Texas Winter 2025-2026

[txtwister78]

As I've been highlighting for the past few days this makes all the difference in terms of impacts for folks further south in particular regarding the potential for higher ice accumulations and so very important to keep tabs on this as I think the NWS offices further south along with local media in my area in particular may be playing a little catch up with this reality.

Arctic air especially when you're talking about a 1052 high centered across the midwest is going to push and arrive much faster. Just seen it far too many times and so globals (in particular Euro which many within media use) are not as helpful across the south when it comes to surface temps/shallow arctic air.

Below you can see already the comparison between the HRRR and Euro temps at 6PM Saturday. My guess is the HRRR will continue to trend colder by then in future runs in addition to other short range guidance such as the WRF-NSSL and ARW.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/austin/t2m_f/1769126400/1769299200-7Xm5MCKlpYw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/austin/t2m_f/1769104800/1769299200-jLboTTQ9Nmc.png

I am Where’s Waldo-ing the crap out of that but having trouble spotting the difference.

Surface temps are about 5-6 degrees colder on the HRRR at 6pm compared to the Euro and clearly below freezing in the southern HC meaning more time for ice to accumulate. I expect that trend to continue in future extended runs.

[TomballEd]

I am trying to decide if I should keep my husband home on Saturday afternoon to watch the Aggies play basketball rather than watch from our seats in Reed Arena.

Probably depends on where you live. If in College Station or south it’s probably ok. It’s not forecast to drop to freezing there until 10pm Saturday night. (According to NWS point forecast). Of course check the NWS as we get closer.

Yell loud!

I think Alabama is playing Tennessee, they won a court injunction for someone who has had 3 different NBA contracts to play. NIL is bad, Alabama is worse. I hope they forfeit every game this guy plays in.

Back in SETX, I've seen the HRRR, Euro might be a degree or two warm in Houston, but precip ends long before freezing air arrives. Not a forecast bust for HGX here, they know what is almost certain to happen, they are just erring on the side of caution. I don't think CLL changes to light freezing rain until after midnight,

[txtwister78]

I am trying to decide if I should keep my husband home on Saturday afternoon to watch the Aggies play basketball rather than watch from our seats in Reed Arena.

Probably depends on where you live. If in College Station or south it’s probably ok. It’s not forecast to drop to freezing there until 10pm Saturday night. (According to NWS point forecast). Of course check the NWS as we get closer.

Yell loud!

I think Alabama is playing Tennessee, they won a court injunction for someone who has had 3 different NBA contracts to play. NIL is bad, Alabama is worse. I hope they forfeit every game this guy plays in.

Back in SETX, I've seen the HRRR, Euro might be a degree or two warm in Houston, but precip ends long before freezing air arrives. Not a forecast bust for HGX here, they know what is almost certain to happen, they are just erring on the side of caution. I don't think CLL changes to light freezing rain until after midnight,

It will take a little longer for the arctic air to spill into SE TX due to the shadow effect that as discussed a few days ago clearly shows up on models.

[CaptinCrunch]

The freezing line is now in the NW Texas panhandle.

I have to disagree as to were the surface front is actually located. The front is just south or a line from Topeka KS to Lincoln KS. The dew points will drop to single digits in the cold dry air, plus the winds are pretty gusty with the front as it moves through.

Lincoln KS 30F

Humidity 40%
Wind Speed NE 23 G 28 mph
Barometer 30.27 in
Dewpoint 9°F (-13°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 17°F (-8°C)
Last update 22 Jan 8:35 pm CST

Topeka KS 30F

Humidity 41%
Wind Speed N 14 mph
Barometer 30.31 in (1027.6 mb)
Dewpoint 9°F (-13°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 19°F (-7°C)
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Tulsa OK 47F

Humidity 36%
Wind Speed SE 3 mph
Barometer 30.16 in (1021.5 mb)
Dewpoint 21°F (-6°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Gage OK 39F

Humidity 82%
Wind Speed S 7 mph
Barometer 30.08 in (1019.7 mb)
Dewpoint 34°F (1°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 34°F (1°C)
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Dalhart TX 37F Topography

Humidity 46%
Wind Speed NE 12 mph
Barometer 30.06 in (1018.3 mb)
Dewpoint 18°F (-8°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 29°F (-2°C)
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

[jasons2k]

The freezing line is now in the NW Texas panhandle.

I have to disagree as to were the surface front is actually located. The front is just south or a line from Topeka KS to Lincoln KS.

Lincoln KS 30F

Humidity 40%
Wind Speed NE 23 G 28 mph
Barometer 30.27 in
Dewpoint 9°F (-13°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 17°F (-8°C)
Last update 22 Jan 8:35 pm CST

Topeka KS 30F

Humidity 41%
Wind Speed N 14 mph
Barometer 30.31 in (1027.6 mb)
Dewpoint 9°F (-13°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 19°F (-7°C)
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Tulsa OK 47F

Humidity 36%
Wind Speed SE 3 mph
Barometer 30.16 in (1021.5 mb)
Dewpoint 21°F (-6°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Gage OK 39F

Humidity 82%
Wind Speed S 7 mph
Barometer 30.08 in (1019.7 mb)
Dewpoint 34°F (1°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 34°F (1°C)
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Dalhart TX 37F Topography

Humidity 46%
Wind Speed NE 12 mph
Barometer 30.06 in (1018.3 mb)
Dewpoint 18°F (-8°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 29°F (-2°C)
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

It’s 30 in Stratford, 27 near Texline, and 24 in Clayton, NM.

