the U.S.
Virgin Islands through Wednesday.

* Slow-moving showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase the
flooding and lightning risk from the interior to western
portions of Puerto Rico this afternoon.

* More frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely late
tonight and early Tuesday morning across the U.S. Virgin
Islands.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025

During the overnight hours, mostly calm and stable conditions
prevailed across the region. Skies ranged from mostly clear to
partly cloudy, and minimum temperatures fell into the low to mid-70s
across most coastal areas, with a few locations across the San Juan
metropolitan area and the USVI holding in the upper 70s. Winds
remained very light to calm under a weak surface pressure gradient.

For today, the forecast remains on track. As discussed previously,
the forecast area will be positioned under the subsident side of a
mid- to upper-level trough, while a stationary frontal boundary
lingers well to the northeast of the islands. Global model
climatology comparisons from the 17/00Z runs show a gradual warming
of the 500 mb temperatures as the upper trough continues to shift
eastward, with values rising toward -5 to -6 degrees Celsius.
Although this indicates some erosion of upper-level dynamics, the
temperatures remain cool enough to support moderate instability, an
environment reflected by 700-500 mb lapse rates that remain near or
slightly above climatological mid-range values. A reduction in
moisture is also expected, with precipitable water values between
1.3 and 1.4 inches, which is slightly below normal for mid-November.
These conditions should support a quiet morning with only a few
brief showers moving in from the waters and occasionally brushing
coastal sectors.

By the afternoon, the combination of diurnal heating, sea-breeze
convergence, and local effects will likely generate scattered
showers and possibly a few short-lived thunderstorms across the
interior and western/northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. High-res
models continue to suggest convective development despite the
marginal moisture and weakening instability aloft, and under a
southeasterly steering flow, some showers may also develop downwind
of El Yunque and drift toward the San Juan metropolitan area. Given
the relatively dry mid-levels and the short duration of convection,
the flooding risk remains low for today.

Moisture levels are forecast to recover slightly to near-normal
values on Tuesday, with winds gradually shifting from southeasterly
to more easterly. A surface trough located near the Leeward Islands
may approach the region; however, most associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to remain south across the
Caribbean waters. Even so, afternoon convection driven by local
effects and sea-breeze interactions may still develop over Puerto
Rico, but rainfall accumulations should be limited and the flood
risk low.

By Wednesday, conditions become more favorable for convection as
another polar trough deepens and moves eastward across the western
Atlantic into the northeastern Caribbean. The region is expected to
lie beneath the more favorable, divergent side of this upper-level
feature during the afternoon and evening hours. Model climatology
comparisons show 500 mb temperatures dropping significantly to
around -8 to -9 degrees Celsius, along with steepening 700-500 mb
lapse rates and a notable decrease in 250 mb height fields and 1000-
500 mb thickness values, all indicative of more favorable upper-
level support and increased instability. These changes should
enhance the potential for more widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Northeasterly steering winds may slightly limit
surface heating, but convective development may still be sustained
by stronger upper-level forcing, allowing showers and thunderstorms
to continue or redevelop through the evening and into the overnight
hours across the Atlantic waters, with occasional movement inland.
Under these conditions, the flood risk may increase on Wednesday,
especially in areas that experience repeated showers.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025

A gradual improvement in the weather conditions is still anticipated
by the end of the workweek into the upcoming weekend. Thursday
may be the “wettest day of the period due to lingering moisture
across the region and the influence of the polar trough. From the
deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF, seasonal Precipitable
Water values (1.5 - 1.6 inches) and colder 500 mb temperatures
(around -8.5 degrees Celsius) are likely. Combined with local
effects and daytime heating , afternoon convection may develop
over the mountain ranges and southwestern Puerto Rico. Although
rainfall accumulations may not reach significant flooding
criteria, ponding of water over roadways, urban areas, and poorly
drained areas may lead to isolated urban and small stream flooding
over the aforementioned areas. By Friday, a surface high pressure
system should build over the western Atlantic, promoting mostly
NE winds. Weather conditions should improve over the weekend as
drier air filters into the region with a mid level ridge
dominating the weather pattern. From the latest model guidance,
PWAT values are likely to decrease and remain below climatological
normal (between 1.2 - 1.4 inches), while 500 mb temperatures will
get warmer than normal by the end of the period. Patches of
moisture will move occasionally across the CWA, bringing light to
moderate passing showers over windward sections of the islands in
the late night into the morning hours. Although afternoon
convection is expected, shower activity will likely be limited
under this weather pattern. Therefore, the flooding and lightning
threat is not expected for the rest of the forecast period.

Model guidance continues to suggest a fall in 925 mb temperatures,
being Thursday cooler than normal. Although the latest GFS
solution is tending to warmer temperatures for Saturday,
temperatures should remain seasonal, presenting no heat threat.
Hence, the heat risk should remain low for the rest of the period.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025


VFR conds will prevail through 17/15Z with SKC to FEW/SCT and
light/VRB winds. Brief -SHRA over local waters may brush coastal
terminals but with no significant impacts. Aft 17/14Z, winds
increase from the ESE-SE at 08-13 kt with sea-breeze influences.
Aftn convection over the interior and wrn PR may bring VCSH/VCTS to
TJSJ and TJBQ, with brief MVFR and mtn obscurations possible. PROB30
TSRA was added for TJBQ/TJSJ during peak heating. Convection
diminishes aft 17/22Z with light winds returning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025

