Texas Winter 2025-2026

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#521 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 11:21 am

Ntxw wrote:Look at what the GFS has been doing. Oklahoma is gonna be a freeze box for a couple of days. This is not LaLaland this is later this week that's had some substantial changes.

https://i.imgur.com/Gbhmwsr.gif

https://i.imgur.com/uC2Qrp0.png


That’s gonna be insanely cold for Iowa, holy crap.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#522 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 06, 2025 11:28 am

Another cold 1045mb+ high coming down behind it, same trajectory. The dome of cold is centered in Chicago but expansive enough I think warm ups will be muted or shortened followed by below normal, again the closer you are to that center of cold gravity. -WPO.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#523 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 06, 2025 11:29 am

GFS suddenly has freezing temps to the coast :spam: :lol: single digits just east of me :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#524 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 06, 2025 11:31 am

If you remember the first cold wave in mid November it was similar path as these coming waves, so I guess we did get shown the hand early. So temps/anomalies a little colder than that given date.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#525 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 06, 2025 11:34 am

Brent wrote:GFS suddenly has freezing temps to the coast :spam: :lol: single digits just east of me :eek:


It's also getting into the true medium range (144 or less is my metric) so there's still plenty of time changes to occur.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#526 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 06, 2025 11:34 am

There's a clear trend towards Texas if you run the loop

Still a week out who knows it could be over us by then :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#527 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 06, 2025 11:36 am

Brent wrote:There's a clear trend towards Texas if you run the loop

Still a week out who knows it could be over us by then :lol:


Dry, but having a 1040mb+ overhead is ideal for radiational cooling. Also relative to averages that's pretty decent amount of cold, it's likely to outdo the positive anomalies for sure. It's late December when you see the extreme numbers from the blasts of the past.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#528 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 12:03 pm

Even in the long range the GFS has trended colder, also looks like a complete split of the PV on the GFS
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#529 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Dec 06, 2025 12:50 pm

Some interesting changes. Just want more chances to get precip. Looking so far like a dry cold so far.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#530 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 1:00 pm

Euro also has another piece of the PV setting up over hudson bay in the long range, no point in looking at surface temperatures this far out and or any troughs, but things are starting to look a little more interesting post December 15/16th
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#531 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 06, 2025 1:10 pm

Been different scenes today across some parts of the state. Northeastern part of the state and Oklahoma have been socked in fog, mist, and chill while it's mild and warm to the west and south.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#532 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Dec 06, 2025 1:16 pm

Ntxw wrote:Been different scenes today across some parts of the state. Northeastern part of the state and Oklahoma have been socked in fog, mist, and chill while it's mild and warm to the west and south.

https://i.imgur.com/7Tp9AWs.png

Temp hasn't budged all morning here in DFW. Could be headed for bust territory if the clouds don't clear. Forecasted high of 59 in jeopardy. Still plenty of daylight left if the clouds do clear.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#533 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 1:24 pm

Even in the medium range, models that were showing a big warm up across the state a few days ago have trended colder, with the + PNA trying to connect with the - EPO ridge, trough has backed up west some, its truly fascinating to see how models have been way too aggressive with warm ups and the cold air/ forecast has consistently won each time, hope this kind of trend stays around the entirety of winter lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#534 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 06, 2025 1:27 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Been different scenes today across some parts of the state. Northeastern part of the state and Oklahoma have been socked in fog, mist, and chill while it's mild and warm to the west and south.

https://i.imgur.com/7Tp9AWs.png

Temp hasn't budged all morning here in DFW. Could be headed for bust territory if the clouds don't clear. Forecasted high of 59 in jeopardy. Still plenty of daylight left if the clouds do clear.


-7.7F at the airport to begin the month, so these little things matter. It's actually one of the chilliest starts in recent memory despite the temps not ever going extreme but the lack of warmer lows we have been accustomed to has really nudged it downward.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#535 Postby wxman22 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 1:44 pm

Ntxw wrote:Been different scenes today across some parts of the state. Northeastern part of the state and Oklahoma have been socked in fog, mist, and chill while it's mild and warm to the west and south.

https://i.imgur.com/7Tp9AWs.png


Yep, we we're under a freezing fog advisory this morning.The fog is still very dense right now and its still in the 30's past noon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#536 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 2:21 pm

wxman22 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Been different scenes today across some parts of the state. Northeastern part of the state and Oklahoma have been socked in fog, mist, and chill while it's mild and warm to the west and south.

https://i.imgur.com/7Tp9AWs.png


Yep, we we're under a freezing fog advisory this morning.The fog is still very dense right now and its still in the 30's past noon.


Pushing 70° here with mostly sunny skies, beautiful day.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#537 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 3:40 pm

Seeing some really bizarre talk in the 7-9 day range of december 1983 on X, models keep correcting back west with the trough next week and we get almost a ridge bridge connection between the + PNA and - EPO ridge to form, again thats quite a bold statement and that would be a rather quick turn around, but it does seem like things may get slightly more interesting in the medium range lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#538 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Dec 06, 2025 4:27 pm

Near 80 this afternoon. May actually hit 80 next week with a few fronts in between.
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