Llano Estacado.

[txtwister78]

0z WRF-ARW is in and as just mentioned another example and this is noon Saturday folks. Not even close to what Euro or GFS for that matter has progged for surface temps.

[HockeyTx82]

0z WRF-ARW is in and as just mentioned another example and this is noon Saturday folks. Not even close to what Euro or GFS for that matter has progged for surface temps.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ncep-wrf-arw-conus/tx/t2m_f/1769126400/1769277600-a7m9QZ0DB5M.png

Looks like Wxman57 needs to head to Brownsville.

[wxman22]

3K NAM

[Longhornmaniac8]

Not surprisingly, it looks like some of the higher resolution models are initializing colder and handling these airmasses better than we know the global models do. My question is, does this "extra" cold, should it verify, apply only to the lowest levels of the air column (say 1000-850) or is the entire airmass colder?

And if it were to be, say, 5 degrees colder than the GFS or Euro are currently showing, would that lead to a quicker changeover to sleet due to the larger sub-freezing layer? Implicit within that assumption is that it would mean freezing rain would also begin earlier due to the sub-freezing surface temps arriving sooner, so I'm not necessarily asking whether we'd have less freezing rain but rather would sleet begin sooner?

[Quixotic]

I’m leaning more Dec 2013 than Feb 2011. 2013 was a shorter event. 2011 we had thunder sleet initially, a 24 hour pause and then the 4-6” snow thump. This time it looks like a 36 hour event with mostly sleet with a 2” snow thump. 2011 was like maybe an 1” of sleet/ice. Completely undriveable. Once the snow hit traction was available however my front fender was plowing through snow in curb drifts. Either way, it’s better than 85 degree Christmas.

This setup reminds me a lot of the event we had March 4-5, 1989. Arctic front blew through early morning hours of the 4th. We had several rounds of sleet, including some thunder sleet, that lasted through mid-afternoon. Then a lull in the action until late night on the 4th/5th when another round came through with some heavier sleet that changed to a pretty decent snow. I don't think that storm had the size and heft of this one in terms of regional scope though.

Yeah. I remember that one. Did a lot of sledding on cardboard on that one. Think this one will be heavier.

[BradKingK]

0z WRF-ARW is in and as just mentioned another example and this is noon Saturday folks. Not even close to what Euro or GFS for that matter has progged for surface temps.

Maybe share the comparative data so we don't have to track it down? That would be appreciated.

[bubba hotep]

00z ICON

[Iceresistance]

I don't remember the last time the NBM was this aggressive


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bk3zY.gif

[Captmorg70]

00z ICON

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/icon/2026012300/072/snod-imp.us_sc.png

The ICON doesn’t show sleet correct? That’s the best it’s looked for DFW

[wxman22]

0z WRF models, the freezing line is much further south than other models.

[Ntxw]

I get it warm nose is a warm nose but man, I just don't recall seeing 10-18F and a warm nose preventing snow. That's just insane.

[Captmorg70]

I get it warm nose is a warm nose but man, I just don't recall seeing 10-18F and a warm nose preventing snow. That's just insane.

Feel the same way. My brain honestly can’t comprehend it.

[Snowman67]

The freezing line is now in the NW Texas panhandle.

I have to disagree as to were the surface front is actually located. The front is just south or a line from Topeka KS to Lincoln KS.

Lincoln KS 30F

Humidity 40%
Wind Speed NE 23 G 28 mph
Barometer 30.27 in
Dewpoint 9°F (-13°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 17°F (-8°C)
Last update 22 Jan 8:35 pm CST

Topeka KS 30F

Humidity 41%
Wind Speed N 14 mph
Barometer 30.31 in (1027.6 mb)
Dewpoint 9°F (-13°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 19°F (-7°C)
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Tulsa OK 47F

Humidity 36%
Wind Speed SE 3 mph
Barometer 30.16 in (1021.5 mb)
Dewpoint 21°F (-6°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Gage OK 39F

Humidity 82%
Wind Speed S 7 mph
Barometer 30.08 in (1019.7 mb)
Dewpoint 34°F (1°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 34°F (1°C)
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Dalhart TX 37F Topography

Humidity 46%
Wind Speed NE 12 mph
Barometer 30.06 in (1018.3 mb)
Dewpoint 18°F (-8°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 29°F (-2°C)
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

It’s 30 in Stratford, 27 near Texline, and 24 in Clayton, NM.

Llano Estacado.

Dalhart weather station reporting 32F on Weather Underground.

[Iceresistance]

I know the RRFS is an experimental model, but I don't remember seeing 30+ inches of snow from a single storm for Oklahoma.

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bk3Mq.png

[txtwister78]

0z WRF-ARW is in and as just mentioned another example and this is noon Saturday folks. Not even close to what Euro or GFS for that matter has progged for surface temps.

Maybe share the comparative data so we don't have to track it down? That would be appreciated.

I did. Go back a page and look at my post regarding what the Euro has progged for surface temps compared to the HRRR and the ARW in particular but this is all public available information that you can also readily track on tropical tidbits or Pivotal Weather.