A fading pre frontal trough north of the area will keep light to
gentle southeasterly winds today, becoming moderate from the east
late tonight due a surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic.
Pulses of a north northeasterly swell will spread across the Atlantic
waters and local passages through Wednesday. Another approaching pre
frontal trough will promote winds from the northeast later in the
workweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025

As mentioned in previous discussions, conditions were expected to
deteriorate due to pulses of north-northeasterly swells arriving
over the region. Current buoy observations show an increase in
period (between 10 - 12 seconds, up to 15 seconds for the San Juan
buoy), which results in breaking waves around 6 feet, promoting
hazardous beach conditions. Hence, a high risk of rip currents is
in effect for the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico,
Culebra, and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Residents and
visitors planning on visiting the beach are urged to exercise
caution, as life- threatening rip currents are present along the
surf zone. Heed the advice of the flag warning system and swim
near a lifeguard. Afternoon convection may produce gusty winds
and lightning, beachgoers should remain weather alert and seek
shelter whenever they hear thunder.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
406 AM AST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 348 AM AST Tue Nov 18 2025

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the north-
facing beaches in Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the eastern half of
St. Croix through Wednesday afternoon.

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms due a surface trough will
increase the flooding and lightning risk today, particularly
over western and northeastern Puerto Rico.

* Passing showers will bring periods of moderate to locally heavy
rain across the US Virgin Islands throughout the day.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 348 AM AST Tue Nov 18 2025

Afternoon convection linger into the early evening hours across
Arecibo, leaving rainfall accumulations of just over one inch.
Additionally, the frequency of showers increased along the east, with
nearly half an inch collected. Later in the overnight hours, showers
also moved across the Virgin Islands. The heaviest activity was
observed over eastern St. Croix, and also in St. John. Elsewhere,
skies were mostly clear. Temperatures dropped into the low 60s or
even a tad cooler in the mountains of Puerto Rico, with lows in the
low and mid 70s in the coastal areas of the U.S. Caribbean
territories.

A surface trough moving across the region today will bring
increasing moisture to the islands, with a moderate easterly breeze
at the surface and southeast winds higher up steering showers and
storms toward the west and west-northwest. Despite a weakening mid-
level ridge, temperatures aloft will continue to cool ahead of the
approaching mid- to upper-level trough, marking the onset of an
unstable period beginning this afternoon. This setup will make today
the wettest day of the period, with showers and isolated to locally
scattered thunderstorms clustering across the central and western
interior of Puerto Rico, with the strongest activity expected over
the western hills. Additional pockets of heavy rain may also develop
downwind of Sierra de Luquillo and the local islands, affecting
parts of the San Juan metro area. Heavy downpours could cause
localized flooding, with minor flooding or ponding of water possible
in low-lying or poorly drained areas. Temperatures will remain near
normal, with a few urban locations briefly reaching around 90°F.
Hazard Summary for Today: Expect a low to locally moderate flooding
risk from heavy downpours and isolated to locally scattered
lightning strike risk with thunderstorms.

The mid-to upper-level trough will continue to move in tonight,
keeping conditions unstable as colder mid-level temperatures
persist. Once the trough axis moves through on Thursday morning,
warming aloft and very dry air will quickly stabilize the
atmosphere. At the surface, high pressure moving into the western
Atlantic will strengthen local winds and shift them to the northeast
tonight into Wednesday, producing a fresh breeze. On Thursday, a
weak surface trough east of the Leeward Islands will help maintain
the north-to-northeast flow, although at more moderate intensities.
This pattern will bring in some moisture early on but will also push
the existing moisture plume southward, allowing much drier and
slightly cooler air to settle in later in the period. Moisture will
be the main factor influencing rainfall, with levels rising slightly
above normal tonight, returning to typical values Wednesday morning,
and then steadily falling to well below normal by late Thursday.
Overall, showers and thunderstorms will be more limited on
Wednesday, with only a few brief storms possible, and by Thursday
the weather will become mostly stable with little to no thunder
expected. Despite the drying trend, a passing trade wind showers may
still occur overnight, even during the driest periods, due to the
steady northeast flow. Cooler temperatures near the surface will
continue and may bring the first hint of a “friito navideno” feel
later in the week. Hazard Summary for Tonight through Thursday: A
limited flooding and lightning risk from locally heavy downpours
produced by a few thunderstorms on tonight into Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 348 AM AST Tue Nov 18 2025

The long-term forecast remains on track, with mostly fair conditions
for the upcoming weekend, becoming variable early next week. A
surface high pressure is still expected to build over the Western
Atlantic by Friday, promoting northeasterly winds through most of
the period. As a drier air mass should filter into the region, the
latest deterministic guidance from the GFS and ECMWF continues to
suggest PWAT values mostly below climatological normal (1.2 - 1.4
inches), with a few members opting for more seasonal values (1.4 -
1.6 inches). A mid-level ridge should also establish, warming 500 mb
temperatures (around -5.5 degrees Celsius), and promoting stability
aloft and limiting deep convection activity. Additionally, the
Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) suggests a low potential of thunderstorm
development across the CWA. As mentioned in the previous discussion,
the most likely scenario would be passing showers over windward
sections in the late night and morning, with limited afternoon
convection over the mountain ranges and southwestern portions of
Puerto Rico. Although rainfall accumulations should not present a
flooding threat, expect ponding of water over roadways, urban, and
poorly drained areas. On Monday and Tuesday, PWAT values are
expected to increase to more seasonal levels due to patches of
moisture moving across the CWA, resulting in an increased frequency
of showers. Nevertheless, no significant flooding or lightning risk
is expected across the region.

