Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Cpv17]

Look at what the GFS has been doing. Oklahoma is gonna be a freeze box for a couple of days. This is not LaLaland this is later this week that's had some substantial changes.

https://i.imgur.com/Gbhmwsr.gif

https://i.imgur.com/uC2Qrp0.png

That’s gonna be insanely cold for Iowa, holy crap.

[Ntxw]

Another cold 1045mb+ high coming down behind it, same trajectory. The dome of cold is centered in Chicago but expansive enough I think warm ups will be muted or shortened followed by below normal, again the closer you are to that center of cold gravity. -WPO.

[Brent]

GFS suddenly has freezing temps to the coast single digits just east of me

[Ntxw]

If you remember the first cold wave in mid November it was similar path as these coming waves, so I guess we did get shown the hand early. So temps/anomalies a little colder than that given date.

[Ntxw]

GFS suddenly has freezing temps to the coast single digits just east of me

It's also getting into the true medium range (144 or less is my metric) so there's still plenty of time changes to occur.

[Brent]

There's a clear trend towards Texas if you run the loop

Still a week out who knows it could be over us by then

[Ntxw]

There's a clear trend towards Texas if you run the loop

Still a week out who knows it could be over us by then

Dry, but having a 1040mb+ overhead is ideal for radiational cooling. Also relative to averages that's pretty decent amount of cold, it's likely to outdo the positive anomalies for sure. It's late December when you see the extreme numbers from the blasts of the past.

[Stratton23]

Even in the long range the GFS has trended colder, also looks like a complete split of the PV on the GFS

[rwfromkansas]

Some interesting changes. Just want more chances to get precip. Looking so far like a dry cold so far.

[Stratton23]

Euro also has another piece of the PV setting up over hudson bay in the long range, no point in looking at surface temperatures this far out and or any troughs, but things are starting to look a little more interesting post December 15/16th

[Ntxw]

Been different scenes today across some parts of the state. Northeastern part of the state and Oklahoma have been socked in fog, mist, and chill while it's mild and warm to the west and south.

[gpsnowman]

Been different scenes today across some parts of the state. Northeastern part of the state and Oklahoma have been socked in fog, mist, and chill while it's mild and warm to the west and south.

https://i.imgur.com/7Tp9AWs.png

Temp hasn't budged all morning here in DFW. Could be headed for bust territory if the clouds don't clear. Forecasted high of 59 in jeopardy. Still plenty of daylight left if the clouds do clear.

[Stratton23]

Even in the medium range, models that were showing a big warm up across the state a few days ago have trended colder, with the + PNA trying to connect with the - EPO ridge, trough has backed up west some, its truly fascinating to see how models have been way too aggressive with warm ups and the cold air/ forecast has consistently won each time, hope this kind of trend stays around the entirety of winter lol

[Ntxw]

Been different scenes today across some parts of the state. Northeastern part of the state and Oklahoma have been socked in fog, mist, and chill while it's mild and warm to the west and south.

https://i.imgur.com/7Tp9AWs.png

Temp hasn't budged all morning here in DFW. Could be headed for bust territory if the clouds don't clear. Forecasted high of 59 in jeopardy. Still plenty of daylight left if the clouds do clear.

-7.7F at the airport to begin the month, so these little things matter. It's actually one of the chilliest starts in recent memory despite the temps not ever going extreme but the lack of warmer lows we have been accustomed to has really nudged it downward.

[wxman22]

Been different scenes today across some parts of the state. Northeastern part of the state and Oklahoma have been socked in fog, mist, and chill while it's mild and warm to the west and south.

https://i.imgur.com/7Tp9AWs.png

Yep, we we're under a freezing fog advisory this morning.The fog is still very dense right now and its still in the 30's past noon.

[Cpv17]

Been different scenes today across some parts of the state. Northeastern part of the state and Oklahoma have been socked in fog, mist, and chill while it's mild and warm to the west and south.

https://i.imgur.com/7Tp9AWs.png

Yep, we we're under a freezing fog advisory this morning.The fog is still very dense right now and its still in the 30's past noon.

Pushing 70° here with mostly sunny skies, beautiful day.

[Stratton23]

Seeing some really bizarre talk in the 7-9 day range of december 1983 on X, models keep correcting back west with the trough next week and we get almost a ridge bridge connection between the + PNA and - EPO ridge to form, again thats quite a bold statement and that would be a rather quick turn around, but it does seem like things may get slightly more interesting in the medium range lol

[txtwister78]

Near 80 this afternoon. May actually hit 80 next week with a few fronts in between.

[Stratton23]

As i suspected, the models yet again correct towards cold after being too aggressive with warming things up, we do get a + PNA, but the 18z GFS still gives texas some pretty cold weather again 7-8 days from now, 1054 mb arctic high diving into montana, thats some pretty cold stuff

[Ntxw]

As i suspected, the models yet again correct towards cold after being too aggressive with warming things up, we do get a + PNA, but the 18z GFS still gives texas some pretty cold weather again 7-8 days from now, 1054 mb arctic high diving into montana, thats some pretty cold stuff

I'm interested what the guidance will do as they have been gradually shifting into more believable range. 100-144 hours is where you start to lock things in. 0z and 12z runs tomorrow will be telling. You have a great snow pack up north, and cold source they may play a role.