Texas Winter 2025-2026

[snownado]

18z GFS trending colder and again advancing the arctic air deeper into Texas faster with your freeze line approaching northern Bexar by midnight Saturday morning dropping from there.

18z GFS is warmer aloft, took a step in the direciton of the EURO.

It would be a massive heartbreaker for DFW too. To go from a 1" in downtown Dallas to nearly 18" in Sherman...

[Stratton23]

warm nose is significantly weaker on the 18z GFS, not as bad icing, big sleet storm for central and se texas

[Texas Snow]

lol at the contradiction of the last 2 posts

[wxman22]

18z GFS Wow!

[HockeyTx82]

lol at the contradiction of the last 2 posts

I was trying to make sense of it too.......

[snownado]

lol at the contradiction of the last 2 posts

The warm layer isn't as deep (which is good), as it's mainly focused between 800mb and 750mb, but it's still a degree or two warmer + it is slower to break down.

Translates to mostly a sleet fest for DFW while the Red River counties are bured in a foot and a half of snow (Ugh!l).

[HockeyTx82]

Model “Wheelhouse” Cheat Sheet — GFS vs Euro vs NAM

- ECMWF (Euro)
- Most accurate Days 3–7
- Best for storm tracks, large‑scale patterns, winter setups
- Loses accuracy after Day 8–10
- Not the best for short‑range local details

- GFS
- Most reliable Days 1–5
- Good for big‑picture trends and temperature patterns
- Starts wobbling after Day 6
- Known for flip‑flops and overdoing QPF/snow

- NAM
- Strongest 0–48 hours
- Great for precipitation type and mesoscale winter details
- Accuracy drops fast after 60 hours

[Ntxw]

Be in the bullseye 24 hours out, not before! The curse!

[Gotwood]

18z GFS Wow!

https://i.postimg.cc/Pqk9Tdwj/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-fh66-120.gif

Crazy the difference in Freezing rain totals from the GFS and the Euro.

[snownado]

lol at the contradiction of the last 2 posts

The warm layer isn't as deep (which is good), as it's mainly focused between 800mb and 750mb, but it's still a degree or two warmer + it is slower to break down.

Translates to mostly a sleet fest for DFW while the Red River counties are bured in a foot and a half of snow (Ugh!l).

^^^And I'm going to be cheering on Summer torches for eternity if that happens (Ouija boards, witchcraft, black magic and all).

That would be enough to break me...

[Haris]

From what I interpret, chance of seeing frozen precipitation falling from the sky is 100% north of i10 at this point. The question is banding, and ptypes and that has more to do with the phasing (if) of the low and where/when that happens. A slower elongated track will allow the lower levels to cool enough to bring snowflakes anywhere from Oklahoma to Austin by Sat/night/Sun , with light freezing rain and sleet before. Totals in this scenario for snow across NTX would be near 3-7" IMO..

However, a faster phased low near NM with a neg tilt would allow heavier freezingrain/sleet for most of Texas N of i10, and less snow except maybe briefly between Waco and Red River Sat Night/ early Sunday. Maybe 1-3" if you are lucky. Either way, get ready!!

[rwfromkansas]

Don't see a forecast like this everyday around these parts. Remember we went a quarter century without a single digit temp up until 2021?

DFW

Friday: Rain showers likely before noon, then rain showers, possibly mixed with sleet. Temperature falling to around 33 by 4pm. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday Night: Rain showers, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight, then sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday: Sleet, possibly mixed with snow showers and freezing rain. The sleet could be heavy at times. High near 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 25.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 32.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 18.

It's like they don't take into account the sleet and snow with their high temperature on Monday. I could see upper 20s, but 32?

[rwfromkansas]

18z GFS trending colder and again advancing the arctic air deeper into Texas faster with your freeze line approaching northern Bexar by midnight Saturday morning dropping from there.

18z GFS is warmer aloft, took a step in the direciton of the EURO.

It would be a massive heartbreaker for DFW too. To go from a 1" in downtown Dallas to nearly 18" in Sherman...

It there's a foot of snow an hour away, I can just drive there once the roads are good. Lol.

[txtwister78]

18z GFS trending colder and again advancing the arctic air deeper into Texas faster with your freeze line approaching northern Bexar by midnight Saturday morning dropping from there.

18z GFS is warmer aloft, took a step in the direciton of the EURO.

It would be a massive heartbreaker for DFW too. To go from a 1" in downtown Dallas to nearly 18" in Sherman...

Surface temps I'm referring to but I wouldn't worry about specifics just yet in terms of precip types up in that region until we get into high-resolution range anyway.

[Ntxw]

It's like they don't take into account the sleet and snow with their high temperature on Monday. I could see upper 20s, but 32?

Just from observation, NWS tends to follow MOS guidance a bit so there is a little climo involved. GFS MOS actually has upper 20s in the latest rendition so it's possible they will go colder in future forecast for the later period.

It's possible this is a 80-90+ hours at or below freezing period for the metroplex.

[gpsnowman]

I do believe we will get a fair amount of sleet followed by a fair amount of snow as the system takes its time exiting the state on Sunday. Would love another footer like 2010 but a lot of sleet will cut into the snow totals. Either way a winter wonderland is coming!!

[bohaiboy]

All talk about precip, but there are some brutally cold temps forecast as well. For us in Texas Hill Country, 50 miles NW of San Antonio, TWC is predicting 10F. That's only 8 degrees warmer than Snowmageddon in 2021. Filling up spare water sources in case we lose power, which means we lose water also as our subdivision in on a well water system with no backup generator.

[rwfromkansas]

Model “Wheelhouse” Cheat Sheet — GFS vs Euro vs NAM

- ECMWF (Euro)
- Most accurate Days 3–7
- Best for storm tracks, large‑scale patterns, winter setups
- Loses accuracy after Day 8–10
- Not the best for short‑range local details

- GFS
- Most reliable Days 1–5
- Good for big‑picture trends and temperature patterns
- Starts wobbling after Day 6
- Known for flip‑flops and overdoing QPF/snow

- NAM
- Strongest 0–48 hours
- Great for precipitation type and mesoscale winter details
- Accuracy drops fast after 60 hours

I wish there was a save post option on here. Lol. This would be helpful. I can save it as a bookmark I guess. On the GFS I still see a decent period where it is snow for DFW.

[HockeyTx82]

Model “Wheelhouse” Cheat Sheet — GFS vs Euro vs NAM

- ECMWF (Euro)
- Most accurate Days 3–7
- Best for storm tracks, large‑scale patterns, winter setups
- Loses accuracy after Day 8–10
- Not the best for short‑range local details

- GFS
- Most reliable Days 1–5
- Good for big‑picture trends and temperature patterns
- Starts wobbling after Day 6
- Known for flip‑flops and overdoing QPF/snow

- NAM
- Strongest 0–48 hours
- Great for precipitation type and mesoscale winter details
- Accuracy drops fast after 60 hours

I wish there was a save post option on here. Lol. This would be helpful. I can save it as a bookmark I guess. On the GFS I still see a decent period where it is snow for DFW.

Well this was a quick copilot AI search, so take it with a grain of salt, unless a professional wants to chime in and say yep that's valid.

[orangeblood]

I do believe we will get a fair amount of sleet followed by a fair amount of snow as the system takes its time exiting the state on Sunday. Would love another footer like 2010 but a lot of sleet will cut into the snow totals. Either way a winter wonderland is coming!!

Agreed, majority sleet Friday night into Saturday then transition to all snow Saturday afternoon thru Sunday morning as ULL moves across. Also, NWS will likely extend Warmings into Sunday with these trends