Once again, cooler temperatures are likely across the CWA during the
forecast period, as the latest guidance keeps suggesting a fall in
925 mb temperatures, well below normal. Under a northeast wind flow,
the heat threat will remain low throughout the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 348 AM AST Tue Nov 18 2025

SHRA and iso TSRA are occurring near TJSJ and USVI terminals and
will continue at times thru the prd. Aftn convection will expand
toward TJBQ and TJPS, and all sites may experience brief MVFR due to
mtn obsc and reduced VIS. SHRA will decrease aft 18/22Z but may
linger near TJSJ and USVI terminals overnight. Winds will remain
LGT/CALM and VRB early, increase to 8–12 kt btwn 18/13Z–18/22Z, then
return to LGT/VRB overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM AST Tue Nov 18 2025

Winds from the east will increase and become moderate today,
shifting from the northeast by Wednesday night. The approach of a
surface trough will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms across
the local water and passages, likely to generate localized hazardous
marine conditions for small craft. Pulses of a north northeasterly
swell will continue to spread across the Atlantic waters and local
passages through Wednesday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 348 AM AST Tue Nov 18 2025

No changes were introduced to the beach forecast. Pulses of the
northerly-northeasterly swell will continue to spread across the
Atlantic waters and passages, promoting hazardous beach
conditions. Hence, the high risk of rip currents remains for the
northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra,
and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands through Wednesday
evening. Visitors and residents are encouraged to check the beach
forecast before going, heed the advice of the flag warning system,
and always swim near a lifeguard.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
450 AM AST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 333 AM AST Wed Nov 19 2025

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the north-
facing beaches in Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the eastern half of
St. Croix through this afternoon.

* Afternoon convection will elevate flooding and lightning risk
over portions of western and southwestern Puerto Rico.

* Passing showers and isolated thunderstorms will bring periods of
heavy rainfall across the U.S. Virgin islands and eastern Puerto
Rico during the morning hours.

* Drier air and cooler temperatures are anticipated by Thursday
into the weekend.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 333 AM AST Wed Nov 19 2025

Light to moderate showers prevailed across the local waters during
the night and early morning hours, with some of those showers
briefly streaming across some coastal sectors. Radar estimated
rainfall since midnight reported minimal accumulations over northern
coastal sectors of Puerto Rico, southeastern to eastern interior PR
(up to 0.6 in), Vieques, and coastal sectors of the USVI (around
0.01 in). Minimum temperatures were in the low to mid 70s across
most lower elevations of Puerto Rico, with some coastal and urban
stations reporting lows in the upper 70s. Interior sectors of Puerto
Rico, where patchy fog was also detected, reported minimum
temperatures in the low 60s. Minimum temperatures were in the
upper 70s to low 80s at the USVI, Vieques and Culebra.

For today, another variable weather pattern is forecast across the
islands, mostly under an easterly wind flow. At the surface, there
is an increase in trapped moisture associated with a surface
disturbance just east of the region. According to moisture-derived
satellite imagery, precipitable water values will range between 2.0
and 2.2 inches, which are slightly above climatological normals.
This significant increase in cloudiness and moisture will support
another variable weather day, with cloudiness and passing showers
along eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours, followed by
afternoon convection with thunderstorm activity. Veering winds
during the day will focus shower activity across the western
interior into the southwestern areas as they gradually become more
northeasterly. Widespread shower activity in other areas will depend
entirely on the influence of the mid-level ridge, which may inhibit
the development of stronger vertical showers.

Conditions will rapidly change from Thursday into Friday. At the
surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic, together with
the influence of an induced surface trough from an upper-level
trough just north of the islands, will result in northeasterly
winds. Under this evolving pattern, drier air will filter into the
islands. According to global model guidance, precipitable water
values will drop drastically to around 1.1 inches, resulting in
mostly clear skies with minimal shower activity each day. A
different pattern is expected across the mid to upper levels, as a
trough erodes the mid-level ridge and enhances instability with
colder temperatures in the -8 to -7 degree range. Therefore,
although not enough moisture will be present, some isolated showers
cannot be ruled out, especially across southwestern Puerto Rico and
across northeastern areas during the evening and morning hours.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 333 AM AST Wed Nov 19 2025

Confidence remains high for the upcoming weekend forecast, with
variability for the first part of the workweek. A surface high
pressure building over the western Atlantic will promote
northeasterly winds through most of the period. Saturday is
anticipated to be the “driest” day of the long- term, as a cold,
drier airmass filters into the region. From the latest model
solutions, Precipitable Water (PWAT) values should drop below
normal (1.0 - 1.2 inches), with some members suggesting values
below the 25th percentile (below 1.0 inch). In terms of
instability, with the presence of a mid-level ridge lingering
through the period, thunderstorm activity will likely remain
limited. Additionally, the Galvez- Davison Index (GDI) keeps
suggesting a potential for isolated shallow convection. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, patches of moisture are
still likely to arrive by early Monday, with PWAT values expected
to increase but remain below climatological normal (likely between
1.2 and 1.4 inches, with a low chance of reaching 1.6 inches).
The most likely scenario remains, with showers moving into
windward sections of the local islands each night into the
morning, with afternoon convection over the mountain ranges into
southwestern Puerto Rico. Under this weather pattern, rainfall
accumulations may not necessarily bring significant flood and
lightning potential.

As mentioned in previous discussions, the fall in temperatures is
expected to continue, with 925 mb temperatures remaining below
climatological normal, with Saturday being the coolest day of the
period. Once again, the heat threat will remain low for the rest of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 333 AM AST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR conditions will remain across all TAF sites during the
period. Winds will remain from the E veering from the NE at around
19/18Z up to 15 knots with gusty winds near strong TSRA and coastal
areas. Some brief MVFR conditions are possible across TJBQ and TJPS
from 19/16Z to 19/22Z due to SHRA and TSRA lowering cigs and with a
reduction in VIS. VCSH are expected along most of the eastern TAF
sides.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM AST Wed Nov 19 2025

A surface trough will continue to bring showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the local waters and passages today, likely
generating localized hazardous conditions for small craft.
Moderate easterly winds will persist through Wednesday night
before shifting to the northeast as a surface trough moves east of
the Leeward Islands. Pulses of a north- northeasterly swell will
continue to spread across the Atlantic waters and local passages
today, fading late tonight.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 333 AM AST Wed Nov 19 2025

Pulses of the north-northeasterly continue to arrive across the
CWA, promoting hazardous conditions for beachgoers along northern
and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St. Croix in the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Hence, the high risk of rip currents remains
in effect for the aforementioned areas through at least Wednesday
afternoon. If conditions persist, the risk may be extended. As
the swell continues to spread and fade, beach conditions will
improve by Thursday, with a moderate risk of rip currents across
the northern and eastern beaches of PR, Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Nevertheless, beachgoers are encouraged to
swim near a lifeguard as life-threatening rip currents are
possible along the surf zone.

Aside from rip currents, beachgoers should be also aware of other
potential hazards such as lightning and gusty winds due to shower
and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and tomorrow that may
move over coastal areas. If thunder roars, stay indoors!

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
504 AM AST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 458 AM AST Thu Nov 20 2025

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected to form along the
north-facing beaches in Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the eastern
half of St. Croix.

* Residents and visitors in the USVI and PR can expect pleasant
temperatures as a cooling trend will prevail, especially from
Friday into next week.

* There is a slight risk of afternoon thunderstorms between today
and tomorrow (Friday).

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 458 AM AST Thu Nov 20 2025

An active weather pattern affected the region overnight, driven by a
passing trough aloft and abundant moisture associated with the
remnants of an old frontal boundary pushed southward by persistent
NE winds. Doppler radar showed scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms, mainly over the surrounding waters, with
some of this activity spreading into northern and eastern Puerto
Rico, as well as Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Since last evening, rainfall accumulations peaked near one inch in
very isolated areas of eastern Puerto Rico; however, no flooding
impacts were reported. Temperatures fell into the mid-70s across
lower elevations and the low-60s over higher terrain. Winds over
land were generally light to calm and variable through the night.

A broad polar trough over the western–central Atlantic continues to
send shortwave energy across the northeastern Caribbean. The first
shortwave will cross the region today, maintaining cooler-than-
normal mid-level temperatures and enhancing instability ahead of and
along the wave axis. Behind it, strengthening upper-level winds will
support a developing jet streak later today. At the surface, a
trough to the east-northeast and high pressure over the western
Atlantic will maintain NNE to NE trades, helping push the remnants
of an old frontal boundary southward toward the region. PWAT values
will remain near seasonal levels through the morning and early
afternoon, and combined with this moisture and lingering instability
will support scattered to locally numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly across southwestern Puerto Rico. Across the
U.S. Virgin Islands, trade-wind showers and a few thunderstorms may
also affect the area at times. The main hazards today are lightning
and locally excessive rainfall, with a limited to locally elevated
flooding risk where convection persists.

A second, deeper shortwave is forecast to drop farther south on
Friday, bringing another brief period of cooling aloft before
quickly shifting east of the region. Once this wave clears,
subsidence and significant drying will dominate, with steady mid-
level warming and PWATs dropping below and well below typical values
between Friday evening and Saturday. A surface trough and a
strengthening high over the western Atlantic will reinforce NE trade-
wind flow, pushing increasingly drier air over the region. At the
same time, mid-level ridging will gradually strengthen the trade-
wind cap inversion, creating increasingly unfavorable conditions for
deep convection. Together, these features will mark the beginning of
a more stable and much drier period. Isolated nocturnal and early-
morning trade-wind showers will still occur due to shallow
instability from mild cold-air advection over warm waters, but
measurable rainfall will remain limited. Afternoon convection will
also be sharply reduced. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler
over the next few days, with daytime highs moderated by persistent
NE winds and overnight lows influenced by clearer skies. These
conditions may bring the first hint of a “friíto navideño” by Friday
into the weekend. Overall, hazard risks will decrease significantly,
with only a limited risk of thunderstorms or flooding on Friday and
little to no risk on Saturday.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 458 AM AST Thu Nov 20 2025

Forecast confidence remains low to moderate due to notable
discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF regarding the evolution of
mid- to upper-level features early next week. These differences
directly affect expectations for instability and convective
coverage across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The GFS suggests a short-wave trough replacing the zonal flow
aloft Sunday into Monday, followed by additional amplification on
Tuesday. This scenario would shift a mid-level ridge westward over
the Bahamas/Cuba, placing PR/USVI between the ridge to the west
and a deepening trough to the east, favoring increased upper-level
divergence and a more unstable environment. Under this
configuration, the probability of scattered afternoon convection
and isolated thunderstorms would be moderate (20-40%), peaking
Tuesday through the middle of the week.

In contrast, the ECMWF maintains a more stable pattern, with
zonal flow on Sunday and only weak short-wave perturbations on
Monday–Tuesday. Notably, the model retains the mid-level ridge,
supporting dry air intrusions and subsidence that would limit
convective development. Under this solution, afternoon showers
would be more isolated (20–30%), primarily driven by local sea-
breeze and orographic effects. Given these differences, the
forecast leans on a climatological trade- wind pattern. Therefore,
expect periodic patches of moisture embedded in the trades
producing passing showers across the local waters, USVI, and
windward/eastern Puerto Rico. Each afternoon, isolated to
scattered convection (mainly interior and western PR) remains
possible, but the probability of thunderstorms stays low to
moderate (10–30%), highest if the GFS scenario materializes.

Overall, no strong signal is emerging for widespread rainfall or a
significant instability event at this time, and uncertainty
remains elevated until better model consensus develops.

Local temperatures will continue to cool, remaining slightly below
normal, around the 25th percentile compared to November
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 AM AST Thu Nov 20 2025

SHRA/iso TSRA will continue ovr the waters and nr TJSJ/USVI tmnls
thru the prd. Aftn CNVTN will expand toward TJPS, while SHRA may
persist at othr tmnls. Brief MVFR psbl due to MTN OBSC/reduced VIS,
mainly at TJPS/TJBQ. SHRA will dcrs aft 20/22Z but may linger nr
TJSJ/USVI ovrngt. Although overall steering flow remains NE, SFC
winds will be LGT/CALM and VRB early, bcmg 10–15 kt btwn 20/13–22Z,
then rtnng to LGT/VRB ovrngt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 458 AM AST Thu Nov 20 2025

A long period north-northeasterly swell will continue to move across
the local waters through this evening. An upper-level short-wave
trough will help to promote afternoon thunderstorms across the Mona
Passage and Caribbean waters. The remnants of the frontal boundary
will slowly dissipate across the western Atlantic through Friday,
when a surface high is expected to build over the region. This high
pressure will promote moderate trade winds from the upcoming weekend
into early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 458 AM AST Thu Nov 20 2025

Based on buoy observations, the high risk of rip currents has
been extended through this evening due to lingering energy from a
fading north-northeasterly swell with a period of 11 to 13
seconds. This situation can lead to life-threatening rip currents,
particularly along the exposed north and east-facing beaches in
Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the eastern half of St. Croix. The rip
current risk is forecast to improve, becoming moderate over the
weekend and into early next week. However, another north-easterly
swell is likely to increase the risk to high levels again by
Tuesday.

Beachgoers are strongly encouraged to swim near a lifeguard, as
life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone. For
location-specific information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

Additionally, beachgoers should be aware of other potential
hazards, such as lightning and gusty winds, due to showers and
thunderstorm activity expected this afternoon and tomorrow
(Friday) in coastal areas. Remember: If thunder roars, go indoors!

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
424 AM AST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 423 AM AST Fri Nov 21 2025

* Pleasant temperatures will prevail across the USVI and PR from
today through early next week.

* One or two thunderstorms will form this afternoon, especially
near the southwest quadrant of PR.

* The north- and east-facing beaches of PR and the USVI will have
a moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday evening, then
drop to low from Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 423 AM AST Fri Nov 21 2025

A passing trough aloft, lingering moisture, and cooler northeast
winds helped showers develop overnight and drift southwest across
the local waters. Radar showed scattered showers mainly over the
Atlantic, with some of this activity moving into northern and
eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern United States Virgin
Islands. Since last evening, around one half inch of rain fell in an
isolated spot in northeastern Puerto Rico. Overnight temperatures
dropped into the mid 70s across lower elevations and the low 60s in
the mountains, with a few upper 50s near Jayuya. These colder
readings provided an early hint of the anticipated episode of Friíto
Navideño. Winds over land were light and variable through the night.

A persistent moderate northeast breeze will continue to bring
passing trade wind showers throughout the day, although they will be
more frequent early this morning. A shortwave trough moving across
the area will keep slightly cooler air aloft through early
afternoon, supporting a few afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly over southwestern Puerto Rico. Drier air will
begin filtering in later this afternoon and will quickly shut down
most activity. Highs will be slightly cooler than recent days,
reaching the low to mid 80s across coastal and urban areas, further
signaling the Friíto Navideño expected to persist through at least
Saturday. Today is the only period with any meaningful weather risk,
with isolated lightning and minor flooding possible in afternoon
storms.

Much drier and more stable air will move in as high pressure builds
from the west, sharply reducing shower and thunderstorm activity
tonight through Sunday. Saturday will be mostly dry with little to
no rainfall expected. On Sunday, slightly patchier moisture may
bring a few additional showers to windward areas, drifting inland at
times and allowing for scattered showers to develop in the
afternoon, but rainfall amounts will remain low. Temperatures will
continue a cooling trend, with highs likely in the low 80s and some
higher terrain barely warming to around 70 degrees. Lows may dip
into the mid 50s in the highest elevations during clearer nights.
Weather related risks will remain minimal through the weekend.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 423 AM AST Fri Nov 21 2025

Model guidance is trending toward greater consensus, suggesting a
potential climatological pattern across the Northeast Caribbean,
including Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. However, a short-
wave trough aloft will swing by the region from the west,
increasing the potential for afternoon convection (30-50 percent
chance of precipitation), especially around Monday afternoon into
the evening along the Cordillera Central and crossing the USVI.

From Tuesday into Thursday, there is a better agreement that high
pressure at mid levels will promote subsidence and a trade wind
inversion over the region, trapping all the moisture at low
levels. Thus, we expect a mixture of sunshine and clouds, with
occasional patches of moisture embedded in the trades bringing
showery weather over the windward locations of PR and the USVI.
However, this activity does not represent a flooding threat for
the region.

Temperatures across the islands are expected to continue cooling.
Model forecasts suggest that temperatures at 925 mb will be
slightly below normal, roughly at the 25th percentile compared to
typical November conditions. However, there may be instances,
particularly during peak heating in the afternoon, when
temperatures can reach near-normal levels (around the 50th
percentile).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 423 AM AST Fri Nov 21 2025

Mostly VFR thru the prd with very ltd SHRA/TSRA. VCSH at TJSJ/USVI
tmnls thru 21/14Z and again aft 21/23Z. Brief VCTS psbl nr TJPS
21/17–20Z. Isold brief MVFR psbl due to MTN OBSC/REDUCED VIS, but
confidence remains low. SFC winds LGT/CALM/VRB early, bcmg NE 10–14
kt aft 21/14Z, with local S/B influences at TJBQ/TJPS causing VRB or
onshore flow at times, then rtnng LGT/VRB aft sunset. Gen steering
flow NE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 423 AM AST Fri Nov 21 2025

A surface high pressure will build over the western Atlantic
during the next few days, promoting moderate to fresh trade winds
from late tonight into the weekend. A surface low over the eastern
Atlantic will generate pulses of long period northeasterly swells,
arriving around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Afternoon
thunderstorms will form across southwestern Puerto Rico today.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 423 AM AST Fri Nov 21 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will prevail for the north and
east-facing beaches in PR and the USVI through at least late
Saturday night. The risk is forecast to be low from Sunday to
Tuesday evening. Then, another long-period northeasterly swell
will increase the risk to moderate or high from late Tuesday night
into the middle of next week.

Additionally, beachgoers should be aware of other potential
hazards, such as lightning and gusty winds, due to showers and
thunderstorm activity expected this afternoon, especially near the
southwest coast of PR. Remember: If thunder roars, go indoors!

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
318 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

* Pleasant temperatures, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, will
prevail across the USVI and PR throughout the weekend.

* The north- and east-facing beaches of PR and the USVI will have
a moderate risk of rip currents through this evening, then drop
to low from Sunday through Tuesday evening.

* Occasional periods of showery weather will affect mainly the
windward locations of PR and the USVI at times.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 314 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

A few showers moved inland from the surrounding waters during the
overnight hours, mainly affecting portions of northeastern Puerto
Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Although
coverage was limited, radar estimates show very isolated rainfall
totals close to one half inch since sunset across parts of
northeastern Puerto Rico. Outside of these brief showers, conditions
were mostly quiet and skies stayed mostly clear. Overnight
temperatures were one to three degrees cooler than last night,
dipping into the mid-70s across coastal and urban areas, and into
the low 60s and upper 50s in the higher elevations, giving another
early taste of Friito Navideno. Winds over land remained light and
variable throughout the night.

Today will be an excellent weather day for outdoor activities in
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Mostly sunny, dry, and
comfortable conditions are expected. Only a few brief morning trade
wind showers may reach northern and eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra,
and the northern USVI as cool northeast winds move over warmer
waters. The rest of the day will remain stable with only very
limited, brief afternoon showers mainly over southwestern Puerto
Rico. Cooler than normal temperatures will continue, and no hazard
risks are expected.

Passing showers will move through at times tonight and into early
Sunday across windward areas, but Sunday will remain a generally dry
and favorable day for outdoor plans. On Monday, a patchy weather
pattern is expected as pockets of moisture move across the region.
Although no significant hazards are expected, brief heavy showers
may develop if moist low levels and slightly unstable mid levels
line up, but coverage will stay limited. A moderate northeast breeze
will continue through Monday morning and increase to a fresh breeze
Monday afternoon as the pressure gradient strengthens. Confidence in
the forecast remains high, with most areas staying dry through
Sunday and only spotty showers possibly affecting outdoor activities
on Monday.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 314 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

Model guidance indicates a likelihood of a zonal upper-level flow
across the region between Tuesday and Wednesday. There is also a
moderate chance that an upper-level trough amplifying from the
Atlantic into the northeast Caribbean will push westward or weaken
the mid-level ridge. If this occurs, low-level moisture may rise
to around 700 mb as the trade-wind inversion weakens.

Overall, confidence is moderate to high that the long-term
pattern will gradually shift toward a more advective regime. A
surface high-pressure system is likely to migrate from the western
Atlantic on Tuesday to the central Atlantic by Friday, which
should promote breezy trade winds from Tuesday onward. Under this
pattern, patches of moisture embedded in the trades have a
moderate chance of producing occasional periods of showery
weather.

Temperatures across the islands are expected to continue cooling.
Model forecasts suggest that 925-mb temperatures will be slightly
below normal, roughly at the 25th percentile compared to typical
November conditions. However, there may be periods, particularly
during peak afternoon heating, when temperatures reach near-normal
levels, around the 50th percentile.

The windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
will experience pleasant temperatures, with a moderate chance of
passing showers throughout the period. There is also a slight to
moderate chance of afternoon showers each day across the interior
and western Puerto Rico, with the highest probability on Tuesday
or Wednesday. The most likely time for showers across the windward
areas of Puerto Rico and the USVI will be overnight and early
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 314 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

Prevailing VFR thru the prd with only brief VCSH at TJSJ/USVI thru
22/14Z and psbl nr TJPS 22/17–20Z. MVFR chances are very low and
impacts unlikely. Sfc winds LGT/VRB, bcmg NE 10–14 kt aft 22/14Z,
then rtn LGT/VRB aft sunset. Steering flow fm the NE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic and a surface trough
across the central Atlantic will maintain moderate trade winds
through the weekend. By Sunday and Monday, a surface low and its
cold front will interact with the high pressure, weakening the
local pressure gradient and producing gentle to moderate easterly
winds. Another high pressure will then build over the western
Atlantic and move into the central Atlantic from Monday through
Thursday. This will tighten the pressure gradient again,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and choppy seas from
Tuesday into mid-week. Thus, expect confused seas due to locally
choppy conditions combined with a long-period northeasterly swell
arriving between Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 314 AM AST Sat Nov 22 2025

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the north and east-
facing beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through
this evening. The risk is expected to decrease to low from Sunday
to Tuesday morning. However, starting Tuesday evening, the risk is
forecasted to rise back to moderate due to increasing winds and
confused sea conditions.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

* Pleasant temperatures and a moderate breeze will make conditions
comfortable overall, however, isolated to scattered afternoon
showers are expected to develop mainly over southwest Puerto
Rico without flooding concerns.

* Across the US Virgin Island, isolated showers during the nights
and mornings, then mostly pleasant conditions.

* A breezier pattern is expected by midweek, which will enhance
occasional trade-wind showers and bring a moderate to high chance
of deteriorating marine and coastal conditions.

* Low risk of rip currents today and Monday, increasing to moderate
Tuesday onward due to increasing winds and a northeasterly swell.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

A few showers lingered over southwestern Puerto Rico during the
early evening, leaving around a quarter of an inch in localized
spots. Later in the night, brief showers moved in from the
surrounding waters and focused mainly over northern Puerto Rico,
with totals generally below a quarter of an inch. Outside of these
short-lived showers, conditions were mostly quiet and skies
remained mostly clear. Temperatures were cool once again, with
coastal and urban areas running a bit warmer than last night and
the higher elevations dipping into the low 60s and upper 50s.
Winds over land stayed light and variable throughout the night.

Moist and dry patches will continue to move across the region today
within the ongoing east-northeast trade wind pattern, producing
rapid PWAT fluctuations. Pleasant temperatures and a moderate breeze
will make conditions comfortable overall. Strong mid-level ridging
and dry air aloft will maintain a stable environment, with most
moisture confined to the lower levels, so any morning showers will
be short-lived. During the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers
may develop where conditions become favorable, mainly over southwest
Puerto Rico. Overall, today stands out as one of the first genuinely
low-hazard weather days in quite some time, with no significant
impacts anticipated.

Tonight through Tuesday night, the patchy pattern will continue,
with more frequent PWAT fluctuations as east-northeast winds
strengthen from moderate to fresh levels by Monday and become
stronger by Tuesday. This transition will occur as a high pressure
builds over the western Atlantic and tightens the local pressure
gradient, bringing a limited risk for stronger non-thunderstorm wind
gusts Monday into Tuesday, especially across exposed coastal areas
and higher elevations. Even as moisture pockets move through, the
overall atmosphere will remain on the dry side. A corridor of
stronger upper-level winds will develop over the area while a weak
disturbance approaches aloft, allowing for a slight increase in
instability. If favorable conditions align, brief heavy showers or
an isolated thunderstorm could develop, mainly Tuesday afternoon
across southwestern Puerto Rico. Otherwise, the pattern favors quick
overnight and early-morning showers, followed by very localized
isolated to scattered afternoon showers each day where lingering
moisture, daytime heating, and local effects come together. Pleasant
temperatures will continue through the period.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

The long-term period will feature patches of moisture embedded
within the trade winds, bringing a moderate chance of occasional
showery weather and breezy conditions. By midweek, a surface high-
pressure system will be located over the central Atlantic. Aloft,
an upper-level trough will shift eastward, allowing ridging to
build into the region. PWAT guidance indicates values remaining
within the normal to below-normal range through the period, based
on November climatology.

Windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands can
expect pleasant a low to moderate chance of passing showers
throughout the week. There will also be a slight to moderate
chance of afternoon showers each day across the interior and
western portions of Puerto Rico.

By the weekend, another high-pressure system building over the
western Atlantic will further tighten the pressure gradient,
resulting in even breezier conditions. A gradual increase in PWAT
values may lead to higher rain chances, although flooding impacts
are not anticipated.

Model guidance suggests that 925-mb temperatures will remain in
the normal to below-normal range for this time of year, supporting
a continued transition toward more pleasant temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

Prevailing VFR thru the prd with only brief VCSH at TJSJ thru
23/13Z and psbl nr TJPS 23/17–20Z. MVFR chances are very low and
impacts unlikely. Sfc winds LGT/VRB, bcmg NE 10–14 kt aft 23/14Z,
then rtn LGT/VRB aft sunset. Steering flow fm the NE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic, along with a surface
trough across the central Atlantic, will maintain gentle to
moderate east to northeast winds today. Another high-pressure
system will then build over the western Atlantic and move into the
central Atlantic from early week through Thursday. This will
tighten the pressure gradient once again, supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds and choppy seas from Tuesday onward. As a
result, expect confused seas due to the combination of locally
choppy conditions and a long-period northeasterly swell arriving
between Tuesday and Wednesday. Small craft operators will likely
need to exercise caution during that period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 441 AM AST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today, there is a low risk of rip currents along all local beaches
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Keep in mind that
even with a low risk, life- threatening rip currents can still
occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. These conditions are
expected to prevail through early Tuesday. However, beginning
Tuesday evening, the risk is anticipated to rise to moderate due
to increasing winds and confused seas.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
422 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 417 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

* Pleasant temperatures, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, will
prevail across the USVI and PR throughout the week.

* Breezy trade winds will prevail from Tuesday onward, becoming
windy by the upcoming weekend.

* Occasional periods of showery weather will affect mainly the
windward locations of PR and the USVI at times.

* Low risk of rip currents today, increasing to moderate on
Tuesday evening and Wednesday.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 417 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

Trade-wind showers moved across portions of northwest, east, and
southeast Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, overnight. Western Puerto Rico remained mostly cloudy
from late Sunday night into early Monday morning. During the early
morning hours today, skies gradually cleared, leaving mostly
clear skies conditions with a few trade-wind clouds. However,
patches with clouds moved quickly over the St Thomas, St. John and
St Croix. The clear skies allowed overnight cooling to bring
temperatures into the low to mid 70s across coastal areas and
into the low 60s, or slightly lower, in the mountains and valleys.
Winds were mainly from the northeast with land breeze variations.

A zonal flow aloft is expected to prevail across the islands
today. An upper-level shortwave trough will move across the
northeastern Caribbean between late tonight and Tuesday, while the
mid-level ridge shifts westward toward the Cuba/Bahamas region.
If this pattern materializes, the trade-wind inversion will likely
weaken, allowing low-level moisture to rise to around 700 mb or
higher between Tuesday morning and afternoon.

Confidence is moderate/high that the ridge pattern will weaken
further on Wednesday as a polar trough moves north of the region,
supporting a jet streak of 57 to 70 mph over portions of the
local area from early Wednesday morning into the afternoon.

At the surface, high pressure exiting the U.S. Eastern Seaboard this
afternoon will continue pushing a frontal boundary from the western
Atlantic into the central Atlantic by Tuesday. As this occurs, the
local pressure gradient will likely tighten, promoting an increase
in winds as early as Tuesday afternoon and most likely by Wednesday.

Today, remnants of an old boundary will move across the area,
bringing a moderate (30 to 50%) to high (60%) chance of passing
showers across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. These showers may spread into the interior and
southwest Puerto Rico by late morning into the afternoon,
maintaining a moderate/high chance (30 to 60%) of rainfall.
Conditions should dry out by this evening, but occasional patches
of moisture will sustain a moderate chance (30 to 50%) of showers
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico eastern third.

An advective trade-wind pattern will dominate over the short term.
This supports a slight (10 to 20%) to moderate (30 to 50%) chance
of showers along the USVI and PR's windward areas, and a
slight/moderate chance (20 to 50%) of afternoon showers over the
interior and southwest Puerto Rico each day.

Temperatures will continue a cooling trend through midweek, with
model guidance showing 925-mb temperatures near the 25th percentile
for November climatology from today through the middle of the week
and into the long term.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 417 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

The long-term period will primarily feature breezy to locally
windy conditions, along with patches of moisture embedded within
the trade winds. These factors will bring a moderate likelihood of
occasional showers. PWAT guidance indicates values remaining near
to slightly below normal for November based on climatological
data.

By Thursday into Friday, the jet streak will shift eastward and
away from the area, while the ridging pattern weakens as a polar
trough moves across the central Atlantic.From Saturday into
early next week, a high-pressure system building over the western
Atlantic will further tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in
stronger breezes. The breeziest days appear to be Sunday and
Monday. A gradual increase in PWAT values may enhance rain
chances, although flooding concerns are not anticipated.

Model guidance suggests that 925-mb temperatures will remain
within the normal to below-normal range for this time of year,
supporting the ongoing transition toward more comfortable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 417 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

Trade wind -SHRA/SHRA will occasionally move across local TAFs
(JSJ/IST/ISX) throughout the forecast period. This SHRA/-SHRA will
reach JPS between 24/15-22z, when mountain obsc will form along
the Cordillera Central. Although we expect VFR conds, some of
these SHRA will result in brief MVFR conds by limiting VIS or
increasing Ceilings btwn FL022-FL040. Winds will prevail calm to
light and VRB thru 24/13z, then will continue from the ENE at
10-15 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

High pressure building over the western Atlantic, combined with a
surface trough across the central Atlantic, will maintain gentle
to moderate east to northeast winds today. As the high pressure
system moves into the central Atlantic through mid-week, the
pressure gradient will tighten, promoting moderate to locally
fresh trade winds from tonight or Tuesday onward. As a result,
expect confused seas caused by a mix of locally choppy conditions
and a brief long-period northeasterly swell arriving between
Tuesday and Wednesday. Small craft operators will likely need to
exercise caution, particularly across the offshore waters and
local Caribbean passages for most of the forecast period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 417 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

The risk of rip currents remains low today along all local
beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Remember that
even with a low risk, life-threatening rip currents can still
occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

Conditions are expected to change on Tuesday evening, with the
risk increasing to moderate through Wednesday due to strengthening
winds and a brief northeasterly swell. By Thursday and Friday,
the risk is expected to become high along the north-facing
beaches of the islands.